Way ahead for oppositional politics after 2024 Elections

The 2024 general elections to form a new government has been the first of its kind in many ways. It was a contest of ideas, strategies, and visions of national development.

Politically, it was also a question of survival for many regional political parties as two chief ministers continue to be in prison, many former CMs and ministers have been making trips to prisons, and the Enforcement Directorate and other central agencies have been regularly visiting Opposition leaders. N Chandrababu Naidu, the leader of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) which swept through the assembly and Lok Sabha polls in Andhra Pradesh, was arrested in September. Reports showed that central agencies have been used to pressurise opposition parties.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was also seeking popular approval for its actions and ideas. The elections were also a test of survival for the regional formations in states like Maharashtra where they were split.

A national alliance would have fared better

The Opposition’s Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) did not work as a truly national alliance because alliance partners had their regional interests to safeguard or perhaps calculations of a possible revival. Nationally, the BJP won 240 seats and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc won 234 seats. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s seats would have gone up if the understanding over seat sharing was driven by a larger ideological necessity.

There is no doubt that an ideological plank led the bloc to such large numbers and it limited the BJP’s numbers; however, the Opposition could have done better if there was an understanding in West Bengal, Kerala, or even Bihar.

In West Bengal, it could have added six more seats by avoiding a triangular contest between the Congress/Left, the Trinamool Congress, and the BJP in Tamluk, Malda Uttar, Balurghat, Raiganj, Purulia, and Bishnupur. In Kerala, the BJP would not have won the Thrissur seat if the Congress and the CPI(M) had a pre-poll understanding. In Bihar, the Purnia seat was won by Pappu Yadav, who joined the Congress, but contested as an independent. Yadav won from Purnia. By this calculation, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc could have won more seats than the BJP.

I.N.D.I.A. should have done better in Bihar

In Bihar, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra did not produce the kind of enthusiasm it did in other places. Election rallies by Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Akhilesh Yadav and Congress’ Gandhi in UP drew larger numbers than the Congress leader's rallies in Bihar. The impulse to galvanisation of popular support provided by SP in UP was not provided by RJD in Bihar.

The election pitch that worked in UP and Maharashtra did not work in Bihar. It appeared as a campaign by Tejashwi Yadav and Mukesh Sahni, the leader of Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Along with this, the RJD’s insistence on the Purnia seat (which forced Pappu Yadav to contest as an independent) demonstrated the regional party’s insecurity. A similar insecurity was seen in 2019, when the RJD refused to ally with the CPI when the latter fielded Kanhaiya Kumar as its candidate from Begusarai.

The agenda of social justice projected by Rahul Gandhi could have drawn the support of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) from the JD(U) towards the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. In Uttar Pradesh, the SP remains the sole representative of the OBCs. Bihar has two OBC leaders, and Nitish Kumar has more support among the EBCs and the Dalits than Tejashwi Yadav. A more mature campaigning strategy, as well as seat allocation, could have yielded better results for I.N.D.I.A. in Bihar.

Organisational strength versus campaign-based electoral fight

UP has thrown up some remarkable electoral results. Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan won with over 150,000 votes from Nagina. His party contested only one seat, and this victory not only defeated the BJP, but also the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party. His victory is ideological, demonstrates an organisational work which is rarely found, and provides some lessons for many young contestants. It negates the idea that a large national party can be defeated only by competing on their plank of money power and some supra-organisational work effected by media blitzkrieg. How far this victory will go is a separate question, but he has demonstrated that there can be victories outside the prevalent methods of electoral politics.

Finally, it needs to be acknowledged that the BJP has an ideological reach among the masses as well as a strong organisational network. Unless the Opposition’s politics bases itself on a long-term ideological alliance, its existence might be short-lived. Masses have voted for better employment opportunities, to end caste-based discrimination, for affirmative action, for redistributive justice, for a life without hatred, and for better facilities. Whether these demands will be met or not remains to be seen.

(Ravi Kumar is Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, South Asian University. X: @74kravi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They don not necessarily reflect the views of DH.