As coronavirus peaks in some states, Karnataka to see 25% spike in November: Study

A comprehensive analysis of Covid-19 data across India has found that Karnataka will continue to peak after other states have ceased with cases rising by nearly 23% by November.

Worryingly, the analysis shows that of the five most-infected states in the country, including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, only Karnataka will see a rise in the number of active cases in the next two weeks.

Of equal alarm is the indication that Dasara and Deepavali festivals will add 80,000 active cases to the state’s numbers.

The analysis was carried out by Dr Shashank Shah, Southeast Asia Institute Fellow '17, Harvard University, Dr Dave Richards, co-founder of the Innovation Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Dr Subramanian Sivakumar whose firm, Pratian technologies, a research and development startup in Whitefield, developed the model which was key to the analysis.

“The 7% jump in cases due the festive season will show up as a significant spike,” explained Dr Sivakumar, who added that the festivals will also add about four lakh active cases to India’s overall Covid-19 caseload. India will have overall 20 lakh cases added by November 15.

The model, which churns through a high amount of granular data on nationwide Covid-19 outbreak, down to the district level, has found that there is no peak in the sight for Karnataka, at least for the next three weeks. The data packet, which was viewed by DH, appears to indicate this.

However, Dr Sivakumar added that there is a silver lining to Karnataka’s plight. “The mortality rate will reduce from 1.42% at present to 1.33% on October 23,” he said.

Dr T Jacob John, virologist and former professor at the Christian Medical College, Vellore, concurred that the epidemics are coming down in many of the previously worst infected states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Tamil Nadu and even Uttar Pradesh, which he described as “unbelievable”.

“I don’t know what is driving the rise in numbers in Karnataka, but to compare its epidemic with that of Kerala or Tamil Nadu would be like comparing apples and oranges. There is a diverse kaleidoscope of factors which dictate how the epidemic progresses in each state, district or locality, such as prevention measures, testing and surveillance,” he said.

Meantime, the short-term predictive analysis indicates that Maharashtra will experience a 17% reduction in active cases over the next two weeks, along with an increased recovery rate, from 78% to 83%. “Peaking is a function of how many active cases there are,” Dr Sivakumar said.

Andhra Pradesh will see 40% fewer active cases in a fortnight, coupled with a 94% recovery rate. In Tamil Nadu, the decline will be slightly smaller, at 3%. Uttar Pradesh, which has nine districts where mortality rates are 25% above the national average, is expected to see a “38% drop in active cases.