Why doubts persist about J&K elections this year
Although the Supreme Court had ordered the Centre to hold Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, the prospects of that happening seem bleak.
There is speculation that only the panchayat and municipal polls might be held by September, while the Assembly elections may be deferred to 2025. The announcement for local body polls is expected after the Amarnath Yatra concludes on August 19.
Signals from the government on Assembly polls are confusing. The prime minister did mention during his June 21 visit to Kashmir that preparations for elections in the Union Territory were on.
Subsequently, a meeting of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was held chaired by Home Minister Amit Shah, attended by party president J P Nadda and party leaders from J&K. They were apparently instructed to be ‘ready’ for elections. In June, the Election Commission of India also called for applications for allotment of ‘common symbol’ from registered and unregistered parties in J&K. On July 5, the BJP in-charge for overseeing J&K elections, Union Minister G Kishan Reddy chaired a party meeting to oversee election preparedness.
Despite this, the Kashmir media, always sensitive to signals from New Delhi, has pointed out that J&K was not mentioned at all in the meetings held in the capital earlier this month regarding poll arrangements in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand. Nor was it mentioned in the prime minister’s reply to the Motion of Thanks to the President’s address to Parliament.
Doubts have probably been further aggravated by the resurgence of terrorist attacks in the region.
Up to now, over 10 terrorist attacks and encounters have taken place at Shopian (January 5, no casualty), Poonch (January 12, no casualty), Rajouri (January 18, one security personnel killed, two injured), Baramulla (April 5, one terrorist killed), Pulwama (April 11, one terrorist killed), Poonch (May 4, one Air Force personnel killed, four injured), Kulgam (May 7, two terrorists killed), Kulgam (May 8, no casualty), Pulwama (June 3, two terrorists killed), Reasi (June 9, nine pilgrims killed, over 30 injured), Bhaderwah (June 11, six soldiers injured), Doda (June 12, one policeman killed), Baramulla (June 19, two security personnel and two terrorists killed), Kulgam (July 6, two soldiers and one terrorist killed), and Kathua (July 8, five soldiers killed, four injured).
Noticeably, the terrorist attacks have spread to Jammu and they are increasingly targeted at security personnel. They are also curiously timed to take away public attention from Prime Minister Narendra Modi — the Reasi attack took place on the day he was being sworn in for his third term and the Kathua attack on the day the government was showcasing Modi’s Moscow visit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Strategic affairs experts believe that these terrorist attacks are inspired and engineered by Pakistan, and have local support.
However, evidence that terrorists are continuing to get local support, both in the Kashmir Valley and in Hindu-dominated Jammu undermines the government’s rhetoric that the erstwhile state of J&K has become free of terrorism after the removal of its special status. For example, 24 local residents have been detained by the Army for questioning in the Kathua attack, in which five soldiers were killed. Whether local support is voluntary or involuntary is difficult to determine and opinions vary depending on the observer’s ideological orientation.
Holding a largely peaceful Assembly election and reinstating statehood would have allowed the Modi government to showcase the success of its Kashmir policy of integrating J&K into the Indian national mainstream. But terrorist attacks will make this difficult.
No election, no statehood, and no peace are goals that suit Pakistan, and keep alive its stakes in J&K as a ‘disputed’ territory. It will be in no hurry to turn the tap off on terrorist strikes in J&K and keep Indian security forces and political dispensation pinned in the region. Although this policy will not win over the Kashmiris, for Islamabad keeping the enemy destabilised and immobilised is a worthwhile goal in itself.
The poor showing of the BJP and its ‘proxy’ parties in J&K in the Lok Sabha polls might also be a factor for the government delaying polls. The Peoples’ Conference led by Sajad Lone, the Apni Party of Altaf Bukhari and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party of Ghulam Nabi Azad, were projected by the BJP as alternatives to ‘dynastic politics’ in J&K, but came a cropper in the elections.
In the 72 constituencies that make up the four Lok Sabha constituencies of Baramulla, Srinagar, Anantnag-Rajouri, and Udhampur only in the assembly segment of Handwara in Baramulla did one of these parties — Lone’s Peoples’ Conference — managed to secure a majority. Lone barely managed to save his deposit in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency. The Apni Party’s two candidates in Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri forfeited their deposits, while Azad’s three candidates in Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar, and Udhampur also could not save their deposits.
In short, without winnable political allies in the Valley and fearing its own performance in the minority-dominated areas of Jammu, the BJP is unlikely to make any gains. The BJP would have gained nothing in J&K if the Assembly elections delivered victory to ‘dynastic politics’. It would also have to deal with an adversarial political dispensation ensconced at Srinagar.
There is speculation about the establishment facilitating the candidature and election of an independent from Baramulla, Sheikh Abdul Rashid aka Engineer Rashid, while in prison. Even if that were the case — there is no publicly available evidence to support such a claim — he may not be amenable to manipulation by the BJP. He is outside ‘dynastic politics’ no doubt, but he is also a known maverick whose election at best represents resistance to New Delhi and regionally established parties.
The BJP, therefore, will need time to either create another ‘King’s Party’ or rejuvenate its existing ‘proxies’ and ensure peaceful conditions in J&K against provocations engineered by Pakistan.
(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.