Will inflation, job losses, farm protests shake Muzaffarnagar's BJP tilt?

Law and order is an important issue in Muzaffarnagar, which goes to polls on February 10

The sprawling village of Bhainsi sits amidst dusty fields of sugarcane, brightened by the occasional sparkle of mustard that gleams gold in the morning sun. Situated 21 km from the district headquarters of Muzaffarnagar, it is a prosperous settlement, with all the houses here pucca structures. The newer homes have drawing rooms with sofas still encased in plastic, covered with lace-edged antimacassars. Potted plants stand in tiny driveways. Some families here can boast of educated progeny living abroad, and virtually every home can boast of at least a couple of smartphones and a two-wheeler, with some even owning cars.

Till irrigation came here in the late 1960s, thanks to Charan Singh, say locals, only half the land was under sugarcane cultivation; on the other half, there was wheat, rice, vegetables and mustard. Now, with virtually the entire land under sugarcane cultivation — with some patches of mustard — the village has grown rich beyond its dreams.

But despite the relative affluence of Bhainsi's residents, of whom close to half are Jats, the female to male ratio is lower than the state average; ironically, the literacy rate here – 75.59 per cent - is higher than the state average of 67.68 per cent. The contradiction would suggest a patriarchal system where male children are prized even as creeping modernity has created aspirations that can be fulfilled only through education.

Legend has it that Bhainsi was named after Baba Bhay Singh, a Jat Robin Hood, who was active in the mid-18th century. He was from Dighal, a village in modern-day Haryana's Jhajjar district. The village was named Bhay Singh ki Dhani but, over the years, got corrupted to the cruder Bhainsi, which, along with Dighal, is dominated by the Jats of the Ahlawat khap.

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On the day I visited Bhainsi, a leading member of the Ahlawat clan – and possibly, the village's most famous resident - Raju Ahlawat Bhainsi is confabulating with his followers. Dressed in a white tracksuit and trainers, he is sitting outdoors in front of a well-maintained, double-storeyed white stucco house. The others sit around him in a semicircle on brown plastic chairs, the ubiquitous hookah in the middle.

Till recently, Raju Ahlawat was Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) spokesperson Rakesh Tikait's right-hand man. He wielded great influence among the farmers – largely Jats – not just of Muzaffarnagar district, of which he was BKU secretary for seven years, but of Saharanpur division that includes the Jat-dominated districts of Muzaffarnagar, Shamli and Saharanpur. Indeed, last year, as a leading light of the more than year-long farmers' agitation, he played a key role in the success of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) 's mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar on September 5, and the subsequent Bharat Bandh called by it on September 27.

And then, less than a fortnight later, on October 10, he was on a stage in Lucknow, being welcomed into the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

With just a few days to go for polling in Khatauli, Ahlawat tells DH why he shifted base so abruptly. "The BKU was not on the right path," he says, "The farm laws would not have impacted Uttar Pradesh adversely – it would only impact Punjab and Haryana." The key demand in UP, he explains, was for the establishment of a statutory guarantee for a minimum support price (MSP) for a range of crops, "but it was not getting highlighted". Since then, he says he has extracted a promise from Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar to set up a committee to examine the matter after the elections.

Frustrated with his failure to explain why the agricultural laws would not harm UP's farmers, Ahlawat says he began to examine his options: he ruled out the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) because "though it claims to be a party representing farmers' interests", it "only represents the Jats". He also dismissed the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is influential in western UP because "it only speaks for the Jatavs," a prominent Scheduled Caste community. "That left me with one option – the BJP, a party that represents everyone."

Brass tacks

Having disposed of the farmers' agitation, Ahlawat gets down to brass tacks: "The riots are the big issue in this election; in fact, as long as the Samajwadi Party (SP) is in the contest, it will be an issue (in 2013, when the SP was in power, there were communal riots in Muzaffarnagar district). For the Jats and other Hindu castes, suraksha (security) and the kanoon vyavastha (law and order system) is the top issue in this election – and the danga (riots) the undercurrent." His fellow Jats all nod in agreement, with some even expanding on these arguments.

"Members of one sampradaya (community) are now filling the jails, things are under control, and there is Ramrajya under Yogi Adityanath," he adds. Is he talking about the Muslims, I ask, and he nods. Under SP rule, he says, the thanas and the tehsils (the police and the administration) were all controlled by the Yadavs, and it was open season for Muslim and Yadav criminals.

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Ironic, given that the September 5, 2021 mahapanchayat - for which Ahlawat was a key organiser - was held in Muzaffarnagar to promote Hindu-Muslim unity. A farmer leader at the time had said: "There was consensus among the farmers' organisations that Muzaffarnagar should hold such a meeting for the basic reason that it is the place which BJP used to foment communal tension." Indeed, the more than year-long farmers' agitation had seen many instances of the renewal of Jat-Muslim camaraderie in western UP.

But today, thanks to the speeches given by the BJP's topmost leaders – not to mention the ground level campaign by its workers – that promise of a return to a communally harmonious period has vanished.

So, the farmers' agitation will have no impact on the ongoing elections? Ahlawat expands: "In Bihar and UP, farmers' problems can never become an election issue. Here it is jaati, biradari aur kshetra (caste, community and region)." To make it plainer, he adds: "The price of sugarcane was the highest during Mayawati's time as chief minister. But no one outside her community voted for her, and she lost the next elections in 2012."

The OBCs

Bhainsi is part of the Khatauli assembly segment, where the popular consensus is that the contest is between the BJP's sitting MLA, Vikram Saini, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) 's Rajpal Saini. Vikram Saini's checkered history is a perfect fit for the BJP's campaign strategy. Last August, charges were framed against him for his role in the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 that began in his home village of Karwal. Two months later, in October, a special court acquitted him "for lack of evidence".

The Sainis are an OBC community. One of its most significant faces in the state, Dharam Singh Saini, was a minister in Yogi Adityanath's government till he quit to join the SP, the RLD's ally recently. He left - as did some other OBC ministers – charging the BJP with not permitting its OBCs to be anything more than token representatives of their communities.

But, here in Bhainsi, it has not caused a ripple in the Saini community. Sushil Kumar Saini, who describes himself as a farmer of modest means, begins by complaining about rising prices, but his son, Govind Saini, explains: "If prices don't go up, the economy won't grow, our teachers have told us." But that is Sushil Saini's only complaint: he dismisses the farmers' agitation as just "politics" and blames cattle owners for the stray cattle menace – that has resulted in the destruction of crops across the state - not the government that has forbidden the slaughter of cows that no longer give milk or the official gaushalas where such animals cannot be parked without paying a hefty bribe.

When it comes to polling day, Sushil Saini says, the community vote "will get divided because both the main candidates are from the community, but the BJP will get 70 per cent. Most of us are voting BJP because it is a Hindu party; it has shown Muslims their place."

Govind's ambition is to be a sub-inspector of police, and he believes that the police who brutally beat up his fellow students in Prayagraj, where they were preparing for exams in college hostels, were correct to do so, as the young people were "troublemakers". The conversation concludes with father and son chorusing that "law and order" is the key issue in these elections and expressing undiluted admiration for Yogi Adityanath for putting "members of one community in their place".

In another Saini home, a restless Puja, dressed in a well-worn tracksuit, is sitting in the courtyard of her house with her grandmother Ramo. Puja has just completed her graduation in computer applications and is looking for a job. She says she doesn't like the BJP candidate Vikram Saini because he "uses bad language", but ends by saying, "It doesn't matter. I will vote for him as I want Yogi to be Chief Minister again. He has given rations to the poor, he did good work during the corona outbreak, he gave Rs 6,000 to every farmer – and I can stay out till late without fear." Ramo nods in agreement.

Amit Saini, who has just finished his intermediate exams, and hopes to go to college now, is chatting with his grandfather, Kaliram. Acknowledging that the Sainis will be divided, he, however, says, "We are with the flower (BJP) – there is no other face except that of Yogi. My family once voted for Akhilesh (Yadav) when he came to power in 2007, but since then have been voting BJP. Yogi has a good character – he thinks about Hindutva. If our government is formed again, our voices will be heard."

Indeed, after a whole day in Bhainsi, I hear only one Saini who says that the RLD candidate will get more Saini votes than the BJP.

The Pals are another small OBC community. In Bhainsi, they appear to have prospered. If Swaraj Singh Pal has eked out a living farming and sometimes labouring on other people's fields, his nephew and niece, who are home for a family wedding, have their feet already firmly planted on the ladder of success. Nephew Prince Kumar is a chartered accountant; first cousin Mansi is a college student.

Both are open in their admiration for Yogi Adityanath for running a tight administration and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his "vision of a digital India". They, too, believe that law and order is a top issue in these elections but are less hostile to the Muslims than the Jats and the Sainis. They feel that the more obstreperous among Jat Hindu youth, along with Muslims, have been shown their place by the administration.

What about Priyanka Gandhi giving 40 per cent of the Congress tickets to women? Mansi laughs: "Even the girl on the Congress poster – who must have been an important person – was denied a ticket, forcing her to go to another party. The Congress is a joke."

The Brahmins

Of the upper castes in Bhainsi, the Brahmins who by their own account, number close to ten per cent, are as gung ho about Yogi Adityanath as their fellow villagers – except that the language they use is more measured.

Shyam Prakash Sharma, a septuagenarian, says he was once a staunch Congress supporter, but now thanks to the "maturing of the media" and the "growth of social media", he has realised what a hoax the party has always been. All that the Congress has done in 70 years is to be embroiled in one scandal after another, he says.

His double storied home stands behind high walls and a gate. In the front yard, his wife sits chopping tomatoes and shelling peas for lunch, listening to what is being said, occasionally interjecting to add a point to bolster her husband's views.

But it is Sharma who controls the conversation: He acknowledges that there has been "some discomfort because of rising prices and the ill-effects of the coronavirus", but, on the whole, he says, "people are prospering, living in peace" with crime a thing of the past. "Finally, we have two leaders, one in Lucknow and the other in Delhi, who are saints, not motivated by their own selfish interests," Sharma concludes.

But things are really not that rosy in the Sharma home. One of the sons, Vikas Sharma, an MSc in mathematics, who was a college lecturer for some years in Ajmer, Rajasthan, and then more recently in Muzaffarnagar, is jobless now. He says bravely that "family circumstances" – becoming the principal caregiver for his ageing parents – has forced him into this situation. But Muzaffarnagar is just 21 km away, and he could have combined a college job with taking care of his parents. The more probable reason is that he was laid off.

But he doesn't blame anyone for his situation: the corona deaths in the state were given a "political colour", the farmers' agitation was captured by the Khalistanis, Rakesh Tikait has "only enriched himself", and Yogi Aditynath is sarvottam (the best).
The naysayers

Only two communities in Bhainsi are not buying into the BJP's storyline, the Scheduled Castes (largely from the Jatav community) and the Muslims, who together represent somewhere between 26 to 30 per cent of the total population here. The SCs are between 16 to 20 per cent, while the Muslims account for 10 per cent.

It is from members of these two communities that you hear about the hardships – of jobs that were lost during the pandemic, of an inequitable justice system that has them at its mercy, and of social exclusion. Opposite the Shiv Temple is a row of shabby tenements, with tiny ill-lit, dank rooms all jammed together. The side that fronts the main road houses buffalo stalls and godowns, with the living quarters opening onto the narrow lanes that criss-cross the area: only cycles and two-wheelers can pass through them.

Nishu, a Jatav, is pursuing a BA degree in Jain College, like her sister. A third sister has completed a BEd degree from Meerut. "At least 15 members of my family will vote for the elephant," she says, stressing, "The Bahujan Samaj Party is our family and gives us our government. During the Covid lockdown, so many people lost jobs. There was nothing to eat. During Mayawati's time, no one starved, and everyone had work, however small." But crime is under control, surely? Nothing has changed for us, she says, it is like it was before. Her uncle Sevaram adds that the only difference is there is more fear of being punished.

Noor Mohammad is a young man who runs a corner shop that sells biscuits, chips and other snacks. He is nervous at first, trying to gauge my views. He talks of spiralling prices, unemployment and the tyranny of the police. His friend, Burha Mansoori, expands on the last theme: "The nature of crime has changed: earlier it was loot; now it is mob lynching. People stop you, ask you what your religion and caste is, and if it doesn't suit them, they beat you up, videotape and put it on the net. That is our reality." Who will they vote? The SP-RLD combine is the only possible choice for them. "We just want a government that thinks of the poor," concludes Noor.

Clearly, crime is an important issue for everyone in Bhainsi— it just means different things to different people.

(Smita Gupta is a journalist, and this is the first of a multi-part series on the ongoing elections in Uttar Pradesh by her. In each report, she will profile a village, capturing the granular details of everyday life and the conversations of its residents as they approach voting day. This first report is from Bhainsi, a village in the Khatauli assembly segment, located in the Muzaffarnagar district. Khatauli goes to polls on February 10.)