In both Russia and the United States, the ‘reset’ in US-Russian relations is now being assessed. Some, often for reasons of domestic politics, are trying to belittle any achievements. Others are wondering whether a new stage in the relationship has truly begun, or whether this is just another pendulum swing in a positive direction, to be followed inevitably by a swing backward.
In the early 1990s, Russian expectations for cooperation with the US were so great, the mood was euphoric. Some of that euphoria was based on illusions and on an idealised view of America — a sense that was particularly widespread among the intelligentsia. Yet, those expectations also reflected a sound belief that our two nations could indeed achieve a great deal together, both in their own interests and for global benefit.
Euphoria soon gave way to disillusionment. Later in that decade, when the Russian economy was undermined by inept reforms and while millions of Russians were plunged into poverty, many Americans applauded Russia’s leaders. Many Russians could not help wondering if a weak, cornered Russia was what the US wanted.
Claimed of victory
Also in the 1990s, Nato was expanded while the US proclaimed its victory in the Cold War and its intention to maintain military superiority.
The period when the US could regard itself as the sole remaining superpower and even a ‘hyperpower,’ capable of creating a new kind of empire, turned out to be relatively short. The global financial crisis spurred the process of global realignment in favour of new centres of power and influence. America has had to adjust to this shift, and it has not been easy.
Neither Russia nor the US can afford another confrontation. Though quite different, both nations are going through a transition. They are trying to build new, often unpredictable relationships with emerging powers. The European Union, too, faces this challenge.
The intercontinental area from Vancouver to Vladivostok confronts many similar problems, and many shared interests are emerging. Powerful forces of mutual attraction must emerge as well. The US-Russia ‘reset’ and the declared EU-Russia ‘partnership for modernisation’ should mark the beginning of the road toward a new intercontinental community. Only by working together can the US, Europe and Russia secure a position of leadership and influence in a rapidly changing global world.
Am I calling for an association of ‘the North’ as a counterweight to ‘the South,’ the Islamic world or perhaps China? Far from it.
Such a plan would be a recipe for a real rather than a hypothetical conflict of civilisations. In relations with other countries, we must always seek cooperation, joint problem-solving and ways to overcome difficulties.
The Islamic world is grappling with the challenge of adapting to the modern era while trying to protect its cultural identity and unique civilisation. As part of this painful process, extremist tendencies within political Islam are opposed by moderate tendencies and regimes that are not averse to modernisation and are ready for dialogue. A community of shared civilisation, with common cultural roots and diverse experience interacting with the Islamic world, must be a party to such a dialogue.
Such a community could play an equally important role in a dialogue with China.
China’s role
China’s political importance will undoubtedly increase with its population and economic power. This will be a serious test, for the international community as well as China. There are forks in the road, when difficult decisions must be made. China, sooner or later, will face a political choice — the problem of democracy. Engagement and cooperation with a great nation that has become not just the ‘factory to the world’ but also a giant economic and political ‘laboratory’ will be another key task for the intercontinental community I am advocating.
The proposal by Russia’s president, Dmitri Medvedev, to conclude a pan-European security treaty applies to the same area, extending from North America to Europe and all of Russia.
Big goals may seem overly ambitious or abstract, particularly at a time when Russia and the US cannot agree on the issue of imported poultry despite their public commitment to a new relationship, and the EU still denies Russian citizens visa-free travel.
Yet I am convinced that my proposal is not a pipe dream. The scale of global change is so vast, and the potential contribution of nations across the intercontinental space of Russia, Europe and North America is so enormous, that their close association should be seen as imperative. We must move from ‘reset’ and partnership toward a reconfiguration of global political relations.