Saffron’s southern scheme: Will ‘Look Beyond Vindhyas’ work for BJP in 2024?

Even as the BJP is going all out to retain power in Karnataka, it has drawn up a plan to expand to neighbouring Telangana, Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Kerala

Credit: DH Graphic

The southern states, barring Karnataka, have always been tough nuts to crack for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which could not make any significant impact in the region even as the rest of the country was swept by the Narendra Modi wave in 2014 and 2019.

In the 2019 parliamentary polls, the BJP and its allies won in just 30 of the total 130 constituencies in the southern states. It won as many as 25 seats from Karnataka and had a surprise win in four constituencies in Telangana. The party, however, drew a blank in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh.

Credit: DH Illustration

Four years down the line, the BJP is still struggling to make inroads in most of the southern states, though it seems to have made some gains in Telangana, where the party has won two bye-elections defeating the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, now Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in 2020 and 2021 and pulled off an impressive show in the elections to Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) in 2020.

Also read | The rise and fall of the first Congress-JD(S) government in Karnataka

Except in Puducherry, where the party tied up with All India N R Congress and is now part of the cabinet, the BJP has not made any major gain in the other southern states, though the outreach has increased manifold. But a loss in Karnataka or a poor show in Telangana where the BJP is projecting itself as the prime challenger to TRS will come as a setback to its efforts as the Lok Sabha elections are just a year away.

The BJP has set its eyes on Telangana as it has drawn up its plan to expand in other southern states beyond Karnataka. The party invested heavily in the country’s youngest state since 2019. Apart from working on the ground by reaching out to every section, the BJP is also working overtime to identify disgruntled leaders from the Congress and the BRS as it needs strong candidates.

Tamil Nadu is also very critical in the BJP’s scheme of things as the party believes it is one of the few large states, where the Congress has a strong ally.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh said that the challenge for the BJP was coming from the South with leaders like M K Stalin, Pinarayi Vijayan, and K Chandrashekar Rao projecting themselves as champions of federalism and standing up for the rights of the states.

“Having secured its dominance in the cow belt, the BJP is obviously looking at the South, especially Telangana and Tamil Nadu. The BJP has a compulsion to make its mark in the South,” Bhagwan told DH. “When the chips were down for Indira Gandhi after the Emergency, it was the South that kept her above the tumultuous wave. So, the BJP too will have to continue focussing beyond the North.”

The BJP has handed over its leadership to young people in the southern states and is attempting social engineering.

With the Muslims constituting a considerable proportion of the electorate in Telangana, the BJP is apparently making an attempt to polarise voters in the state, where state assembly elections will be held later this year. Amit Shah, the union home minister, recently sounded the poll bugle by promising to end the 4% quota for Muslims after the BJP’s ascent to power in the state. It is to be seen whether or not the strategy of polarisation that has won seats for BJP in northern states could also work for it Telangana, as the state never voted on communal lines, except in pockets.

Also Read: BJP has chalked out its outreach plans for southern states ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls

The strategy adopted for Tamil Nadu, which the BJP perceives as one of the last ideological fortresses it must breach, is totally different. While the party’s immediate goal is to put up an impressive show in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls along with its ally AIADMK and to prove that Modi is not as unpopular in the state as was projected by the DMK in 2019, the ultimate aim is to emerge as the political and ideological alternative to the Dravidian parties.

The multi-pronged strategy also includes targeting the DMK on corruption, wooing the people of Tamil Nadu through infrastructure projects and winning their confidence through cultural diplomacy. Two cultural events celebrating links Tamil Nadu has had with Varanasi and Saurashtra region in Gujarat saw the active participation of the prime minister, himself, who makes it a point to flaunt his “love” for Tamil at every given opportunity. Besides, the BJP is trying very hard to break the Hindi-Hindutva image it has acquired over the decades with the party’s state chief K Annamalai pleading that he doesn’t know Hindi and he will be the first to oppose if any other language is imposed on the Tamils.

In Kerala, the party is going all out to woo the numerically-strong Christian community with the prime minister, himself, leading the efforts by meeting the church leaders. With iconic Congress leaders from the community like A K Antony and Oommen Chandy retiring or keeping away from active politics, the BJP is trying to snatch a chunk of the traditional votes of its rival. The BJP also believes that a few Christian groups not sharing the best of the relationship with Muslims may also come to its help. A major chunk of high-range farmers are from the Christian community and hence issues like rubber prices are being highlighted, with Tellicherry (Thalassery) Metropolitan archbishop Mar Joseph Pamplany even offering electoral support to the BJP if rubber prices are increased to Rs 300 per kg.

The recent decision of some leaders of the regional party Kerala Congress (Joseph), which has considerable influence among the Christian vote banks of central Kerala, to form a new party, is also considered to be a move to back the BJP.

(With inputs from Arjun Raghunath and Prasad Nichenametla)