West Bengal | Are political parties sowing communal tension to reap electoral benefits?

Despite their public fulminations and accusations, it seems that it benefits both the BJP and the TMC to keep the communal pot simmering

Both the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal have blamed each other for the violence around Ram Navami celebrations. Other political parties from the Opposition have also joined in the blame game.

Sanjiv Raut of Shiv Sena (UBT), for example, has claimed that scenarios unfolding in West Bengal and some other states, including Maharashtra, around militant Ram Navami processions and ‘Shobha yatras’, are part of the BJP’s “policy … to start riots in the country before the 2024 elections and then face the elections or postpone the elections.” Rajya Sabha MP Kapil Sibal has described the communal incidents as a “trailer” for the 2024 elections.

A deliberate attempt at the religious polarisation of the electorate would be in keeping with the BJP’s time-tested strategy. The mother of the youngster, who was seen waving a revolver in a Ram Navami procession in West Bengal, arrested from Munger in Bihar, has told the media that her son was a protester-for-hire who joined all political processions and protests provided he was paid to do so, though she wondered who had handed him a revolver. Someone had clearly bussed in professional protestors from adjoining states for a show of strength in West Bengal.

A communal polarisation strategy is helped by two factors: the proportion of the minority population in a particular constituency should be sufficiently high to inculcate a perception of ‘threat’ to the majority community; and ‘foot-soldiers’ must be available from both sides to operationalise the confrontation. Clearly, both facilitating conditions were present in West Bengal where Ram Navami clashes show both Hindus and Muslims indulging in arson and stone-pelting.

The areas which witnessed violence were either the TMC strongholds (Rishra in Serampur Lok Sabha constituency) or BJP strongholds (Hoogly Lok Sabha constituency), or areas where the BJP was the first runner-up in the 2019 general, elections such as Howrah and Dalkhola in Raiganj constituencies.

This pattern is starker in Bihar. The violence there was mainly in Nalanda and Sasaram. The Nalanda Lok Sabha constituency is a Janata Dal (United) stronghold and out of the seven Assembly segments only Bihar Sharif was won by the BJP in its previous alliance with the JD(U).

Most of the violence was concentrated in Bihar Sharif where the Azizia Madrassa Library was burnt down. The BJP held the Sasaram Lok Sabha seat in 2019 (then in alliance with the JD(U)) but the party could not win even one of the five Assembly segments there in 2020. The BJP can make a dent in both these seats only if the voters are polarised.

Coincidentally, in Maharashtra, the communal violence took place in Malvani in Malad constituency, which was won by the Congress in 2019 by a little over 10,000 votes with the BJP as the first runner-up. Perhaps it is by joining such dots that there is speculation in political circles whether the current riots are to test the efficacy of communalisation before the coming general elections.

In West Bengal, ‘test results’ may come within the next couple of months when panchayat elections are held. Their results would clarify the territorial control exercised by the various political parties, and would be a potential springboard for the general election next year. In 2018, the TMC won 38,118 gram panchayats, 8,062 panchayat samitis, and 793 zila parishads. The BJP came a distant second with 5,779 gram panchayats, 769 panchayat samitis, and 22 zila parishads. It is the BJP that is expected to benefit by the communal polarisation in the semi-rural and rural areas — where the recent clashes occurred.

The TMC is forewarned then, about using violence in the run up to the panchayat polls. In the 2018 panchayat polls, intimidation by the TMC cadre resulted in a win but led to widespread disenchantment later. Non-TMC parties were prevented from even filing nomination papers and ~34 per cent seats remained uncontested. It is believed that the BJP’s win of 18 Lok Sabha seats just a year later in 2019 was the result of voter disenchantment. The TMC’s Lok Sabha tally came down from 34 to 22.

However, the TMC could also benefit from the ongoing communal polarisation. It seems to be losing support among the Muslims who constitute 27.01 per cent of the state’s population. Some weather-vane events indicate that they may be having a rethink about the TMC. The results of the Sagardighi by-poll on March 2 gave the Congress its maiden assembly seat, defeating the TMC candidate by 90,000 votes. Sagardighi is in Murshidabad which has 68 percent minority population, which in the past has overwhelmingly placed its faith in the TMC.

Almost exactly a year ago, four Muslim homes were torched, and 12 individuals burnt to death in Bogtui in Birbhum district. Although Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee announced relief packages, the party remained largely silent. The Calcutta High Court, blaming the police for shoddy investigations, handed over the case to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in April 2022.

The public response to Opposition rallies marking the first anniversary of the Bogtui killings underline the growing disillusionment of the minorities with the TMC. There have also been other incidents of violence against the minority community as well, underplayed by the TMC, but which have not gone unnoticed by the Muslim voters.

The result of the Sagardighi bypoll was a challenge to both the TMC and the BJP because it showed that the bipolar politics that suits both could be challenged. It is in Banerjee’s interest to continue to squeeze the Left and the Congress out of the electoral picture and keep the contest bipolar by consolidating her minority vote. If, for example, the minority vote gets divided between the TMC and the Left-Congress alliance while the Hindu vote solidifies behind the BJP, it is game over for Banerjee. With the undivided minority vote backing her, she begins with a 27 per cent base vote advantage over the BJP. Therefore, despite their public fulminations and accusations, it seems that it benefits both the BJP and TMC to keep the communal pot simmering.

(Bharat Bhushan is a senior journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.