The world’s going our way

The Big Lens

India’s ability to bring the G-20 countries together for the Delhi Declaration marked the crowning success of what was a refreshingly different G-20 presidency that drew attention from all over the world. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was personally involved in all aspects of it, from setting the big agenda -- Life Style for Environment (LiFE) – to turning the G-20 meetings into people’s events, to micro-managing the specifics of the summit.

When India assumed the G-20 presidency, the world was grappling with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the post-pandemic economic headwinds, and the struggle of the stronger economies of the West to overcome the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. China was putting up a brave face in front of the world, but now we know that its economy was hurting. The country’s domestic troubles were giving the Chinese Communist Party bosses nightmares.

India, meanwhile, past Covid’s worst, was taking steps to shore up the economy and build self-reliance. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it asserted its strategic autonomy. Most importantly, through the pandemic years and the conflict, it had listened to the grievances of the Global South and sought to give them voice. Given both India’s history of leading the non-aligned movement as well as of the more proximate ‘Vaccine Maitri’, India was recognised as the natural leader to be the voice of the Global South and to help insulate this group from the ‘BRI debt-trap’ diplomacy of China, on the one hand, and the ‘aid-for-resources’ approach of the West. India not only championed bringing the African Union into the G-20, it also proposed a cooperative developmental partnership framework not only for the Global South but also for a larger group of stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific.

Meanwhile, as US-China tensions have grown apace, so has America’s stakes in India’s success, at G-20 and beyond. The West agreeing to the unoffensive (from the Russia-China point of view) “war in Ukraine” formulation and the need for a negotiated settlement in the Delhi Declaration came about not only out of the pragmatic realisation that the West could not get anything better, but also out of the need to ensure that India’s G-20 was a success. That the US was prepared to go that distance is its message to China – Washington is backing India.

It’s a message that was sought to be sent out on the economic front, too. The US-backed India-Middle East (West Asia)-Europe Corridor project is meant to challenge China’s Silk Route and BRI. That this should come just on the heels of President Biden issuing an executive order banning US investments in Chinese enterprises in sensitive technological domains must be particularly rankling Beijing. The US had backed China’s development and economic growth for over 40 years. Now, it is clear, Washington is withdrawing its favour to China, and turning to India.

While the West, worried about the global shift in power, feels the need to have an Asian democracy to power its efforts in what is no less than an existential crisis for the US-moulded international order, India, too, has placed itself in prime position to take advantage of it in terms of attracting investments and technological cooperation. It also offers the West vast human resources, new production centres and a vast market. The West’s own economic problems, supply chain disruptions, and multiple socio-political crises (including the refugee issue) are also compelling the US and Europe to recalibrate their positions on India and accord it greater importance.

On its part, India has addressed the genuine apprehensions of the West and is proving to be a good partner on global issues. New Delhi has shown its capabilities to lead the Global South, work within a democratic and cooperative economic framework, strengthen the process of uniting the stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific for an open, free and inclusive world order, and willingness to tackle contentious issues through negotiations. It is now for the West to respect India’s strategic autonomy and address India’s concerns in the region and elsewhere that impact on its national security and economic growth.

While India basks in the global spotlight and importance it is being given, it has much to do, particularly to scale up domestic production, strengthen agriculture to feed the hungry millions in a time of climate change, strengthen industry-academic interfaces to reach the next level of technological prowess and strengthen the democratic institutional framework. The West’s support cannot be taken for granted. The Modi government must look to strengthen the domestic economy and manufacturing, market mechanisms, and build a politics of consensus.