Why change of guard in Seychelles matters

Moves of the new regime will be watched closely in the backdrop of competitive politics between India and China to build military facilities there

While global attention was fixed on the American presidential elections in the last week of October 2020, a tiny Indian Ocean island nation, Seychelles, saw significant political developments. For the first time in the history of Seychelles, an opposition candidate, Wavel Ramkalawan, of the Seychelles Democratic Alliance defeated the incumbent, Danny Faure, of the United Party.

Seychelles, located in the Western Indian Ocean and a former British colony, is known as an attractive tourist destination. It is also known as a tax haven. The island nation has one of the highest per capita incomes in Africa but inequality is also very high. Lately, Seychelles has shot to prominence due to the threat posed by the effects of climate change and the escalating geopolitical rivalries in the Indian Ocean.

With a population of just about 95,000, Seychelles possesses outsized geostrategic importance. It is located at the crossroads of Africa, the Middle East, and India. As the geopolitics in the Indian Ocean heats up, the importance of smaller yet geostrategically-located island nations like Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius, and Sri Lanka is growing. Amongst these island nations, Seychelles has been playing the geopolitical game quite smartly and has managed to keep competing powers on their toes.

Seychelles has traditionally been considered close to India. India has covertly helped the Seychellois regime in the early 1980s to thwart the attempts of destabilisation and regime change. Recently, at the peak of the pandemic, as part of Mission Sagar, India had dispatched much-needed food and medical assistance to several Indian Ocean island nations, including Seychelles.

China’s growing interest

As China expands its footprint in the Indian Ocean, the role and importance of Seychelles have gone up. Seychelles’ location is crucial in the Chinese military and economic strategy towards the Indian Ocean. With the opening up of the military base at Djibouti and consequently growing military presence, China is signalling its strategic willingness to be a major player in the regional security affairs in this critical maritime space.

In this decade, Seychelles has emerged as one of the major attractions for Chinese tourists. As Bertil Lintner writes, the Chinese regime is known to use tourism as a political weapon and has punished countries like the Philippines and Palau when their behaviour was not to the liking of China. However, for now, Seychelles has been receiving a large number of Chinese tourists. From just about 500 tourists in 2011, the number of Chinese tourists has gone up to more than 15,000 in 2016.

Furthermore, in the last few years, China has taken steps to deepen defence and security co-operation with Seychelles. China has trained the military units of Seychelles’ armed forces as well as gifted two light aircraft and two naval ships. China has dispatched senior figures of Chinese armed forces and the Central Military Commission to pay a visit to Seychelles. In the past, China had financed the building of Seychelles’ parliament as well.

Indian ties with Seychelles

However, as the Chinese interest in this tiny island nation began to grow, India has been taking steps to ensure that its maritime primacy in the region stays intact. India has done hydrographic surveys for Seychelles. Moreover, it has gifted two patrol boats (in 2005 and in 2014), two maritime surveillance aircraft (in 2013 and in 2018) and Fast Interceptor Boat (in 2016) for coastal security. India has also established six coastal radar stations in Seychelles. It is part of the network of coastal surveillance radar stations built by India in the Indian Ocean island nations.

However, India has faced significant challenges in building military facilities on the Assumption Island in Seychelles. In January 2018, India and Seychelles had signed an agreement, valid for 20 years, for building an airstrip and a naval jetty on the Assumption Island. It was an updated version of a previous agreement signed in 2015. However, amidst the strong protests from Opposition parties, it was clear that the Seychellois parliament would not ratify the agreement. In June 2018, while President Faure was on a visit to India, New Delhi tried to sweeten the deal by offering a $100 million credit line for boosting up the defence capabilities of the tiny nation.

It is significant to note that, Wavel Ramkawalan, who was then the leader of the Opposition, was quite vocal against the Indian military facilities. It will be interesting now to watch how his government considers this question of India-built military facilities. Perhaps, a change of government may present new opportunities to revive this agreement and take it to its logical conclusion. The role of Indian diplomacy will be crucial in this endeavour.

A base in Seychelles will certainly help India to acquire a permanent foothold in the Western Indian Ocean near some of the busiest shipping lanes of the world. Meanwhile, India is building military facilities in neighbouring Mauritius’ Agalega islands and is steadily increasing its naval presence in the Western Indian Ocean.

Just like India in 2018, China had made efforts to build a military base in Seychelles in 2011. However, so far, attempts by both countries have proven equally futile. Seychelles has been deftly playing the geopolitical game without compromising what it perceives as its national interests and sovereignty.

The example of Seychelles shows the complicated domestic political fallout of the foreign and defence policy decisions of the incumbent governments. It has happened before, in cases of the Maldives and in Sri Lanka. As of now, by reneging on the agreement, Seychelles has managed to avoid the deepening of the domestic fault lines. However, as the geopolitical rivalries heat up in and around Seychelles, it will be interesting to see how the newly-elected government of Wavel Ramkalawan navigates the turbulent waters of domestic politics and foreign policy.

(Sankalp Gurjar is a Research Fellow with the Indian Council of World Affairs. Views are personal.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.