Karnataka headed towards bipolarity in elections

While the seat share of different political parties in the 2023 Assembly polls tells the tale of a sweeping victory for Congress with 135 seats, the vote share presents a nuance that one cannot ignore.

The BJP, which has gained a 36 per cent vote share - more or less similar to its share in the 2018 election - has increased its presence in certain pockets of the state.

With the JD(S) further decimated, all roads are headed towards bipolarity in Karnataka with a straight fight between Congress and the BJP in the foreseeable future.

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A recent tweet by Amit Malviya, head of the BJP’s IT cell, sums up the vote share conundrum for the saffron party: “In the Old Mysore region, JD(S)’ vote share dropped 9% from 40 to 31%, the Congress gained 6% (up from 35 to 41%) and BJP 4% (now at 22% from 18 earlier)...The BJP, on the other hand, gained 6% vote share in Bengaluru, but was down 4% in Mumbai-Karnataka region. In all these regional variations, the BJP held on to its 36% vote share, but still went down 39 seats…”

In the Old Mysore region, known to be the JD(S) bastion, Congress and the BJP have eaten into the regional party’s vote share.

Speaking to DH, political analyst D Umapathy said, “The answer to the BJP’s sustained vote share in the state largely lies in how the votes have transferred to the party from the JD(S) belt.”

He pointed out that the BJP had increased its organisational effort here, laying the ground work for the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2028 Assembly polls.

Meanwhile, the Congress which always faced a problem of having a higher vote share without it converting into higher number of seats, has overcome that hurdle this time. Congress leader Rahman Khan attributed it to the Congress’ guarantees ahead of the polls.

“The poor people were feeling the burden of price rise. The Congress showed them hope with its guarantees. This made a difference.”

Congress leaders are conscious of what a two-way fight means. “The electoral battle in Karnataka will get tougher henceforth,” one senior leader said, adding that Congress must show good performance in the next 10 months.