UP Elections: BJP has edge but worries remain

‘Forced’ to back Yogi Adityanath in the intra-party tussle owing mainly to ‘’electoral compulsions’’ despite open resentment within the party over his style of functioning, BJP’s hopes to return to power in the next assembly polls in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh now hinges almost entirely on its firebrand Hindutva poster boy.

Apparently realising that his own political future will depend largely on the results of the polls, due to be held in March 2022, Adityanath, who had unexpectedly been handed the reins of the state after the saffron party’s resounding victory in the 2017 elections, has stolen a march over his rivals by hitting the campaign trail. However, apprehensions remain on his ability to deliver given widespread criticism of his government over ‘mismanagement’ during the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic.

BJP has already dropped hints that ‘Hindutva, conversion, love jihad’’ will be at the centre of its agenda in the upcoming assembly polls though the party will also seek to showcase the ‘pro-people’ initiatives undertaken by the Centre and the state governments to the electorate.

It also plans to flaunt what it claims ‘ending’ the ‘mafia raj’ and restoring the rule of law by killing around 150 ‘criminals’ and injuring over 3,000 in `encounters’ since 2017, when the party came to power. Many of these encounters, however, have been termed ‘fake’ by rights experts and even former UP IPS officers.

‘’Ram Temple construction is going on in full swing….Important Hindu religious places like Vindhyachal, Chitrakoot, Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Mathura and Varanasi are being developed to provide more facilities to the visiting pilgrims….the previous governments had completely ignored them,’’ said a BJP leader.

A well-oiled election machinery, support from the IT cell, organisational presence at booth level and a strong network of committed RSS workers along with the support of the saffron outfits make the BJP a strong favourite to win the 2022 assembly polls in UP. A divided opposition may also be an advantage for the saffron party.

The induction of more ministers from different castes from the poll-bound state in the Union Cabinet was also intended mainly to keep the powerful ‘kurmi’ community, considered to be a vote bank of the BJP, in good humour ahead of the polls. BJP’s massive win in the ‘Avadh’ region in UP in 2017 assembly polls was largely owing to the support of the ‘kurmis’.

Also read: Uttar Pradesh Elections: A divided Opposition

Apprehensions, however, remain among the BJP leaders on whether the party will be able to keep its support base intact under a constant opposition onslaught over rising prices, farmers’ issues and Covid mismanagement besides its attempts to make a dent into the upper caste and OBC vote bank. Interestingly, unlike in the past, the election strategy of the BJP this time does not revolve only around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Adityanath, the party feels, has emerged as an almost equally capable vote catcher as far as UP is concerned.

‘’We could have had a smooth sailing in the next polls had it not been for the second wave of Covid-19 and the farmers’ agitation…we may have problems in the western region,’’ admitted the BJP leader.

Apparently wary of the impact of the ongoing agitation by the farmers against the new farm laws, BJP has been trying frantically to reach out to them through a statewide ‘Kisan Sampark Yatra, kisan chaupals’ and ‘Kisan Panchayat’ in different parts of the state, especially in the western region.

Although for the record, the BJP leaders reject assertions that the farmers’ anger may hurt them in the polls, they admit off the record that it may hit their electoral prospects. ‘’The farmers’ agitation may have some impact in the western UP region....the Bhartiya Kisan Union, which is organising the protests, is active in several western UP districts,’’ the BJP leader admitted.

“Farmers’ angry”

BKU leader Rakesh Tikait has been campaigning among the farmers in different regions of the state trying to ‘expose’ the BJP’s ‘anti-farmer’ policies. He had recently visited Lucknow and had threatened to hold a ‘Ghazipur border’ like protest. Guruvachan Singh, a journalist based at Baghpat in western UP, also echoes a similar sentiment. ‘’Farmers are very angry with the BJP…they think that the party has betrayed them…BJP can ill-afford to take their anger lightly,’’ he told DH.

Large scale deaths during the second wave of pandemic from shortage of oxygen, the scenes of burning of pyres at crematoriums and wailing of the attendants of Covid patients at hospital gates after being denied admission, could haunt the BJP in the polls especially as the opposition parties have vowed to keep raising them. To add to the woes of the BJP, many of its own legislators dismissed the government’s claim that no deaths were caused by shortage of oxygen. ‘’Hundreds died owing to oxygen shortage....no one feels the pain and anguish of the kin of the dead’’ BJP MLA Shyam Prakash wrote on his Facebook page recently.

Dissension within the BJP rank and file over Adityanath’s style of functioning may also be a cause for worry for the party. Several party leaders, including Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya had demanded that Adityanath be replaced to contain the damage arising out of Covid mismanagement.

Resentment among the electorally influential brahmin community has turned out to be another headache for the BJP. Brahimns, who have been traditional supporters of the BJP, feel that they are being targeted by the Adityanath government. Several brahmin BJP lawmakers and leaders have also criticised the state government for ‘persecution’ of the community. ‘’Brahmins are being targeted by the government….they are being killed in fake encounters,’’ said BJP MLA Deomani Dwivedi. Apparently sensing an opening, the rival Congress and BSP have launched a massive campaign to reach out to this community.

BSP, which had managed to win the 2007 assembly polls riding on its ‘social engineering’ (Brahmin- Muslim) formula, organised a series of ‘Brahmin Sammelans’ aimed at bringing back the electorally influential community to its fold.

Congress had also launched a statewide campaign to woo the community through ‘Brahmin Chetna Parishad’, when its members visited the brahmin families, which were victims of alleged ‘persecution’. There is also speculation that the Congress may project a brahmin face as its chief ministerial candidate in the forthcoming elections.

BJP tried to sooth the ruffled feathers by inducting Ajai Mishra, an MP from Kheri Lok Sabha seat, and also Jitin Prasada into its fold. Prasada is likely to be nominated for the UP Legislative Council. Media analyst J P Shukla says that upper caste and OBC votes would decide the winner in the next polls. ‘’BJP will have to ensure that its OBC and upper caste support base remains intact.” The results of the assembly polls will also decide the political future of Adityanath. His detractors within the party say that only a resounding victory will enable the saffron clad CM to retain his position.

(The writer is a Lucknow-based journalist)