Uttar Pradesh Elections: A divided Opposition

Less than eight months ahead of polls, Uttar Pradesh is heading for a multi-pronged contest

With less than eight months left to go for the crucial UP Assembly polls, the political landscape of the state, which gave maximum Prime Ministers to the country and Chief Ministers of the stature of G B Pant, Chaudhary Charan Singh, Vishwanath Pratap Singh etc, is as badly muddled as one can imagine.

The triple C of Corona, Casteism and Communalism has taken a centre stage of political discourse and each party is trying to outdo the other. Be it ‘Brahmin Bhaichara Sammelan’ of BSP, BJP’s “Abba Jaan, Taliban and Pakistan’ pitch, or Samajwadi Party’s ‘manifesto versus money-festo’ barb, the political temperature of the state is rising and the cauldron of parochial politics is boiling once again.

While the ruling BJP has pulled out all strings from Ram Mandir to inclusion of 39 castes in OBC category, the much talked about Opposition unity remains a chimera in the most crucial state with a huge 403-member Assembly, which sends 80 Lok Sabha MPs and 31 Rajya Sabha MPs.

Congress, the principal Opposition party at the national level, is yet to get on a recovery path in state, where it went off power after being sandwiched between the competing political Mandir-Mandal (Ram Temple movement-Mandal Commission report) in the 1990s, the regional parties BSP and SP have ruled out aligning with each other even as neither of them seem to be in a good shape to take on a giant BJP on their own.

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai told DH, “Sonia Gandhi and combined Opposition have made it very clear that their target is 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the Opposition ranks are divided and working at a cross purpose. In opposition assessment, UP’s political story is simple and encouraging. Voters will be voting against Yogi-BJP. If there is a hung House, non-NDA parties will come together.”

However, given the complex dynamics of voting patterns in the state, where any party having got even 35 per cent votes, can form a government in the eventuality of a quadrangular contest, raises questions on such a post-poll scenario in a first-past-the-post electoral exercise. In 2017 state polls, BJP had won a massive 312 Assembly seats by getting just 40 per cent votes.

BJP had got nearly 50 per cent votes in the last Lok Sabha polls in 2019. Mayawati’s BSP, at its best in 2007, had secured 30 per cent votes, while Akhilesh Yadav’s SP (even when Mulayam Singh Yadav headed it) could get 29.15 per cent votes during its best show in the state in 2012 polls (when it won an impressive 224 of 403 Assembly seats).

Congress is on a terminal decline having recorded a poor 6.25 per cent in 2017 Assembly polls, a slide by half since 2012 when it had got 11.5 per cent of total votes. Even when Priyanka Gandhi powers Congress performance, the party on its own is far from making a decisive electoral impact. That possibly answers why after one year of aggressive campaigning on issues against the Yogi government in UP, Congress has begun making conciliatory noises, with none other than Priyanka, in a closed door conversation, expressing her being “open to alliances” in the state.

The problem is while the BSP has made it amply clear about not aligning with Congress saying C in the Congress stands for “cunning”, SP has toughened its stand saying it is keen to ally with smaller parties as alliances with big parties like Congress and BSP have not helped. In 2017 Assembly polls, Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi alliance with the campaign theme of “UP ke ladke” failed to make an impact while its alliance with BSP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls ended up giving Mayawati’s party double the number of Lok Sabha seats (10) than SP (five). BSP even snapped ties with Akhilesh Yadav immediately after polls, alleging that the SP’s votes were not transferred to BSP. Mayawati also recently mocked Akhilesh for his “alliance with small parties” pitch, saying it reflected the admission of “weakness” by his party.

While BSP skipped a meeting of Opposition unity called by Sonia Gandhi on August 20, SP’s Akhilesh Yadav wrote a letter to CPI-M’s Sitaram Yechury explaining his inability to attend the meeting. In this background, a united Opposition fight against the BJP is unlikely even though none of the Opposition parties seem to be in a strong position.

But much will also depend on caste alliances, each party manages to weave and here in the role of 200-odd small caste groups from Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Mahadalits will become crucial.

`Ye jaati hi hai jo jaati nahin hai’ (It is the caste, which never goes away), was the anecdotal statement of socialist leader Sharad Yadav, which is so true in the context of UP. A look at the caste politics trajectory of different parties clearly bears this out.

Non-Yadav backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits substantially contributed to BJP’s success in the state since 2014 Lok Sabha polls and also ensured BJP’s return to power in the state in 2017. This also enabled the party to get more than two and half times of 15 per cent votes it had got in 2012 state polls. SP’s victory in 2012 was due to the appeal of Akhilesh Yadav among youths and the ability of Mulayam Singh Yadav to work out a larger OBC identity for the party, going beyond Yadavs and wooing communities like Kurmis and other smaller castes, besides Thakurs and Brahmins.

Dalit-plus politics

BSP’s 2007 victory was largely due Dalit-plus politics of Mayawati in which `Brahmin Bhaichara sammelans’ (Brahmin brotherhood conferences) played a crucial role, more by increasing BSP’s acceptability among other castes besides fetching Brahmin votes. BSP’s then slogan “Brahmin Shankh Bajayega, Haanthi Aage badhta jaayega” (Brahmin will blow the conch cell, Elephant (BSP’s election) symbol will make new strides), is once again back ahead of 2022 elections, forefronting its Brahmin MP Satish Chandra Mishra to woo the community.

The other prominent Brahmin face of BSP Brajesh Pathak is now in BJP. Brahmins, who have solidly backed BJP in last two decades, seem disenchanted with the Yogi regime and all parties have sensed an opportunity to woo them back. BJP recently inducted Congress’ young Brahmin face Jitin Prasada in to the party. SP has promised to build a 108 feet high idol of Lord Parshuram, a Hindu Brahmin saint while BSP said it will name hospitals after him besides making a taller statue.

On the OBC front, Yogi Adityanath government had moved ahead to induct 39 new castes into OBC category, amplifying the OBC messaging after the saffron party had assiduously attempted to go beyond its ‘Brahmin-Baniya party’ tag. In June 2019, the Yogi government even included Mallahs among 17 castes in the list of Scheduled Castes, a decision which was stayed by the Allahabad High Court.

BJP had, in the past, had reached out to non-Jatav Pasi community by honouring the 11th century king Suheldev for his fight against Muslim rulers. Om Prakash Rajbhar, whose party SBSP is named after Suheldev, was an ally of BJP but has parted ways with it and could ally with SP, which has also reached out to smaller parties like Mahan Dal. These smaller parties represent small caste groups. Whichever parties sew up a larger umbrella alliance of different and disparate caste groups, could have the last laugh as the preference of dominant caste groups - Yadavs for SP, Jatavs for BSP and upper castes for BJP - is no secret.

As such, BSP and SP have also much to worry from BJP’s aggressive attempt to woo “Mallahs, Kurmis and paanch pauniya” (five smaller castes, who carry out Hindu rituals): Teli (oil sellers among vaishyas), Kumhar (potter), Naai (barber), Dhobi (washermen), Kahar (palanquin bearers).

With BJP facing massive backlash on Covid-19 management and the Opposition a divided house, experts wonder whether UP will throw results similar to what was witnessed between 1993 and 2004 with no single party able to get a majority - a hung House.