Experts fear Delta Covid-19 variant could be evolving to beat vaccines

As of August 26, Karnataka had recorded 14,421 breakthrough infections

There may not be any new variants of the novel coronavirus at the moment, but experts are worried as evidence building from breakthrough infections point to the virus potentially acquiring vaccine evasion abilities.

This comes at a time when projections made on behalf of the state Genomic Surveillance Committee show that there is a possibility that Covid-19 cases could increase from the third week of October.

“At the moment, we have not found any new variants of the novel coronavirus. The major lineages in Karnataka continue to be AY.4 and AY.12 Delta variants. The good news is that vaccinations are largely keeping these under check. However, there is now concern that breakthrough infections being recorded will hasten the emergence of a new variant that could have the means to evade a vaccine response in the body,” explained Dr Vishal Rao, member of the state’s Genomic Surveillance Committee.

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As of August 26, the state had recorded 14,421 breakthrough infections. The overall number has now risen to about 15,000, said Dr Thrilok Chandra, Commissioner of Health.

Dr Rao added that the Delta already has the potential for escape and that the committee is looking closely for mutations in the spike protein of the virus. “There is evidence that the spike proteins are changing,” he said.

Changes to the spike protein are closely monitored worldwide as they can make the virus more infectious.

While Dr Thrilok Chandra said that some breakthrough cases are already subject to genome sequencing, the committee is said to have asked for a ramping up of the number of sequences being done. In total, 500 samples are being sequenced per week at present, including from non-breakthrough cases.

Also Read | Massive numbers of new Covid–19 infections, not vaccines, are the main driver of new coronavirus variants

“We have had a random approach to genome sequencing because for the most part, Delta is still manageable. Now there is a need to look at samples from breakthrough cases because the guard of the public is down at present and there is an opportunity for new variants or sub-lineages to emerge,” Dr Rao said.

Potential case increase

Reduced public vigilance could also prompt a rise in cases, which has been predicted using Artificial Intelligence (AI) by a private firm supplying trend information to the committee.

“We see a potential increase in caseload in the third week,” said Sri Yilapavanam, co-founder of city-based private firm BlockAppsAI Pvt Ltd.

Yilapavanam explained that this conclusion was arrived at by factoring in the possible increase in the value of contact parameter. “This system of equations is similar to the famed SUTRA model, but our model considers several other compartments and effects of vaccination,” he said.

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