Sri Lanka's new leaders of 'change' face daunting challenges ahead

The election of centre-left Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the President of Sri Lanka is historic and unique. It is historic because it marks the first time the nation has trusted a party and leader with minimal politico-administrative experience and limited electoral reach to take on the challenging task of governance, even during more stable times. This is even more significant in these days of halting economic recovery following the multiple crises that rocked the nation and its consciousness two years ago.

It is also unique because, for the first time, the nation has elected a President with less than 50 per cent of the vote share, which had otherwise been the norm and precedent. While the law provides for what is euphemistically called second and third preference votes in case no candidate crosses the halfway mark, this mechanism had never been tested in the past. The lack of awareness meant that the outcome of the process was too insignificant to influence the final result in any meaningful way.

As the final results showed, Dissanayake garnered less than 43 per cent of the vote share, while his two immediate runners-up together surpassed the 50 per cent threshold, albeit marginally. Already, there is talk of first runner-up Sajith Premadasa’s Samagi Balawegaya (SJB) and the second runner-up and outgoing President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) forming an alliance for the parliamentary elections, which the new President has scheduled for 14 November. The fact that the SJB is the more popular breakaway faction of the UNP, the nation’s Grand Old Party (GoP), makes a possible reunification, in some form, feasible—especially now that Wickremesinghe has retired from electoral politics. This could pose a significant challenge for the JVP-NPP coalition in the parliamentary elections.

Dissanayake was one of only three MPs representing the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP) in the 225-member House. Encouraging and practising floor-crossing has long been a preoccupation of Sri Lankan parliamentarians. However, there is no way the new rulers could facilitate defections, as doing so would be contrary to the very principles of incorruptible political and administrative practices they have long championed while being a small part of a divided and alternating opposition.

This natural, and at times consciously cultivated, image of the JVP—more recently in alliance with the NPP—centres on ‘principled politics.’ This may have helped the party distance itself from its earlier image as a violent insurgent group since its inception in the mid-1960s. However, the fact that JVP founder Rohana Wijeweera reverted to insurgent methods after briefly participating in mainstream democratic politics and contesting the 1982 presidential election made the party’s post-insurgency mainstreaming efforts seem fragile, if not reversible. Their constant demand for a ‘systems change’ without clearly defining it did not help either.

Of, by and for ‘change’

The current government claims to be a government of, by and for ‘change,’ as the JVP-NPP’s slogan for the presidential election proclaimed. Ironically, this could remain true if they fail to secure a parliamentary majority. In such a case, it would result in a ‘cohabitation government,’ a model with which the nation has had limited success.

For instance, in 2004, President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga dismissed the government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and dissolved Parliament two years before elections were due. The law now allows such a dissolution only six months before the expiry of Parliament’s five-year term, compared to the previous four years.

Unacknowledged by them and unchallenged by the divided and dispirited opposition, which has already turned its focus to the parliamentary elections, Dissanayake’s maiden Prime Minister, Harini Amarasuriya — only the third woman to hold this office after Sirimavo Bandaranaike — now holds the dubious distinction of being sworn in when all stakeholders knew she would not (have to) face Parliament even once. If the JVP were in opposition, they would have decried this as a constitutional violation, staged street protests and moved the Supreme Court on the matter.

As President, Dissanayake has otherwise made a relatively strong start. Contrary to expectations, he has retained experienced bureaucrats in senior positions, acknowledging that his government is not yet wholly popular. His ministers, even if the alliance wins a parliamentary majority, would still need time and experience to adjust to their new roles. Among the undisturbed ministerial secretaries are those in the crucial ministries of finance and foreign affairs.

Blind men and the elephant

The stock market has shown faith in the new leadership. Unlike in 2005, when the JVP was part of a victorious presidential coalition, the market did not react negatively this time.

The new President has held detailed discussions with the Central Bank governor and his team, opting not to reshuffle them. After all, the government will need to negotiate more favourable terms with the IMF on the bailout package arranged by the outgoing administration.

This issue took on electoral significance, with the JVP-NPP leadership making firm promises to secure price and tariff reductions through such negotiations. For now, the IMF, World Bank, ADB, and other institutions have all pledged to work with the new government — whether or not the hard negotiations begin now, as Dissanayake has promised, or must wait until after the parliamentary elections.

For the new leadership to survive — starting with the parliamentary elections — they must maintain the support of their traditional constituencies: farm labourers, trade unions and student unions. Added to this is the recent inclusion of the urban middle class, traditionally adversarial, but which has swung to the JVP this time. This complex web of expectations from various groups is akin to the story of the ‘Blind Men and the Elephant.’

For now, the JVP-sympathetic schoolteachers’ union has called on the new government to address their long-pending demands for pay rationalisation, among others. Additionally, there is the previous government’s commitment to increase government employees’ salaries by LKR 25,000 per month, alongside the new government’s promise to raise farm subsidies by LKR 25,000, all of which the Dissanayake government’s budget for fiscal 2025, commencing 1 January, will need to accommodate.

Easier said than done

Both President Dissanayake and Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath have stated that Sri Lanka will maintain friendships with both India and China. Given the nation’s geostrategic and geopolitical realities, such a balancing act is easier said than done. India’s High Commissioner Santosh Jha was the first foreign dignitary to call on the President-elect and the new Prime Minister and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first world leader to congratulate the new government.

Barring a few stray and unsubstantiated social media posts, there have been no serious complaints about New Delhi interfering in the presidential election. This non-interventionist approach has long been India’s policy, regardless of who is in power.

Nevertheless, India, as always, will continue to support the people of Sri Lanka, as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar reiterated during the height of the economic crisis and mass Aragalaya protests two years ago. This commitment may soon be tested, given the expected Indian position at the upcoming UNHRC vote on a renewed/revised US-led resolution on a war crimes probe, just as the new government finds itself unprepared to address the situation or even establish contacts.

(The writer is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator.)