PM’s state visit to US: What does Biden want from Modi?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming state visit to America is a big deal. In inviting Modi to a state visit, a high honour that American Presidents bestow on chosen leaders, and in calling him to address a joint session of the United States Congress a second time, the Biden Democrats have come a long way on, to borrow from the BBC, The Modi Question. What’s Biden playing for?

There are, of course, the many billions India wants to spend on buying US military equipment – the $3-billion Predator MQ-9B armed drone, the deal to produce the GE F414 jet engines in India, etc. But Biden did not have to serenade Modi with a state visit for these purchases. India would buy these anyway if the US was willing to sell. Of course, the US wants India to take a strong line against Russia over Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and shift camp fully to the West. But these deals will not be enough to move the needle of Indian foreign policy quite so radically.

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There is, of course, the American desire for greater access, and favourable rules, for its companies in the Indian market. India has, in turn, demanded American technology, especially military and dual-use technology. After false starts on either side, the momentum may have picked up in recent months. The Modi government has, contrary to its proclaimed Hindutva nationalism, opened India up to foreign universities. It is likely that a key sector – insurance – will be opened up further to the likes of AIG Inc. The US, meanwhile, has become more willing to share technology, including critical emerging technologies, as confirmed by the recent iCET arrangement.

None of this can still explain why the US is rolling out the red carpet for Modi quite the way it is doing. For that, we must look at the context of the Modi visit from the American viewpoint. As China has emerged out of its Covid isolation, it has become clear that Xi Jinping is in a greater hurry than ever to settle the Taiwan question on his terms, especially as China’s economic prospects have dimmed. This is why the Biden administration is in a hurry to rally America’s allies in Asia.

Read | Beyond Modi-Biden meeting, India-US relations will need constant tending

In recent months, Biden has treated South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, too, to a state visit, and hosted Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr at the White House. And Japan has effected a rapprochement with both South Korea and Taiwan. The one big partner in Asia that’s not fully on board is India. The serenading of Modi is meant to get India on board. The last time Modi addressed the US Congress, he had spoken of “overcoming the hesitations of history.” Biden is inviting him to walk the talk.

From the US viewpoint, the time for India to rise at its own pace to become a passive counterweight to China is over. America needs India as a frontline state against China now. It is willing to fulfil the promise that Condoleeza Rice made in March 2005, four months before George Bush hosted Manmohan Singh for a state visit and proposed the India-US nuclear deal: That America was willing to help quicken India’s rise to major power status, including by selling it advanced military equipment. Will Modi, who has not been able to dislodge the Chinese completely from the Ladakh region even three years after the massacre of 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan Valley, sign up for this deal?