Why the Rambo script won’t work in India

Embarrassing though it may be, the report in The Washington Post on the involvement of Indian officials in a failed assassination plot against a United States citizen on US soil is not going to impact the ongoing elections in India.

The readership of the investigative report will most likely be limited to circles whose vote does not matter to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It will, however, stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi from boasting about how in ‘new India’, enemies of the nation are killed on their home turf.

“Ghar mein ghus kar marna” (to kill by entering someone’s home) was the phrase used for political messaging to the electorate. Although Modi ended the large boast by narrowing it down to the surgical operation in Uri, the message could be interpreted by his supporters to give credit to him for the recent assassinations that India officially disowns — in Pakistan and Canada, and the failed attempt against Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US.

While India has flatly denied the Canadian allegations, it has made the incredulous excuse that the conspiracy was the work of  ‘rogue operatives’. However, the US has provided enough evidence of the involvement of Indian agents to put the Modi government on the defensive. Naming the agent involved and how he has gone unpunished, The Washington Post report disproves the rogue agent theory. The report suggests that the named agent was operating under the instructions of his superior officers.

One only has to read the publicly available indictment (charge-sheet) against Nikhil Gupta, a facilitator in the alleged conspiracy, to conclude that this is not the end of the Pannun saga. There could be further bleeding — for example, it notes that “on or about June 12, 2023, the UC (US undercover agent) received a video call from Gupta, who appeared to be in a conference room. During the call, Gupta turned the camera toward approximately three other men in the room who were dressed in business attire, sitting around a conference table with Gupta. As Gupta turned the camera back toward himself, he told the UC ‘we are all counting on you’.”

One can safely assume that the ‘three other men’ in ‘business attire’ in the room, plotting the assassination with Gupta, have by now been identified. Their identity is always in danger of being revealed.

There is more. The Washington Post report also reveals that after being lured to Prague, as Gupta exited Vaclav Havel Airport, he “was intercepted by Czech police, who ushered him into a vehicle in which two US federal agents were waiting, according to court filings submitted by Gupta’s family in India. He was questioned for hours while the car meandered around the city. His laptop was seized and his phone held to his face to unlock it.”

In other words, before Gupta was put in jail facing extradition, the US agents squeezed him dry of the information needed. The US agents already have the contents of his laptop, his list of contacts, and the messages and texts he exchanged. They have more names of those involved. This too can come out in the future.

Modi, therefore, is under pressure with his ambition to be accepted as a statesman on a par with the other global leaders seriously damaged. Canada has already put India in a corner by accusing it of ordering the assassination of its citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Now Australia, a crucial member of the Quad along with India, has also pushed back by revealing how a “nest of spies” from India was operating in Australia, trying to steal trade and defence secrets, and monitoring the Indian diaspora community.

These serial revelations show India as an untrustworthy ally. While spying may be a normal State activity, recklessly expanding its span of operations has resulted in India’s friends drawing a red line, which they believe the Modi regime has crossed.

Modi’s ambitions for India, and perhaps for himself, have already been scaled down from ‘Vishwaguru’ (World Leader) to ‘Vishwa Bandhu’ (Friend of the World) in his party’s election manifesto. It is being made clear to him and subsequent Indian governments that follow, that no one expects a friend to enter their homes and commit a criminal offence and still be accepted as a buddy.

This may not affect trade and other commercial activities with some of these countries, but it will certainly impact intelligence cooperation with them. Except for Israel, the US does not offer intelligence cooperation with nations it considers unreliable. If India is seen in that category, then India-US intelligence cooperation, which has yielded dividends in the past — in the areas of counterterrorism, cyber-security, trans-border illegal immigration, aviation security, maritime security, and even threats to sovereignty — is likely to be eroded leading to a loss of critical and crucial information. One only has to recall reports of how unprecedented US intelligence sharing — including real-time intelligence and satellite imageries not shared with others in the past — helped India counter Chinese incursions along the Line of Actual Control in 2022.

Keeping the Pannun episode alive also seems aimed at the domestic constituency in the US — suggesting that Washington’s understanding of Modi and his regime should not be underestimated. It is a crucial signal that US President Joe Biden needs to deliver to the American Muslim and liberal community.

Those supporters of the government who hoped India would act against its terrorists in the Rambo-style operations adopted by the US against Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Jawahiri forget that there is a legislative process in the US for such targeting. A presidential approval is sought, and he signs off on an order enabling the subordinate agencies to act on it.

There is no such legislative process available in India for assassinating the enemies of the State abroad. This is clear from the fact that despite election rhetoric, no official responsibility has been taken, blaming the transgression of normal rules on rogue agents.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.