<p>The 2024 US presidential election has delivered a historic outcome: Donald Trump has become only the second president in American history, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century, to serve two non-consecutive terms. Marked by record polarisation, this election saw Trump defeat Kamala Harris, who would have been the first female president of the United States and is of African American and Indian descent. Trump’s victory is expected to carry important economic and geopolitical implications. For India, it presents unique opportunities and challenges, given Trump’s stance on trade, defence, and foreign relations, especially in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.</p>.<p><strong>Economic and Trade Policies</strong></p>.<p>One major area where Trump’s presidency may affect India is economic and trade policy. Trump has championed “America First” policies that emphasise domestic production, reduce reliance on imports, and raise tariffs on foreign goods. His intention to raise tariffs — particularly on imports from China — could indirectly benefit India. As US companies look to avoid higher costs by relocating operations, India could emerge as a viable alternative for those seeking to diversify their supply chains.</p>.Is falling tax growth a warning signal?.<p>However, challenges remain. Trump’s policies could press India to lower its own trade barriers, especially in sectors like information technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles -- key Indian exports to the US. For instance, Indian generic drug exports could face greater scrutiny or tariff changes, potentially impacting the pharmaceutical sector. Additionally, if Trump’s trade policies slow US discretionary spending, it could negatively affect India’s IT and services sectors, which rely heavily on American clients. Although India may benefit from reduced competition with China, higher US import tariffs and the potential push for self-reliance could pose hurdles for Indian exports.</p>.<p><strong>Energy and Climate Policy</strong></p>.<p>Trump’s victory signals a return to policies favouring traditional energy industries, including deregulation for oil, gas, and coal. This stance contrasts with the Biden administration’s emphasis on renewables and climate initiatives, which included partnerships benefiting India’s renewable energy sector. If Trump prioritises fossil fuels, it could challenge India’s renewable energy goals, which have recently aligned with US-supported initiatives. However, Indian importers of oil and gas may benefit from more stable prices if the US focuses on boosting domestic energy supplies.</p>.<p><strong>Defence and Security</strong> </p>.<p>Trump’s foreign policy is expected to enhance US-India defence cooperation, especially in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. His previous administration strengthened the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an alliance among the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Under Trump’s renewed leadership, India can expect continued support for initiatives within the Quad framework, joint military exercises, and enhanced arms sales aligned with India’s security interests.</p>.<p>Trump’s “Peace through Strength” approach may lead to a more assertive US stance in the region, resonating with India’s defence needs as it contends amid tensions with Pakistan and China. Trump has openly advocated for stronger defence ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, signalling a continuity of defence cooperation, military exchanges, and technology transfers. Such collaboration could bolster India’s capacity to maintain regional stability, particularly amid ongoing territorial disputes with China.</p>.<p><strong>Immigration and Visa Policies</strong></p>.Is India’s falling tax growth a warning signal?.<p>A Trump presidency is likely to revive restrictive immigration policies, particularly on H-1B visas, which could pose challenges for Indian professionals. The H-1B visa programme, extensively used by Indian technology firms and skilled professionals, could face limitations that hinder the entry of Indian talent into the US. In his previous term, Trump’s visa restrictions affected thousands of Indian IT professionals and firms, increasing labour costs and prompting Indian companies to explore other markets or expand domestically. With Trump back in office, stricter immigration policies may again hinder Indian workers’ access to US job markets, affecting sectors dependent on skilled Indian workers, particularly technology. This may also prompt India to further incentivise domestic tech opportunities or push Indian firms to explore alternative global markets.</p>.<p><strong>Foreign Policy</strong></p>.<p>Trump’s return could shift US policy in South Asia, a region of critical importance to India. Trump has shown willingness to cooperate with Pakistan, especially on counter-terrorism, while demanding accountability—an approach that aligns with India’s interest in regional stability as it navigates tensions with Pakistan.</p>.<p>Furthermore, Trump’s strong stance against China, demonstrated through sanctions and tariffs, is likely to continue, benefiting India given its own concerns over China’s growing regional influence. India could see strengthened support from the US in countering Chinese actions, including defence technology and intelligence-sharing assistance.</p>.<p>In contrast to Biden, Trump may take a less confrontational approach toward Russia, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This shift could ease some of the pressure on India, allowing it to maintain its longstanding ties with Russia while balancing its US partnership. However, Trump’s support for allies like Israel and Taiwan, along with his condemnation of recent violence against Hindus in Bangladesh, signals an awareness of South Asian security concerns that could support India’s diplomatic position in the region.</p>.<p>Trump’s return to office presents both opportunities and challenges for US-India relations. His expansionary economic policies could create investment opportunities for India, especially as companies seek alternatives to China. Defence and strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific are likely to deepen, with both countries aligning on countering China’s influence. However, Trump’s restrictive immigration policies and trade protectionism could challenge sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals that depend on US markets and labour access.</p>.<p>India may also benefit from the tariffs Trump plans to impose on Chinese goods, as these could encourage businesses to relocate manufacturing from China to India. Yet a potential risk lies in Trump’s possibility of imposing similar tariffs on US firms employing large numbers of Indian workers, which could impact outsourcing and tech sectors.</p>.<p>In sum, Trump’s presidency offers a mixed picture for India. His strong anti-China stance and defence priorities align closely with India’s strategic interests, enhancing the US-India partnership. Conversely, his protectionist economic policies, immigration, and domestic focus may limit some economic cooperation.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Associate Fellow , Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)</em> </p>
<p>The 2024 US presidential election has delivered a historic outcome: Donald Trump has become only the second president in American history, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century, to serve two non-consecutive terms. Marked by record polarisation, this election saw Trump defeat Kamala Harris, who would have been the first female president of the United States and is of African American and Indian descent. Trump’s victory is expected to carry important economic and geopolitical implications. For India, it presents unique opportunities and challenges, given Trump’s stance on trade, defence, and foreign relations, especially in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.</p>.<p><strong>Economic and Trade Policies</strong></p>.<p>One major area where Trump’s presidency may affect India is economic and trade policy. Trump has championed “America First” policies that emphasise domestic production, reduce reliance on imports, and raise tariffs on foreign goods. His intention to raise tariffs — particularly on imports from China — could indirectly benefit India. As US companies look to avoid higher costs by relocating operations, India could emerge as a viable alternative for those seeking to diversify their supply chains.</p>.Is falling tax growth a warning signal?.<p>However, challenges remain. Trump’s policies could press India to lower its own trade barriers, especially in sectors like information technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles -- key Indian exports to the US. For instance, Indian generic drug exports could face greater scrutiny or tariff changes, potentially impacting the pharmaceutical sector. Additionally, if Trump’s trade policies slow US discretionary spending, it could negatively affect India’s IT and services sectors, which rely heavily on American clients. Although India may benefit from reduced competition with China, higher US import tariffs and the potential push for self-reliance could pose hurdles for Indian exports.</p>.<p><strong>Energy and Climate Policy</strong></p>.<p>Trump’s victory signals a return to policies favouring traditional energy industries, including deregulation for oil, gas, and coal. This stance contrasts with the Biden administration’s emphasis on renewables and climate initiatives, which included partnerships benefiting India’s renewable energy sector. If Trump prioritises fossil fuels, it could challenge India’s renewable energy goals, which have recently aligned with US-supported initiatives. However, Indian importers of oil and gas may benefit from more stable prices if the US focuses on boosting domestic energy supplies.</p>.<p><strong>Defence and Security</strong> </p>.<p>Trump’s foreign policy is expected to enhance US-India defence cooperation, especially in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. His previous administration strengthened the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an alliance among the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Under Trump’s renewed leadership, India can expect continued support for initiatives within the Quad framework, joint military exercises, and enhanced arms sales aligned with India’s security interests.</p>.<p>Trump’s “Peace through Strength” approach may lead to a more assertive US stance in the region, resonating with India’s defence needs as it contends amid tensions with Pakistan and China. Trump has openly advocated for stronger defence ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, signalling a continuity of defence cooperation, military exchanges, and technology transfers. Such collaboration could bolster India’s capacity to maintain regional stability, particularly amid ongoing territorial disputes with China.</p>.<p><strong>Immigration and Visa Policies</strong></p>.Is India’s falling tax growth a warning signal?.<p>A Trump presidency is likely to revive restrictive immigration policies, particularly on H-1B visas, which could pose challenges for Indian professionals. The H-1B visa programme, extensively used by Indian technology firms and skilled professionals, could face limitations that hinder the entry of Indian talent into the US. In his previous term, Trump’s visa restrictions affected thousands of Indian IT professionals and firms, increasing labour costs and prompting Indian companies to explore other markets or expand domestically. With Trump back in office, stricter immigration policies may again hinder Indian workers’ access to US job markets, affecting sectors dependent on skilled Indian workers, particularly technology. This may also prompt India to further incentivise domestic tech opportunities or push Indian firms to explore alternative global markets.</p>.<p><strong>Foreign Policy</strong></p>.<p>Trump’s return could shift US policy in South Asia, a region of critical importance to India. Trump has shown willingness to cooperate with Pakistan, especially on counter-terrorism, while demanding accountability—an approach that aligns with India’s interest in regional stability as it navigates tensions with Pakistan.</p>.<p>Furthermore, Trump’s strong stance against China, demonstrated through sanctions and tariffs, is likely to continue, benefiting India given its own concerns over China’s growing regional influence. India could see strengthened support from the US in countering Chinese actions, including defence technology and intelligence-sharing assistance.</p>.<p>In contrast to Biden, Trump may take a less confrontational approach toward Russia, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This shift could ease some of the pressure on India, allowing it to maintain its longstanding ties with Russia while balancing its US partnership. However, Trump’s support for allies like Israel and Taiwan, along with his condemnation of recent violence against Hindus in Bangladesh, signals an awareness of South Asian security concerns that could support India’s diplomatic position in the region.</p>.<p>Trump’s return to office presents both opportunities and challenges for US-India relations. His expansionary economic policies could create investment opportunities for India, especially as companies seek alternatives to China. Defence and strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific are likely to deepen, with both countries aligning on countering China’s influence. However, Trump’s restrictive immigration policies and trade protectionism could challenge sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals that depend on US markets and labour access.</p>.<p>India may also benefit from the tariffs Trump plans to impose on Chinese goods, as these could encourage businesses to relocate manufacturing from China to India. Yet a potential risk lies in Trump’s possibility of imposing similar tariffs on US firms employing large numbers of Indian workers, which could impact outsourcing and tech sectors.</p>.<p>In sum, Trump’s presidency offers a mixed picture for India. His strong anti-China stance and defence priorities align closely with India’s strategic interests, enhancing the US-India partnership. Conversely, his protectionist economic policies, immigration, and domestic focus may limit some economic cooperation.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is Associate Fellow , Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)</em> </p>
