Challenges aplenty for AIADMK as it prepares to be the Opposition

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may have put up a spirited fight against the DMK alliance and emerged as a strong Opposition party in Tamil Nadu Assembly, but the problems and challenges for the party are far from over.

Keeping the flock together, not letting the faultlines within the organisation become visible in public, and functioning as an “effective Opposition party” are some of the immediate challenges.

Under J Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK was accused of being an “ineffective Opposition” during 2006-2011 with the former chief minister barely stepping out of her palatial Poes Garden bungalow. The AIADMK, which has pulled off its best performance in a losing election by securing 66 seats, will be under pressure to change the image, and function as an effective opposition party.

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Though not immediately, the party leadership might come under pressure to allow the merger of the AMMK led by V K Sasikala’s nephew T T V Dhinakaran with the party to set the house in order. Dhinakaran’s AMMK may have scored just 2.35% vote share, but the party ended up spoiling the chances of AIADMK in over 20 constituencies.

A close look at the election results shows the AMMK did fare well in a few pockets in Central, and Southern Tamil Nadu. Leaders from the Mukulathor community, to which O Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran belong, might push for the merger in the “interests of the party.”

While OPS may not have any reservations, outgoing chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, who is opposed to both Sasikala and Dhinakaran, might be apprehensive of allowing even one of them into the party. It was EPS who had stonewalled the efforts by BJP to bring the two factions together before assembly elections—the BJP had even identified seats where the AMMK could play the spoilsport for the AIADMK.

Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, said reconciliation between the two factions of AIADMK was now inevitable. “Only if the AIADMK and AMMK come on the same line, the party will be considered as one. Till then, the AIADMK will continue to face one crisis after the other. Unless Sasikala’s supporters also come and join, the AIADMK will not be full,” he said.

The professor added that the BJP might make yet another attempt to bring the two factions together. However, senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh has a different take. “AIADMK’s electoral setback could also throw open the gates for deserters to flee to greener pastures and safer places. And here, the BJP would be more than a willing host,” Singh told DH.

Even as things stand today, the leadership issue in the party has not been addressed fully. The dual leadership formula arrived at in 2017 has worked so far but it remains to be seen whether the party will continue with the current arrangement or attempt at changing equations at the top.

Under the arrangement, O Panneerselvam was made coordinator of AIADMK and Edappadi K Palaniswami as joint coordinator—in the government, EPS was the Chief Minister, and OPS his deputy. Though there are ample indications that Palaniswami may be elected as leader of the AIADMK Legislative Party meeting scheduled for Friday, there will be stiff resistance from Panneerselvam towards attempts by the other side to take over the party.

Though Panneerselvam refused to share the burden of campaigning for the AIADMK along with Palaniswami, the long-time protégé of Jayalalithaa cannot be brushed aside that too when the party is no longer in the government.

“Challenges for the AIADMK are aplenty. The leadership that emerges—the popular view in the party is that EPS be made Opposition Leader for he led the party to a good number of seats—should find ways to remain politically relevant while allowing Chief Minister M K Stalin his honeymoon,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH.

Singh added that the DMK’s promise of constituting a special court to look into cases of corruption during the previous AIADMK regime would already be giving nightmares to many former ministers. It is a fact that allegations of corruption against many AIADMK leaders have reached courts with NGOs that fight graft filing cases seeking registration of cases.

Prof. Manivannan feels the leadership issue within the AIADMK will not be solved any time soon. “I feel EPS will get his due as Opposition Leader, but he should allow OPS to continue in his current role of the party coordinator. If he or his faction tries to disturb him, OPS will challenge the attempt, pushing the party into another crisis,” he said.

Singh said it won’t be easy for EPS to sideline OPS in any way as the party has won seats in southern districts too. “Thevars the community to which OPS belongs, have always supported the AIADMK, and a section has been upset with Sasikala being side-lining in the party. Any attempt to overthrow OPS might alienate the Thevars further from the AIADMK,” he said.

Political analyst P Ramajayam feels the AIADMK would continue to face the heat from the new DMK government on its controversial policy decisions both inside and outside the Assembly.

“Some of the policy decisions taken by the EPS Government would come back to haunt the AIADMK as it prepares to occupy the opposition benches in the Assembly. With many former ministers having won, the DMK may try to put the party on the mat on several issues. Politically, this will be a huge challenge,” Ramajayam said.