US-China rivalry has only deepened and will continue

US officials think Xi Jinping’s assessment is based on superficial analysis, wishful thinking and conservative values

Dismissing G7 foreign ministers’ (May 5th meeting) criticism of its human rights violations and other abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan as “groundless accusations” and gross interference in China’s internal affairs, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said recently that the group should not take a “high and mighty attitude” and boost the global economic recovery instead of disrupting it.

Other reports in the Chinese official media noted that the joint communiqué (JC) of the group contained “old fashioned slanderous rhetoric” and no concrete steps (of confronting China) and that the US had failed to enlist the support of its European allies who were keen to safeguard their economic interests with Beijing and more countries supported China than the US.

Earlier, the G7 foreign ministers had called on Beijing to provide “unfettered access” to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to investigate the human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang and Tibet, targeting of Uighurs and other minority groups, the existence of a large network of “political re-education” camps and reports of forced labour and sterilisations.

For the first time, Taiwan was included in the JC as the G7 underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, strong opposition to any unilateral actions (a reference to China’s threats to Taiwan) which could undermine regional stability and asked the World Health Organization (WHO) to provide meaningful participation to Taiwan in all its bodies.

The London meeting also endorsed the US position on other issues such as free and open Indo-Pacific based on rule of law, territorial integrity, and peaceful resolution of disputes with countries in the region (being threatened by China) and other issues of interest to the US.

Also read: G7 should invest $1 trillion per year for sustainable Covid-19 recovery: Report

Given that several European allies had got estranged with the US leadership following a sharp rebuke by the then US President Donald Trump, his imposition of tariffs on certain EU countries’ exports (which are still in place) and their proclivity for “strategic independence”, it represented an advance from their earlier position.

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar participated in the meeting virtually as a guest along with his counterparts from South Korea and Australia. He sought increased G7 support for the COVAX vaccine initiative, ensure fair access to vaccine stocks, uninterrupted supply chains, diversified production and generous resourcing. He promised that India would play its part.

China has remained unfazed by the outcome of the London meeting. Given that the weight of the G7 countries in the world economy has declined from about 70 per cent three decades earlier to around one third now, it believes that G7’s role in leading the global economy has irretrievably weakened.

Four years of Trump’s presidency has undermined the confidence of the allies in the US. There are sharp differences among the US, its European allies such as Germany and France, some East European countries, Japan and South Korea on opposing China and weakening their economic linkages with her given that their economies are still recovering from the Covid-19 hit recession. Europe has neither the need nor the will to confront China, beyond rhetoric on selective issues, one Chinese official observed.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s remarks that the US was not trying to contain China but only upholding the rules-based world order was interpreted as a sign of its waning clout. China believes that the US is seeking cooperation with Beijing in the short term as it needs its help on issues such as climate change, WTO reforms, North Korea, Iran and others, but in the long term, it would remain China’s staunch adversary.

On a recent occasion, Chinese President Xi Jinping boasted that the handling of the Covid19 pandemic showed which art of governance (autocratic vs democratic) fared better (given China’s early recovery from the pandemic). Time and momentum were on China’s side; regardless of the challenges, Beijing was invincible.

Xi said that as long as China was able to maintain a strong economy backed by its global competitiveness in manufacturing, China would remain invincible no matter how the storm changes the world. Xi’s ultra-confidence underpinned the crowing which senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi exhibited at the Alaska meeting (March 18th) when he told US Secretary of State Blinken that the US could no longer speak to China from a position of strength.

Some US officials, however, believe that Xi’s assessment is based on superficial analysis, wishful thinking and conservative values and the situation of the US has changed in the last four months (after President Joe Biden’s taking over). The pandemic in the US is on the wane, vaccinations are increasing, economy has started humming and the US was getting increased support of its allies and ultimately a democratic, vibrant and technologically strong America would prevail over communist China, as history showed.

Whatever the truth, it is clear that the US-China rivalry has only deepened and would continue in new dimensions with global implications.

(Ambassador Yogesh Gupta is a former diplomat who writes on China-related issues.)