'Extended period of uneasy stalemate likely on India-China LAC'

Lt Gen (Retd) D S Hooda, former GoC-in-C of the Northern Command of the Indian Army, tells DH’s Anirban Bhaumik that early settlement of two-year-long crisis along India-China LAC is unlikely.

India-China negotiations to resolve the LAC stand-off are stalled. Why?

I would not go as far as to say that the negotiations are stalled. There have been progresses at Galwan, Pangong Tso and Gogra, which have seen disengagement of troops. Talks are ongoing at the military and diplomatic levels. What is apparent is that both sides are not willing to easily concede to each other’s demands on the terms of the disengagement. With the ongoing stand-off in eastern Ladakh in full public glare, neither side would like their actions to be construed as a sign of weakness. Therefore, we should not expect an early resolution of the crisis. Unfortunately, this probably means an extended period of what could be called an uneasy stalemate LAC.

Read | LAC stand-off: Two years and counting

The new Indian Army chief, Gen Manoj Pande, recently reiterated India’s demand for return to the pre-April-2020 status quo ante along the LAC with China. Is it at all possible?

The disengagement at Galwan, Pangong Tso, and Gogra have resulted in the creation of buffer zones, where neither side can conduct patrolling. Therefore, it can be said that the situation is already different from what existed prior to April 2020 when India was patrolling up to its perception of the LAC. However, Gen Pande was making the larger point that the Chinese soldiers must withdraw from all the areas that they had come in during May 2020. This is a practical way to look at the status quo ante because the more important issue currently is of disengagement and de-escalation in eastern Ladakh. Once that is settled, further discussions between the two militaries could be conducted on the buffer zones.

Read | India’s China challenge

Will the LAC now perpetually remain as tense as the (India-Pakistan) LoC?

With the breakdown of all Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) due to Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s military actions in May 2020, there is now a great deal of mistrust in India about China’s intentions. Even if both sides resolve the current stand-off, we are not going back to the level of pre-2020 deployment. The Indian Army has already deployed more troops along the LAC and defences will be strengthened to ensure that there is no repeat of what happened in 2020. However, while both sides will remain wary and suspicious of each other, I don’t think we will come to a situation similar to the LoC, which sees regular firing and deaths and injuries to soldiers. Neither side is willing to escalate tensions to this level.

Do you think China could achieve the strategic objective with which it had amassed a large number of troops along its LAC with India in April-May, 2020?

China’s strategic objectives are a matter of speculation. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said that China has offered “five differing explanations” for its deployment of thousands of soldiers on the LAC. However, what is clear on the ground is that the Chinese troops did attempt to unilaterally push the LAC westward. There was some success in the initial stages, but the strong Indian military response, including the occupation of the Kailash Range in August 2020, has led to the withdrawal of Chinese soldiers from certain areas. We will have to wait for a final settlement to make a firm assessment about what objectives have been achieved.

If we look at the larger picture, China’s military push in 2020 has achieved very little. India has firmly stood up to the attempt at military coercion and has clearly stated that the future of bilateral relations is contingent on the situation at the LAC. India has indicated that it is willing to ride out the situation, but will not compromise on its demand for restoring the status quo ante.