Covid-19 fourth wave may peak after June: K Sudhakar

First dose vaccination coverage in Karnataka is about 105%, while it is more than 98% for the second dose

Experts have predicted that the Covid-19 fourth wave may peak after June and have its effects till October, Karnataka Health Minister K Sudhakar said on Tuesday as he stressed learning to live with the virus by taking precautionary measures like vaccination and wearing masks.

He said the prevalent variants of the virus are said to be Omicron's sublineages and an official report in this regard is likely in a couple of days. "IIT Kanpur has been sharing data and reports. According to a report shared by them it (the fourth wave) is likely to start from June end, but things have started a month ahead. According to them it is likely to peak after June and may go one till September and October," Sudhakar said.

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Speaking to reporters here, he said the report submitted by them about the last three waves was by and largely accurate, and the current report too is based on scientific data and may turn out to be accurate. "It is two years since Covid began and we have complete information regarding it. We will also have to lead our lives. We are not in a position to say that Covid will completely vanish from the world, so we have to learn to live with it by following measures like vaccination, wearing masks and maintaining social distance. We have done it in the past too," he added.

Asked whether the state is amidst the fourth wave of Covid, the Minister said, the cases are very less compared to other states, so it will be inappropriate to say that as of now.

Should one trust this model? No, says the researcher

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However, the IIT Kanpur model has been questioned by researchers for various reasons. Gautam Menon, Professor of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University, Haryana, whose research centres on modelling infectious diseases, on March 2 tweeted, "A recent paper by applied mathematicians from IIT Kanpur has led to some interest among news organisations and the public for its prediction of the fourth wave of Covid-19 starting June 22, 2022, reaching a peak on August 23 and ending on October 24. The precision of these claims should raise some questions immediately. No epidemiologist with any experience would dare to make a claim that a wave is expected to start 'on X day', four months into the future."

"The methods used are purely statistical. The available data is fit using a sum of simple Gaussian functions, using machine learning methods. The data ‘learnt from’, a requirement here for the methods to work is from Zimbabwe, which had four Covid-19 waves. Why Zimbabwe? Because Zimbabwe and India have 'maximum visible similarities in the shape of the Covid waves' This is not a particularly scientific way to proceed. Why should Zimbabwe and India be different? Zimbabwe, as of a few days ago, had managed to vaccinate 40% of its eligible population, mainly with the Chinese vaccine Sinopharm. The analogous number for India is 75% or more," Menon argued.

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"The Omicron wave was relatively mild. Most Indians had been exposed to the virus in the preceding two waves, in particular the Delta wave. Along with that, vaccinations added a further level of protection, contributing to what is called hybrid immunity. None of this is accounted for in the model. That’s just one part of it. The median age in Zimbabwe is close to 19. For India, it is close to 30. The impact of Covid-19 in every respect - cases, ICU requirements, deaths - are primarily driven by age," the professor said.

"Should one trust this model at all? The answer, simply, is no. Epidemiology is not an exact science in the sense that Physics is or Chemistry. The waves of Covid-19 in India have been driven by variants: the original strain and its major descendants, Delta and Omicron. None of these could have been anticipated in advance. No one is able to do that. Modelling can provide helpful estimates but must rely on accurate inputs for their predictions to be trustable. They are more useful for broad policy than highly specific predictions of numbers," he added.

"One can hope for the following: Even if antibodies wave, the fact of a number of exposures to different variants as well as vaccinations should protect against any new variant through hybrid immunity. That is as much as we can hope. We cannot predict the appearance of new variants, nor can we say with any certainty that a peak is or is not due. And no one can. So the worry over this ‘prediction’ is overblown. No mathematical model is - or can be - as prescient as this would require. Nothing to see here, folks. Move on," Menon tweeted.

Union Health Ministry acknowledges criticism

The following day, in a union health ministry press conference, on March 3, Vinod Paul, the head of the Covid Task Force and NITI Aayog member, acknowledged this criticism and said, "Experts Manindra Agarwal and Gautam Menon have said they do not believe the IIT Kanpur prediction of the fourth wave", in response to a question from a reporter on what the government makes of this prediction.

Free precaution dose for all?

Queried whether precautionary doses will be administered freely to all, like the first and second dose vaccination, Sudhakar said, "let's see what discussion takes place during the Prime Minister's meeting tomorrow....we will have to analyse whether one dose vaccination has to be administered per year. The Centre and the state will take a decision keeping in mind all aspects."

First dose vaccination coverage in Karnataka is about 105 per cent, while it is more than 98 per cent for the second dose, which means 10-12 lakh people are yet to take the second dose. About 55 per cent of people have taken the precautionary dose that is being administered freely to those above 60 years of age. Sudhakar urged parents to get their children above 12-years of age inoculated on priority, which is being administered by the government free of cost.

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