Karnataka may see 3.5 lakh active cases during peak, says SBI report

Karnataka will have over 3.5 lakh active cases as compared to the current 3 lakh when it hits the second peak – next only to Maharashtra.

According to a report of the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department, Maharashtra is estimated to have 9.5 lakh active cases at the time of second peak from its current level of 6.7 lakh, contributing to around 26 per cent in total active cases.

“Sixteen major states will account for 95.7 per cent of total active cases estimated for the country. Various states, on an average, are expected to reach their peak around the national peak date, indicating that the worst may be over by 3rd week of May,” according to the report authored by Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

The report titled – “The power of vaccination stays safe: Don’t confuse between probability & possibility of getting infected” – deals with finer aspects of the ongoing second wave.

The report points out that the 7-Day Moving Average of daily tests and daily new cases in India are both increasing at a rapid pace. However, from late-December 2020 to mid-February 2021, our daily new cases reduced significantly but at the same time daily tests also declined.

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Thus it should not be the case that India becomes complacent again and reduces tests just to show a lower infection rate as this could lead to widespread increase in infection as is happening in the current wave.

On the belief that elections and/or public congregations are one of the major factors behind the surging cases in election states, the report points out that, in contrast, in some states like Maharashtra, Delhi and Chhattisgarh, even as mobility has declined significantly, cases have increased and only recently have shown some stabilisation, but no meaningful decline. Although Maharashtra is in lockdown-mode for the last three weeks, the 7-Day Moving Average of daily cases remains at 60,000.

“This indicates the transmission may not possibly be only through humans; it is airborne. This makes a strong case of mass sanitization of public places for disinfection,” it states.

Cumulative deaths (from Mumbai) below 50 years is quite high at 13.6 per cent. Between April 12 and April 25, this has increased marginally to 13.8 per cent.

“Is this a clear sign that the mutant is actually having a significant impact on India’s Covid cases and in that class of population which has not been vaccinated till date?” it asks.