Northeast: Perennially on a powder keg?

The recent Kuki-Meitei clashes in Manipur revealed that the northeastern region remains a tinderbox despite the government’s tall claims about the return of peace

Sanajaoba Naren Singh was not convinced when Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed last year that peace had returned to troubled Manipur since the BJP’s ascent to power in the state in 2018. “A strong sense of anger and suspicion among the different communities was always palpable as so many issues remained unresolved," Singh told DH. His worst fears had come true on May 3, when a fierce ethnic clash between the Kukis and the Meiteis erupted near his village in Churachandpur and soon spread to other areas in Manipur. The 43-year-old graphic designer fled his home after the houses of the Meitei families like his were set ablaze by a mob of angry Kukis.

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The dominant Kukis targeted the minority Meiteis in Churachandpur, one of the hill districts of Manipur. The reprisals came quickly in Imphal Valley, where the minority Kukis were mostly at the receiving end of the attacks by the majority Meiteis. More than 60 persons have been killed, while over 17,000 houses have been burnt down and over 35,000 people of both the communities were displaced as the clashes raged for almost a week.

It was a move to grant the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Meiteis that triggered the violence. The Meiteis, who are mostly Hindu and account for 53% of the northeastern state’s population, have been demanding the ST status for protecting their identity and culture against the predominantly Christian Kukis and the Nagas, who of course have been opposing such a move, as they fear it could marginalise them further. The drive by the state’s BJP government to clear the forests from encroachers and a crackdown against opium cultivation and the growing concerns among the Meiteis over alleged illegal immigration of the Kukis from neighbouring Myanmar also escalated the hill-valley tension that reached a flashpoint this month.

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Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to break the cycle of violence in the northeastern region by 2024, the Kuki-Meitei clashes in Manipur provided a reality check and, according to the experts, similar tension between communities over unresolved issues in other states of the region might also result in bloodshed in future.

"It’s purely an ethnic violence with exceeding fears of losing identity," said Shyam Jyoti, a Jawaharlal Nehru University researcher, who studied the northeastern region. "Indigenous communities in the region have suffered a lot due to the uncontrolled influx of immigrants. It’s about fear of becoming a minority in their own land,” she said. “The ST status is not only about jobs and permits to educational institutions in reserved categories. It’s much more than that.”

In Assam, six communities – Ahoms, Morans, Mottocks, Chutias, Koch Rajbongshis and the tea-tribes – have been demanding the ST status for decades. But the nine existing ST communities have been opposing it, fearing that such a move would leave their shares of the pie smaller. “The violence in Manipur must be taken as a warning. We have been agitating peacefully for our rights but our patience should not be considered as our weakness," Biswajit Ray, the general secretary of the Koch Rajbongshi Jatiya Parishad, told DH. "The present government can give us the ST status as the BJP is in power both at the Centre and in the state," he said. Assam has over 27 lahks Koch Rajbongshis.

Several Kuki insurgent groups in Manipur have entered into ceasefire agreements with the government since 2008, but a final peace deal has not been struck with any of them yet. The security agencies suspect that some of the Kuki insurgent groups were involved in the recent violence against the Meiteis. Several valley-based Meitei insurgent groups, which are yet to join the peace process, are also suspected to have taken part in the attacks against the Kukis.

In Assam, the ‘pro-talks’ faction of the Ulfa, a major insurgent group, on May 11 refused to accept the government's proposal to sign a final agreement without ensuring “political and Constitutional safeguards” for the state's indigenous communities. "An agreement without political and constitutional safeguards will make our entire struggle futile," said Anup Chetia, the general secretary of the Ulfa, which demanded 88% per cent reservation of the seats in the elected bodies for the indigenous people. The Ulfa-Independent, another faction of the organisation, on the other hand, has not yet joined the peace process.

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The Centre in 2019 had reintroduced the Inner Line Permit (ILP) in Manipur after the strong anti-CAA agitation. But the demand for ILP has often kept Meghalaya tense. Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland already have ILP, under which outsiders require a travel permit. In Assam, the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which was seen as a weapon to detect "illegal migrants," has remained incomplete. In fact, it was the anti-foreigner movement that gave birth to the Ulfa insurgency in Assam.

Assam has border conflicts with Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya and the same too has caused deaths and destruction to those living along the inter-state borders (see graphics). The issue of rehabilitation of the Chakma and Hajong "refugees" in Arunachal Pradesh may also trigger similar violence. Tribals want relocation of the Chakma-Hajong outside Arunachal Pradesh, while the Chakma-Hajongs are against it saying most of them are now Indian citizens by virtue of birth.

As hundreds like Naren Singh have taken shelter in relief camps guarded by the army in Manipur, the call for finding a solution to all the vexed conflicts in the Northeastern states has got louder. "Otherwise, making the Northeast conflict-free will remain merely a political rhetoric," Singh said.