The carbon costs of the Israel-Gaza war

The war’s impact on Gaza’s agricultural lands and food security has been severe. Satellite data indicates that as of September 2024, 67.6% of Gaza’s agricultural land has been damaged.

As the war in Gaza continues to unfold, most of the attention is rightly focused on the immense human suffering and loss of life. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is dire, with thousands dead, millions displaced, and infrastructure decimated. However, one aspect of this war that is often overlooked is the environmental impact, specifically the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the military operations. 

The war’s impact on Gaza’s agricultural lands and food security has been severe. Satellite data indicates that as of September 2024, 67.6 per cent of Gaza’s agricultural land has been damaged. The latest analysis shows that around 45 per cent of the permanent crop fields and arable land in the Gaza Strip experienced a notable decrease in health and density in April 2024, compared to the average of the previous seven years. This decline severely constrains the region’s capacity to produce food and sustain its population. 

The breakdown of waste management systems, caused by severe fuel shortages, has led to the accumulation of tens of thousands of tons of residential waste in streets and makeshift dumpsites. This uncontrolled waste accumulation threatens both immediate public health and long-term environmental stability through soil and groundwater contamination, while coastal algae blooms endanger marine ecosystems.

The war has already generated an estimated 900,000 tons of toxic waste, introducing a complex mixture of hazardous materials into Gaza’s environment. These include radioactive substances, carcinogenic compounds, heavy metals, pesticides, and various chemicals released both from military munitions and destroyed infrastructure. The persistence of these pollutants in the environment creates a long-term threat to the entire ecosystem—contaminating soil, water, and air while endangering both wildlife and vegetation.

There needs to be far more serious thinking about the environmental impact of armed conflict. The use of weapons themselves and the detonation of explosives release large amounts of greenhouse gases—the main driver of climate change—and particulate matter into the atmosphere. An estimated 5.5 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are the result of military activity.

The war-related activities by the United States in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria were estimated to be responsible for 440 million tCO2e(carbon dioxide equivalent) between 2001 and 2018. The invasion of Iraq by the US-led coalition was estimated to have released around 250 million tCO2e. More recently, just the first seven months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been estimated to be responsible for at least 100 million tCO2e.

Recent research on the greenhouse gas emissions from the Israel-Gaza war reveals a startling reality. In just the first 120 days following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, the war generated more emissions than the annual output of 26 individual countries combined. This staggering figure becomes even more alarming when we consider the emissions from pre-war fortifications like Hamas’ tunnel network and Israel’s Iron Wall. When factoring in this war infrastructure, the total surpasses the yearly emissions of over 36 nations. 

Perhaps most sobering is the long-term reconstruction needs in Gaza, projected to be between 46.8 million and 60 million tonnes of CO2e, primarily due to the rebuilding of destroyed buildings. Estimates suggest that reconstruction efforts could generate emissions higher than the annual output of more than 135 countries, putting them on par with that of Sweden and Portugal. 

These figures underscore a critical gap in our global climate reporting mechanism: the lack of comprehensive military emissions reporting. Currently, reporting of military emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is voluntary, meaning countries are not obligated to disclose this data. This has led to a situation where data on military emissions is often omitted or embedded within a country’s overall emissions reports, obscuring the true extent of the military’s carbon footprint.

The lack of mandatory reporting is compounded by the absence of a universally agreed-upon methodology or scope for accounting for military emissions. This makes it challenging to compare data across countries and accurately assess the global climate impact of military activities. Even among countries that do report military emissions, the data provided is often limited to fuel use. A recent analysis by the Military Emissions Gap found that just four countries in the 2023 reporting cycle provided military fuel emission data that aligned with UNFCCC obligations. 

The reasons for this reporting gap are complex. National security concerns have long been used to justify military exemptions from environmental regulations and transparency requirements. Critics argue that such reporting could compromise military effectiveness or reveal sensitive information. However, these concerns can be addressed through careful design of reporting protocols. 

To break this cycle, we need a paradigm shift in how we approach military emissions. The UNFCCC must implement mandatory, standardised reporting requirements for armed forces worldwide. This framework should encompass not only peacetime military operations but also emissions generated during active wars and subsequent reconstruction efforts.

While the COP28 in Dubai made some progress by including discussions on the links between war and climate change, there is still much work to be done. The upcoming COP29, scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024, presents an opportunity to advance the conversation on military emissions and their impact on the environment. 

(The writer is a research analyst, China Desk, at the Takshashila Institution)