<p>With the appointment of Raj Babbar as president of Congress in Uttar Pradesh (UP), all four major players – Congress, BJP, SP and BSP – have their party organisations in the state headed by the other backward caste (OBCs) leaders. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The ruling Samajwadi Party is headed by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav (upper OBC), BSP has recently appointed Ramachal Rajbhar (most-backward) as party president after the exit of its OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya, the BJP made Keshav Prasad Maurya (most-backward) state president, and now, Raj Babbar of Congress comes from more-backward caste (sonar/goldsmith).<br /><br />This is clear indication of growing clout of OBCs in forthcoming electoral battle in UP in 2017 and clear realisation by parties that they have to rope in OBCs to win elections. The OBCs in UP are a formidable force. They constitute 40-54% of state population accordance to various estimates (NSSO: 41%, Mandal Commission: 52%, Hukum Singh Committee: 54%).<br /><br />Hence, their support is crucial to parties. But they are not homogenised. They are divided into one-upper-OBC (Yadav/ Ahir), eight more-backwards (Sonar, Jat, Kurmi, Giri, Gujjars, Gosain, Lodhs and Kamboj) and 70 most-backward castes (Maurya, Kushwaha, Gaderia, Kewat/Nishad, Mallah, Kahar etc). <br /><br />The share of these respective caste groups among OBCs is 20% Yadavs, 19% more-backwards and 61% most-backwards. That proves that most backward castes are the most dominant among OBCs.<br /><br />The traditional support system of OBCs to political parties had been fragmented. While Yadavs generally support Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP, Kurmis and more-backwards side with BJP. That is because there is rivalry between these two OBC groups at social level. The third group, most-backward castes, had been unattached and open for poaching. Some of them felt close to BSP and Dalits while others went to different parties. <br /><br />One very significant failure of SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav had been his inability to carry forward agrarian politics of his mentor Chaudhury Charan Singh by not taking it to all parts of the state and by not transcending beyond Yadavs and attempt homogenisation of OBCs as a whole.<br /><br />Mulayam not only dented Ram Manohar Lohia’s socialist orientation but also converted SP into narrow and sectarian ca-ste party. The goodbye to socialism and agrarianism is now sure to cost Mulayam-Akhilesh and their party heavily. That was amply demonstrated in 2014 LS polls when the SP lost 18 seats and could win only five seats. <br /><br />In 2017 assembly elections, the odds would be against SP as it may face anti-incumbency for its failure on law-and-order front and its patronising ‘Yadavisation’ and criminalisation.<br />It’s inducting of criminal Ateeq Ahmad during LS elections and recently merging mafia king Mukhtaar Ansari’s Quami Ekta Dal (QED) with the party reinforced peoples’ perception that SP patronised criminals. However, the hue and cry over this was so loud even within SP that the party had to rescind QED’s merger. <br /><br />Earlier, in 2014 LS polls, BJP received 27% Yadav, 53% more-backwards and 60% most-backwards votes. That was a clear testimony that it was able to redefine and reconfigure OBC support system and backward caste discourse in the state. <br /><br />BJP and OBCs<br /><br />To reinvigorate that, BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya, who belongs to most backward caste, as its party president. That was not only reward to the most backward caste for its support in LS elections but also an indication of the party’s continued relationship with them. <br /><br />The SP might be worried on that count because its non-Yadav OBC support was reduced to half during last two polls. If that trend continues in the assembly elections, it could be suicidal for SP as its majority government in UP rests on a mere vote share of 29%, lowest since independence.<br /><br />Also, new Kurmi (OBC) player from Bihar in Nitish Kumar’s JD-U is jumping in UP polls. To offset all that, SP has no option but to reach out to the most-backwards. Hence, it might have engineered Swami Prasad Maurya’s defection from BSP. However, Swami is yet to decide his political future. There are reports indicating his willingness to join BJP, but party president Keshav Prasad Maurya is reluctant at that as he does not want two big Mauryas in BJP. <br /><br />It is intriguing why Mayawati does not realise this. Why she loses her most trusted leaders at eve of elections, especially the ones from the OBC. She had lost Babu Singh Kushwaha (most-backward) just before 2012 assembly elections, and now, she has lost Swami Prasad Maurya (again most-backward). Given the fact that marginal loss of 4.5% votes cost Mayawati 126 seats in 2012 assembly polls should have been clear signal not to risk such losses.<br /><br />Is Mayawati redefining her electoral strategy? Is she reverting to her original caste based identity politics? Does that also reflect greater sharpening of Dalit vs OBC in UP? Is she pushing BJP to compete with SP for OBC votes, trying to precipitate fractured mandate with the intent of playing king-maker’s role with her party’s support to BJP? <br /><br />Or, is she up to second social engineering? These questions are hard to answer right now, but surely point to an electoral battle dominated by OBCs and the possibility of reconfiguring OBC discourse in UP.<br /><em><br />(The writer is Chair, Department of Political Science, Christ Church College, Kanpur)</em><br /><br /></p>
<p>With the appointment of Raj Babbar as president of Congress in Uttar Pradesh (UP), all four major players – Congress, BJP, SP and BSP – have their party organisations in the state headed by the other backward caste (OBCs) leaders. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The ruling Samajwadi Party is headed by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav (upper OBC), BSP has recently appointed Ramachal Rajbhar (most-backward) as party president after the exit of its OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya, the BJP made Keshav Prasad Maurya (most-backward) state president, and now, Raj Babbar of Congress comes from more-backward caste (sonar/goldsmith).<br /><br />This is clear indication of growing clout of OBCs in forthcoming electoral battle in UP in 2017 and clear realisation by parties that they have to rope in OBCs to win elections. The OBCs in UP are a formidable force. They constitute 40-54% of state population accordance to various estimates (NSSO: 41%, Mandal Commission: 52%, Hukum Singh Committee: 54%).<br /><br />Hence, their support is crucial to parties. But they are not homogenised. They are divided into one-upper-OBC (Yadav/ Ahir), eight more-backwards (Sonar, Jat, Kurmi, Giri, Gujjars, Gosain, Lodhs and Kamboj) and 70 most-backward castes (Maurya, Kushwaha, Gaderia, Kewat/Nishad, Mallah, Kahar etc). <br /><br />The share of these respective caste groups among OBCs is 20% Yadavs, 19% more-backwards and 61% most-backwards. That proves that most backward castes are the most dominant among OBCs.<br /><br />The traditional support system of OBCs to political parties had been fragmented. While Yadavs generally support Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP, Kurmis and more-backwards side with BJP. That is because there is rivalry between these two OBC groups at social level. The third group, most-backward castes, had been unattached and open for poaching. Some of them felt close to BSP and Dalits while others went to different parties. <br /><br />One very significant failure of SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav had been his inability to carry forward agrarian politics of his mentor Chaudhury Charan Singh by not taking it to all parts of the state and by not transcending beyond Yadavs and attempt homogenisation of OBCs as a whole.<br /><br />Mulayam not only dented Ram Manohar Lohia’s socialist orientation but also converted SP into narrow and sectarian ca-ste party. The goodbye to socialism and agrarianism is now sure to cost Mulayam-Akhilesh and their party heavily. That was amply demonstrated in 2014 LS polls when the SP lost 18 seats and could win only five seats. <br /><br />In 2017 assembly elections, the odds would be against SP as it may face anti-incumbency for its failure on law-and-order front and its patronising ‘Yadavisation’ and criminalisation.<br />It’s inducting of criminal Ateeq Ahmad during LS elections and recently merging mafia king Mukhtaar Ansari’s Quami Ekta Dal (QED) with the party reinforced peoples’ perception that SP patronised criminals. However, the hue and cry over this was so loud even within SP that the party had to rescind QED’s merger. <br /><br />Earlier, in 2014 LS polls, BJP received 27% Yadav, 53% more-backwards and 60% most-backwards votes. That was a clear testimony that it was able to redefine and reconfigure OBC support system and backward caste discourse in the state. <br /><br />BJP and OBCs<br /><br />To reinvigorate that, BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya, who belongs to most backward caste, as its party president. That was not only reward to the most backward caste for its support in LS elections but also an indication of the party’s continued relationship with them. <br /><br />The SP might be worried on that count because its non-Yadav OBC support was reduced to half during last two polls. If that trend continues in the assembly elections, it could be suicidal for SP as its majority government in UP rests on a mere vote share of 29%, lowest since independence.<br /><br />Also, new Kurmi (OBC) player from Bihar in Nitish Kumar’s JD-U is jumping in UP polls. To offset all that, SP has no option but to reach out to the most-backwards. Hence, it might have engineered Swami Prasad Maurya’s defection from BSP. However, Swami is yet to decide his political future. There are reports indicating his willingness to join BJP, but party president Keshav Prasad Maurya is reluctant at that as he does not want two big Mauryas in BJP. <br /><br />It is intriguing why Mayawati does not realise this. Why she loses her most trusted leaders at eve of elections, especially the ones from the OBC. She had lost Babu Singh Kushwaha (most-backward) just before 2012 assembly elections, and now, she has lost Swami Prasad Maurya (again most-backward). Given the fact that marginal loss of 4.5% votes cost Mayawati 126 seats in 2012 assembly polls should have been clear signal not to risk such losses.<br /><br />Is Mayawati redefining her electoral strategy? Is she reverting to her original caste based identity politics? Does that also reflect greater sharpening of Dalit vs OBC in UP? Is she pushing BJP to compete with SP for OBC votes, trying to precipitate fractured mandate with the intent of playing king-maker’s role with her party’s support to BJP? <br /><br />Or, is she up to second social engineering? These questions are hard to answer right now, but surely point to an electoral battle dominated by OBCs and the possibility of reconfiguring OBC discourse in UP.<br /><em><br />(The writer is Chair, Department of Political Science, Christ Church College, Kanpur)</em><br /><br /></p>