From Paris to Glasgow, climate action needs a big push

This year’s Nobel Committee announced the Nobel Prize for Physics for climate model and understanding of the physical system just weeks before the Glasgow Climate summit. Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann, two out of the three winners of the year, studied large-scale global forces that shape our daily lives and laid the foundation of our knowledge of the earth’s climate and how human actions influence it.

Climate Action Tracker (CAT) of Germany-based non-profit group ‘Climate Analytics’, in its report in November 2020, had rated India ‘almost sufficient’ for its climate actions for 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise compatible under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The report added that India is the only G20 nation on course to fulfil its pledges of nationally determined contribution (NDC). Further, G20 nations account for 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

As extreme weather events are experienced globally, the CAT rating is made more stringent to include climate action targets as per NDC, mid-century net zero-emission goals and 1.5 degrees Celsius compatibility. This month, the CAT has rated us in the ‘highly insufficient category’ along with China, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Argentina and Mexico. Further, the UK, Germany, Japan, USA, Nepal and 12 others are rated either in the ‘almost sufficient’ category or ‘insufficient category’ due to upgradation of climate action goals and pledging net zero by mid-century. The report also noted that the UK’s domestic targets are 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible; however, the policies of the country and international support do not match.

The report mentions that India’s rating is brought down because NDC does not include our decision to set up 450 GW renewable energy by 2030 as also the ‘green hydrogen’ projects announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the Red Fort on August 15. Even the Indian Railways has announced to be net zero by 2030. Our rating is thus downgraded because of technical glitches, which can always be corrected.

At the G20 energy and climate joint ministerial meeting two months earlier in Napier, India’s Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav said that some countries pledged net zero emission of carbon neutrality by 2050, which is a change of goal post of what was fixed in Paris in 2015. He also added, “The momentum of climate action can only be accelerated when there is enough support through means of implementation including finance and technology." Also, India requested the members of G20 nations to bring down their per capita emissions below the global average. India’s per capita emission is one-seventh of the US, two-sevenths of China and one-third of the EU.

The maximum GHG emissions in each of the recent years are by China — nearly 14.1 Gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent per year, which is 25 per cent of annual global emissions. India’s annual emission is 3.7 Gt CO2 equivalent, only one-fourth of China, and is the fourth-highest globally. The US and the EU — in the second and third positions respectively — emit 6.6 and 4.1 Gt annually.

India’s call to Western countries to slash emissions to the level of global per capita average is clearly putting China in an advantageous position, as it is the only country with a larger population than us. China has 88.1 GW coal-fired power units under construction and 158 GW is announced and in the pipeline. Even if accelerated retirement of older plants is permitted, China would continue to increase its coal-fired generation at least till 2035, the year announced to peak the emissions. And in response to the call from the US and the EU to be net zero by 2050, China has fixed 2060 for itself.

US climate envoy John Kerry has been visiting nations with high GHG emissions and persuading for early transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles. He visited India twice in the last six months to make us pledge net zero by mid-century. China, adamant on fossil fuel-related growth, should come on board first. It would be quite challenging for India to lift several million people into more middle-class lifestyles if the fossil fuel-based economy is abruptly shut. A transition to a green economy at affordable costs is dependent on appropriate technologies, which are being researched all across the globe.

John Kerry was recently confronted on an Indian television channel with a question as to why should developing countries like India be asked to shut down fossil fuel-based businesses and industries while developed countries are responsible for warming the planet. His answer was that the CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere is reaching a dangerous level and the latest IPCC report (VI in the series) has indicated 'red alert' and shows only a small window of hope if emissions are cut drastically. He further added that whether it is emission from India or China or the US, the consequences are the same.

British MP Alok Sharma, who is the COP26 president for the Glasgow climate summit scheduled from November 1 to November 12, has also been visiting countries to find favour for more ambitious NDC targets to cut emissions. He highlighted four goals from COP26 during his visit to India. These are — overreaching ambition of keeping 1.50 degrees C within reach, financial support from developed nations to developing countries, those with adaptation plans to come forward and closing of Article 6 from the Paris rulebook. He added that international investors are increasingly reluctant to invest in coal power. They have understood that they may end up with stranded assets in some years. They are also seeing that the prices of renewable — solar, offshore, wind — have been coming down significantly, which will help drive the movement in transition to clean energy.

We are facing climatic catastrophes at an average rise of 1.1 degrees Celsius in global temperature. It increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius if 400 Gt of CO2 equivalent is additionally emitted in the atmosphere. At the rate of 60 Gt annually, this narrow window will be closed in about seven years. Slashing emissions by 2030 should be the priority, and not net zero by mid-century. COP26 should focus on these actionable points.

(The writer is a retired Principal Chief Conservator of Forests, Karnataka)