War shows US is hurt, Russia is adamant, Ukraine is resilient

United States’ President Joe Biden’s surprise, but carefully-choreographed, visit to Kiev, in Ukraine, on February 20, days ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, indicates that there is little chance of the war ending anytime soon.

Biden’s visit was aimed at three major audiences. The first message is to the US domestic scene, where many war-weary Republicans are calling for an end to the US ‘blank cheque’ support to Ukraine. The US has already sent over $50 billion in assistance to Ukraine. With the Republicans now having a majority in the House of Representatives, Biden cannot afford to ignore them.

It is not just US politicians. A new poll shows that support among the US public for providing Ukraine weaponry and direct economic assistance has decreased with only 48 percent now saying they favour the US providing weapons to Ukraine as opposed to 60 percent who favoured sending arms to Ukraine in May. War fatigue is clearly on the upswing in the US.

The second message is to Russia that there is no weakening in the US’ resolve to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, and that the West is united in its opposition to Russia. However, despite Biden’s continued support for Ukraine, it is unlikely that he will send fighter jets as requested by Ukraine, as that would escalate the war. Nor will he risk American lives for Ukraine.

The third message is to US’ allies in the West, where there are major divisions regarding the future trajectory of the war, and how to continue to support Ukraine. Europe is divided between the countries in the Bucharest 9 (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) and the United Kingdom pushing for providing Ukraine with more weapons and economic aid, as compared to ‘Old Europe’ Germany and France, who are more reluctant to do so.

Cloud Of Fear

One year into the war is a good time to take stock of what it has meant for global geopolitics. By now it is clear that the US overcalculated its power. A number of countries, including several allies and strategic partners, have defied the US’ diktats and sanctions on Russia. For instance, India has taken a bold, and neutral position on the war, standing up to Western pressure in its own national interests. Similarly, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Israel (despite all being US allies) have stood up to the US.

The war has certainly cemented Western and NATO unity under a cloud of fear. It has increased NATO’s forward presence in Eastern Europe, and encouraged Sweden and Finland to join it. In fact, we might now witness another arms race with countries such as Germany increasing their defence budgets.

Reports are now suggesting that the Russian economy has shrunk less than expected, and many countries are refusing to abide by US sanctions. Moreover, US’ sanctions, particularly the withdrawal of the SWIFT system and VISA from Russia, has had the unintended effect of countries recognising the dangers of being overly dependent on US financial services and developing their own alternatives.

Future Tense

Russia has not gotten the gains it expected, or at the rate it wanted. Its famed military prowess is under question. However, the Russia-China partnership has deepened and broadened, with some reports suggesting that Beijing might now be ready to assist Moscow militarily.

The war has had worldwide repercussions because of the effect on commodity prices, and the global economy, already reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, has shrunk in the last year.

Looking ahead, the use of drones by Ukraine and Russia has implications for the future of warfare. Also, the war has accelerated the shift towards renewable energy in Europe as countries shake off their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.

In essence, what the war has done is to show the weakness of both the US and Russia. It has brought out into the open the rebalancing underway world over. The war reflects the ongoing global turmoil where new partnerships are being negotiated, old partnerships are breaking up, great power politics is back, self-help has returned, new forms of diplomacy and warfare are being worked out, and new contestations are appearing in more regions and areas.

We seem to be witnessing the birth pangs of a new world order; the Russian invasion of Ukraine has only precipitated this process.

(Uma Purushothaman is Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Central University of Kerala)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.