The battle royale for Congress's survival begins

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cannot afford the revival of the Congress and will do everything to ensure it remains on the ventilator. Two events are in preparation for the do-or-die battle for the future of the Congress. How they unfold will determine if the party survives. The BJP will undoubtedly pull out all the stops to undermine them.

The first event is the Congress' mega-rally against price rise and growing unemployment planned for Sunday, September 4. Just three days later, the Congress will launch its biggest effort at mass mobilisation in recent times – a 3,500 km long march, dubbed "Bharat Jodo Yatra" (BJY) from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu to Srinagar in Jammu and Kashmir. It hopes that by channelling the support of unemployed youth, farmers and workers across the country, the way will be paved for its revival and set a new political agenda for the party.

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The BJP will surely try to create a series of counter-narratives using friendly media. Distractions will be fabricated to draw public attention away from the economic and social issues raised by the BJY. Some elements of the BJP's strategy are slowly revealing themselves.

Congress rebel Ghulam Nabi Azad might be an important cog in this scenario. He has continued to attack Rahul Gandhi and the Congress despite exiting the party. Now he has announced the launch of his new party in Jammu on September 4, the same day when the Congress begins its "Mehangai par halla bol" or anti-price-rise rally at Delhi's iconic Ramlila Ground. By coincidence, Azad's exit from the Congress on August 22 was timed to clash with the Congress press conference about its proposed anti-price rise rally. Azad's five-page resignation letter abusing Rahul Gandhi managed to hijack the event. His subsequent meetings attacking the Congress also coincided with Congress media briefings in different states, listing dates and places of public meetings for the BJY. Azad's shadow looming over every event associated with the BJY suggests that it is not just in Jammu and Kashmir that he is willing to be the BJP's catspaw.

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Azad's Jammu rally precedes the Congress' anti-price rally in Delhi by a few hours on the morning of September 4. The Congress' criticism of the Centre's mismanagement of the economy could well be undermined by unsavoury personal comments against Rahul Gandhi that Azad might make just hours before. The mainstream media, eager to please the ruling dispensation, will be quite happy to capitalise on juicy comments and amplify them to crowd out a debate on price-rise, unemployment and the economy. These are issues on which the Modi government is on the backfoot.

Azad's rally could undermine the Congress rally in Delhi further if national leaders associated with the rebel Congress group G-23 were to share the platform with Azad in Jammu.

To make its Ramlila Ground rally a success, the Congress will depend crucially on mustering crowds from neighbouring Haryana, as nearly 40 to 50 per cent of the audience for such rallies in Delhi usually comes from Haryana. Mobilisation from Rajasthan and Delhi comes a close second. The party will have to depend on the support of Haryana Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda who is, however, an original member of the rebel G-23 group. He even visited Azad days after he charted his exit from the Congress. If Hooda shares Azad's misgivings and fails to bus-in crowds for the Ramlila Ground rally, the BJP propaganda machine will go into overdrive to declare it a failure. A knock-on effect could be felt on the BJY because Sunday's anti-price rise rally is expected to set the momentum for the Congress' long march.

However, such tactics may not completely bomb out the BJY. The march will begin in Tamil Nadu, with the participation of the state's Chief Minister M K Stalin, and where the BJP does not enjoy a significant mass base. It then passes through several states of South India, where the Congress has a substantial cadre and is expected to organise a successful march because of this. The tone and political narrative of the BJY will therefore be set long before it moves up North, where its support is weaker. It must hope that the momentum generated in the South will propel its success nationally.

Will such logistic planning ensure the success of the BJY? Whether it successfully generates a new political narrative will depend much on whether Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will walk the talk. Will he participate in BJY all the way, without the sudden breaks for which he has been criticised earlier? If his participation is consistent, he will have disproved the BJP propaganda of being a reluctant politician who is erratic in his political commitment. If, however, he were to leave the yatra suddenly or take a break, then the consequences for him and the Congress would be disastrous – strengthening all the negative stereotypes about his leadership of the party.

The long march takes place simultaneously with the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat elections. Although the BJY will skirt those states, it will have a direct impact on the campaign and election atmosphere there. The Congress has sought and apparently received the promise of participation by some NGOs and civil society organisations. This could be a boon both in terms of mobilising participants for the BJY and broadening the political appeal of the Congress. The BJP can be expected to lampoon such supporters as 'urban Naxals'. But once again, if it fails to be consistent, the Congress risks losing the support of civil society, which is crucial to nursing it back to good political health.
This is clearly make-or-break time for the Congress and its leadership. With the BJP doing its damnedest to thwart them, can they rise to the occasion?

(Bharat Bhushan is a journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.