US politics and the next 10 months of Biden's presidency

The question for Indian diplomats and their counterparts around the world is the shape and implications of US policies during the remaining 10 months of the Joe Biden administration.

For nearly two months now, the Indian embassy in the United States has been without an Ambassador. Although leaders of both countries publicly underscore the primacy of their bilateral relations, the US embassy in India was without an Ambassador for almost two-and-a-half years after Joe Biden became President. 

Prior to now, the only time since Independence when the Indian mission in Washington was without a confirmed head was in the general chaos during the first Janata government after the Emergency. Nani Palkhivala resigned as Ambassador when the Morarji Desai government fell in 1979 and it wasn’t until the following year that the next Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, could send K R Narayanan to fill that slot. Even when pre-Independence envoy Asaf Ali was hastily pulled out from Washington to become Governor of Orissa in June 1948, the first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, rushed Benegal Rama Rau, then Ambassador in Tokyo, to take charge of the US affairs until Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit could present her credentials to the White House the following year.

Although Biden became President at the beginning of 2020, Eric Garcetti presented his credentials to the Rashtrapati Bhavan only on May 11, 2023, after many Americans and Indians loudly expressed concern about the headless US mission. If Donald Trump wins the November elections, it is very likely that India will again be without a US Ambassador from January 2025 for a long time.

In his first term as President, Trump dealt with South and Central Asia — which are clubbed together in the US system — without a point person in the state department for the vast region. During his entire tenure, Trump did not appoint an Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia through the proper course of sending a nomination to the Senate and getting the nominee confirmed, and sworn in.

The US is the world’s only remaining superpower, and this situation is emblematic of the current worries in chancelleries in major world capitals. The prospect of another Trump presidency is especially chilling for Europe and East Asia. But that can wait almost a year. The question now for Indian diplomats and their counterparts around the world is the shape and implications of US policies during the remaining 10 months of the Biden administration. This is irrespective of whether Biden is re-elected in November, or is defeated. 

There have been a series of departures from the Biden administration ahead of the approaching elections. There are new appointments for the second- and third-ranking positions in the state department, which provide clues to Biden’s changing priorities for the remainder of his term. Victoria Nuland, the administration’s most uncompromising hawk on Russia-Ukraine issues stepped down on March 5. She was acting Deputy Secretary of State — equivalent in India of a Minister of State — for seven months. But in the final assessment, Biden overlooked her in favour of a China and East Asia expert, Kurt Campbell. She remained in her permanent number three spot as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs for one more month, and quit.

Unusually, the Russians publicly commented on the departure of someone at that level in Washington. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said about Nuland leaving the Biden team: “It is simple. The failure of the anti-Russian course of the administration. Russophobia, proposed by Victoria Nuland as the main foreign policy concept of the US, is dragging the Democrats to the bottom like a stone.” Judging by the ongoing frenzy in Europe about sending ground troops to Ukraine, Zakharova’s assessment may turn out to be true.

Campbell’s confirmation in the second-highest ranking job means Biden favours a steady hand on US-China relations. With the recent emergence of a Moscow-Pyongyang axis, Biden will also use Campbell’s expertise and contacts to ensure that North Korea’s unpredictable leader, Kim Jong-un, does not fly off the handle in the run-up to his re-election. As President, Trump created history by meeting Kim. Candidate Trump has already begun sounding the bugle against Beijing.

Nuland’s replacement, although in an acting capacity, is John Bass, whose expertise on Afghanistan is unmatched in the US system. He was Ambassador in Kabul. His choice also means Biden is concerned about the current instability in Pakistan. 

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to New Delhi last month may well have been rescheduled because of the deteriorating international situation. But it also points to where India stands in Biden’s scheme of things for the remainder of 2024. 

(KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.