<p>New Delhi: Human-induced climate change may have raised the average global temperature by nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of 2023, compared to before the 1700s, according to a new study published on Monday.</p><p>The study coincides with the start of the UN Climate Summit at Baku where countries will seek to come out with a new climate finance mechanism to tackle the dangerous consequences of climate change.</p>.Trump and trade worries cloud COP29 climate summit in Baku.<p>It also comes out on the same day when the World Meteorological Organisation issued a red alert, saying 2024 is on track to become the warmest year on record and the last ten years (2015-24) would end up as the warmest decade in history.</p><p>In their study in <em>Nature Geosciences</em>, Andrew Jarvis and Piers Forster from Lancaster University, UK have calculated that human-induced warming nearly touched 1.49 degrees Celsius in 2023 (when compared against pre 1700 CE). Going by the same yardstick, Oct 2024 was 1.53 degrees Celsius warmer than 1700s.</p><p>But checked against the time frame of 1850-1900 that is used in climate negotiations, the warming is a bit less, though it is still on course to touch the 1.5 degrees C guardrail in a decade.</p><p>“Our estimate of the Paris relevant human caused warming was 1.31 degrees Celsius in 2023 and is 1.35 C currently. This means we will pass Paris 1.5 in under 10 years,” Forster said.</p><p>The findings are based on a new approach for assessing the impact of human-induced warming using Antarctic ice core data covering the last two millennia, and suggest that Earth may be closer to the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit than previously thought.</p><p>“The negotiations need to stop us hurtling past 1.5 degrees to ever hotter climates and their devastating impacts. If we really co-operate and deliver on our promises, we can delay the time of crossing and limit how much we exceed 1.5C.”</p><p>In the 2015 Paris agreement, the nations agreed to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using the 1850–1900 global temperature anomaly data as the pre-industrial baseline condition.“</p><p>If we build climate resilience into our societies, we can give the world a chance. The physics of climate change is not waiting around for geopolitics to sort itself out, so nations need to work together,” Forster said.</p><p>The 2024 climate update from WMO said the Jan-Sept 2024 global average temperature was 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level, even though long-term warming measured over decades remains below 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p><p>According to the UN meteorological body, the past 10 years were the warmest on record with a rapid rise in ocean heat. The Antarctic sea ice level is the second lowest on record while glacier loss has accelerated.</p><p>“The level of greenhouse gases reached a record high in 2023 with real time data indicating that they would continue to rise in 2024,” the WMO report said.</p>
<p>New Delhi: Human-induced climate change may have raised the average global temperature by nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of 2023, compared to before the 1700s, according to a new study published on Monday.</p><p>The study coincides with the start of the UN Climate Summit at Baku where countries will seek to come out with a new climate finance mechanism to tackle the dangerous consequences of climate change.</p>.Trump and trade worries cloud COP29 climate summit in Baku.<p>It also comes out on the same day when the World Meteorological Organisation issued a red alert, saying 2024 is on track to become the warmest year on record and the last ten years (2015-24) would end up as the warmest decade in history.</p><p>In their study in <em>Nature Geosciences</em>, Andrew Jarvis and Piers Forster from Lancaster University, UK have calculated that human-induced warming nearly touched 1.49 degrees Celsius in 2023 (when compared against pre 1700 CE). Going by the same yardstick, Oct 2024 was 1.53 degrees Celsius warmer than 1700s.</p><p>But checked against the time frame of 1850-1900 that is used in climate negotiations, the warming is a bit less, though it is still on course to touch the 1.5 degrees C guardrail in a decade.</p><p>“Our estimate of the Paris relevant human caused warming was 1.31 degrees Celsius in 2023 and is 1.35 C currently. This means we will pass Paris 1.5 in under 10 years,” Forster said.</p><p>The findings are based on a new approach for assessing the impact of human-induced warming using Antarctic ice core data covering the last two millennia, and suggest that Earth may be closer to the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit than previously thought.</p><p>“The negotiations need to stop us hurtling past 1.5 degrees to ever hotter climates and their devastating impacts. If we really co-operate and deliver on our promises, we can delay the time of crossing and limit how much we exceed 1.5C.”</p><p>In the 2015 Paris agreement, the nations agreed to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using the 1850–1900 global temperature anomaly data as the pre-industrial baseline condition.“</p><p>If we build climate resilience into our societies, we can give the world a chance. The physics of climate change is not waiting around for geopolitics to sort itself out, so nations need to work together,” Forster said.</p><p>The 2024 climate update from WMO said the Jan-Sept 2024 global average temperature was 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level, even though long-term warming measured over decades remains below 1.5 degrees Celsius.</p><p>According to the UN meteorological body, the past 10 years were the warmest on record with a rapid rise in ocean heat. The Antarctic sea ice level is the second lowest on record while glacier loss has accelerated.</p><p>“The level of greenhouse gases reached a record high in 2023 with real time data indicating that they would continue to rise in 2024,” the WMO report said.</p>