Uttar Pradesh population issue: Myth and reality

The right-wing propaganda that Muslims would become the majority in India is a myth intended only to misguide people

The population of India in general and of Uttar Pradesh, in particular, has been on the rise for years. But realisation about it seems to have dawned quite suddenly on the state government led by saffron-clad Yogi Adityanath only as late as July 2021.

In the final lap of his five-year tenure, Adityanath has sought to draft a new population policy, seeking to restrict the family size in Uttar Pradesh to two children. In his bid to justify the need for a check on the rising population, Adityanath said, "Increasing population is the root of major problems, including inequality, prevailing in society. Population control is the primary condition for the establishment of an advanced society."

Sure enough, the proposed new law to restrict population barely seven months before the next state Assembly election in February-March 2022 is bound to arouse suspicion that the idea behind it was nothing other than the ruling party's tried and tested poll winning formula of religious polarisation.

After all, there can be no denying that the entire right-wing, led by the RSS and its off-shoots, have systematically tried to build a perception that Muslims alone were responsible for taking India's population to unmanageable levels. On his part, the chief minister has repeatedly emphasised that the policy does not intend to discriminate against anyone based on religion.

Also Read | Does India need population control? UP draft policy begs the question

"We don't want to give a message in UP that we are against any particular religion or anyone's human rights. We just want to see to it that the government resources and facilities are available to those who are helping in and contributing to population control," emphasised UP Law Commission Chairman Justice AN Mittal. A retired High Court judge, Mittal was responsible for bringing laws like 'love jihad' and some recent enactments in the name of cow protection. Needless to say how these laws have been used systematically by Adityanath to push his obvious agenda of religious polarisation.

Besides RSS leaders, Union minister Giriraj Singh has repeatedly blamed Muslims for India's population explosion. Therefore, it may not be baseless to assume that the new population policy, seen as a precursor to the proposed population control enactment, has a larger political objective.

The draft came close on the heels of the state law commission's recommendation for a new law to restrict population growth. According to the new policy, couples who do not have more than two children will benefit from the various government schemes. The draft has suggested several disincentives for those who do not conform to the new population policy. Anyone with more than two children after the law comes into force would be debarred from benefits such as government-sponsored welfare schemes, and ration card units would be limited to four. A person with more than two children would get barred from contesting elections to the local authority or anybody of the local self-government, says the draft.

Those contravening the law would also become ineligible to apply for jobs under the state government and be denied promotions in government services. Neither will they receive any subsidies. These provisions would come into force one year after the date of publication of the new enactment in the gazette.

But the question is, are Muslims actually responsible for India's population explosion? According to the Union government's data, Muslims contributed 14.6 per cent in the period 1901-2011, 16.1 per cent (1951-2011) and 16.7 per cent (1971-2011) to India's population growth. The contribution of Hindus in the corresponding periods was 79.4 per cent, 78 per cent and 77.4 per cent. The rest comprised 6 per cent, 5.9 per cent and 5.9 per cent. In 1901, Hindus outnumbered Muslims in India by 164 million, 268 million in 1951, 392 million in 1971, and 794 million in 2011. Thus, despite a lower growth rate but a much higher population, the numerical advantage of Hindus has increased in the last hundred years.

At the same time, the population growth rate of Muslims has been declining since 1971 – from 30.9 per cent during 1961-71 to 24.6 per cent during 2001-11, says the National Family Health Survey (NFHS).

A more recent study by Delhi-based think tank CSDS discovered that even the fall in the rate of the Muslim population between 2001 and 2011 was higher than that in the Hindu population. As against a 3.5 per cent decline in the Hindu population, the drop in the Muslim population was 4.9 per cent during the same period. And this was even though Muslim women were found to have a higher fertility rate than Hindu women. With a fertility rate of 2.13, Hindu women were lower than Muslim women with a fertility rate of 2.61. So, against 100 Hindu women giving birth to 213 children, 100 Muslim women were giving birth to 261 children.

Yet, even at that rate, it would take 1340 years for the Muslim population to become 40 per cent of the Hindu population in India. The study says that India's Muslim population would touch the figure of 39 crore (double of today's Muslim population) in the year 2100 when the country's Hindu population is estimated to be around 157 crore.

The right-wing propaganda that Muslims would become 84 per cent of the Indian population is, therefore, a myth intended only to misguide people so that forging a communal divide comes in handy.

While the Yogi government was consistently arguing that population control would help in striking a balance between the nation's needs and resources, the fact remains that corrupt officials and politicians devoured a chunk of the country's resources. An effective and meaningful curb on such pilferage could conserve precious resources.

(The writer is a Lucknow-based senior journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.