Tensions within BJP prompt troubleshooting

The BJP seems to have become a party of differences among leaders in many key states that it rules

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tight grip on the BJP appears to be slipping. The party’s impregnable discipline – a key hallmark since Modi and Amit Shah got hold of the reins of the BJP in 2014 – appears to be dented by constant bickering. While developments in Karnataka have been making headlines, tensions are simmering elsewhere too, particularly in the Hindi heartland which had stood strongly by the BJP in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Voices of dissent are being heard within the BJP in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Goa and even Tripura, prompting troubleshooter and BJP General Secretary (Organisation) B L Santosh to criss-cross the country to smoothen the ruffled feathers.

Santosh, a vocal general secretary (organisation) of the BJP, has spent the past few weeks in Dehradun, Lucknow, Panaji and Agartala to hear out the grievances of party workers as murmurs have suddenly increased in the BJP after its defeat in the West Bengal elections.

The rumblings in the party are a worrying development for the central leadership ahead of the elections to five states, including UP, early next year. A poor performance in the most populous state could have a direct impact on BJP’s re-election prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

After sweeping to power in 2017 in UP, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘tough taskmaster’ image took a severe beating during the second wave of Covid-19 as visuals of corpses floating in the Ganga and mass burials along the river banks dominated news television screens. The chinks in the BJP’s armour were further exposed when BJP veteran and Union Minister Santosh Gangwar wrote an open letter criticising the Yogi government’s handling of Covid-19 situation and the rule of the bureaucracy with scant regard for elected representatives.

Also read: Polls and performance to guide imminent Cabinet reshuffle of Modi government

Gangwar’s letter scraped off the veneer of stability in UP as some MLAs also complained against the chief minister’s style of functioning. “What is our standing anyway? If we MLAs speak too much, then we too will have to face sedition charges,” BJP MLA Rakesh Rathore was heard saying in a video that went viral on social media pointing a finger at the strong-arm tactics of the state government.

The voices of dissent in UP began after the BJP fared poorly in the panchayat elections last month, and grew as the Covid-19 mismanagement in the state hogged the headlines. An alarmed BJP rushed interlocutors to Lucknow, knowing fully well that any slip up in India’s most populous state could cost the party dear in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s tally in UP had slipped from 71 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 elections to 62 in 2019. However, any further dent in the numbers could affect its national tally in 2024.

A flurry of meetings in Lucknow and the summoning of Yogi to Delhi for talks with Modi and Shah besides the BJP President J P Nadda triggered speculation about the chief minister’s imminent exit. Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya’s comments about the BJP not deciding on who would lead the next election in the state added to the grist. During his meetings in Delhi, the BJP leadership is learnt to have nudged Yogi to carry out a cabinet reshuffle to ensure representation for allies and caste leaders. But a week after Yogi’s visit to the national capital, that cabinet reshuffle is yet to materialise. Santosh is expected to be in Lucknow again on Monday and all eyes would be on the developments there.

In Uttarakhand, the sudden change in the Chief Minister in March appears to have done no good for the BJP. The new chief minister Tirath Singh Rawat has been in a war of words with his predecessor Trivendra Singh Rawat over the alleged irregularities in the conduct of RT-PCR tests for the Kumbh Mela. Trivendra had ruffled many feathers in the BJP extended family through his decisions to take over the temple boards in the hill state and the cautious approach over Kumbh Mela. Tirath reversed the stand, but the spike in Covid-19 cases after the Kumbh Mela and his failure to strike a working relationship with the regional leaders has the BJP worried. The tiny hill state has a range of leaders with competing ambitions, add to that a galaxy of senior leaders who crossed over from the Congress ahead of the 2017 assembly elections and you have a potent mix for trouble.

In Rajasthan, the central leadership’s attempts to sideline former chief minister Vasundhara Raje have come cropper and left her to chart her own course. Raje’s loyalists have floated the ‘Vasundhra Raje Samarthak Manch’ causing much discomfort within the party. BJP’s plans to prop up Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat as an alternative to Raje have not moved forward. Raje had swept the 2013 assembly elections and delivered all the 25 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. She has resisted the attempts of Modi-Shah duo to bring her to national politics and leave the state for new leadership to take root.

Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh too have challengers snapping at the feet of chief ministers Vijay Rupani and Shivraj Singh Chouhan turning the BJP’s once assured states into problem areas that need urgent tending to by the central leadership.

Landslide victory

In Tripura, BJP sprung a surprise landslide victory in the 2018 assembly elections, unseating the 25-year-old Left Front government by wooing dissidents within the Congress and the Trinamool. BJP achieved this with help from Mukul Roy, the trusted lieutenant of Mamata Banerjee, who had crossed over in 2017.

With Roy back in the Trinamool camp after Banerjee’s victory in the West Bengal elections, BJP is feeling the jitters in Tripura. Roy made a call to Sudip Roy Barman, the disgruntled BJP leader who was dropped by the Tripura council of ministers in 2019.

In Goa, Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, the protege of late chief minister Manohar Parrikar, is at loggerheads with the ambitious Vishwajeet Rane, who had quit the Congress to join the BJP in 2017.

Also read: BJP top brass talk strategy after Yogi-Modi meet

After the Covid-19 pandemic, intra-party issues have emerged as the biggest challenge for the BJP and it appears to have walked the same path as the Congress in its heydays leading to acute lack of talent and second rung leadership.

After the 1984 defeat, L K Advani expanded the BJP by inducting fresh talent and encouraging them to chart their own paths in the respective states, Modi’s emphasis on a strong centre has led to appointment of rubber stamp chief ministers who have failed to bloom with the exception of Yogi Adityanath and B S Yediurappa. The choice of chief ministers in most of the states may have strengthened Modi’s position at the Centre but it was at the cost of the party. The Atal-Advani era saw the emergence of leaders such as Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Uma Bharti, Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Kalyan Singh among others.

Under Modi, the absence of powerful leaders is acutely felt in states such as MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and even Delhi. The BJP may breathe easy with the lack of cohesion in the opposition ranks and the Congress’ failure to put its house in order. The maxim - nature abhors a vacuum - holds true in politics as well and throws up unexpected leaders. In 2014, not many had thought of Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray becoming the CM of Maharashtra, but an unlikely alliance made it possible.

It may not bode well for the BJP to seek solace in the ‘TINA’ factor as politics is full of surprises as was evident in 1996 when H D Deve Gowda became the Prime Minister. More recently, in 2004, the Congress found itself as the single largest party at a time when another term for the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee appeared a near certainty.