Back to the Trumpian world

The people of the United States voted Donald Trump back to the White House with a thumping majority. Republican leads in the Congress and Senate would strengthen his position.  While US voters voted on domestic issues rather than foreign policy, Trump’s return will impact US engagement with the rest of the world.

Trump may be a known entity, but he’s capable of being both unpredictable and disruptive.  His policy framework will be based on his personality, his worldview and the advisers he appoints to key positions. It is likely that hard-liners will have an upper hand in decision making circles, while moderates and the deep state may have to take the back seat.

His background in business and his first term as president reinforced his belief that disruptive change is often necessary, transactional approach and deal-making provide a way forward, and personal engagement builds relationships. 

Foreign policy articulation

For Trump, foreign policy will be guided by domestic considerations of economic growth, employment, competitiveness, technology development and US role on global issues.  He has proposed a tough line on tariffs, strict immigration, strong alliances, conflict resolution and review of multilateral commitments. His transactional approach caused concern amongst many old allies, but many others see this as an opportunity.  Trump’s foreign policy is likely to have profound influence on the new global order and seeks to enable the US economic and strategic resurgence to be the unquestioned leader of the global community.

Taming the dragon

Dealing with China will probably be Trump’s most challenging task.  During his first term, Trump had called out China as the principal adversary. He took steps to deal with economic issues such as lack of market access and unfair trade practices. On the strategic front, he initiated measures for denial of critical technologies and revival of the Indo Pacific and Quad to deal with China's hegemonic tendencies.  The Biden administration had largely followed the Trump approach on China.

This situation has become more complicated as China, although currently in economic distress, has grown in economic and technological terms, modernised its armed forces and expanded its leverage across the world, even filling the vacuum that US withdrawal had created. China also built capacity for retaliation. Trump’s threat of imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese exports to the US could prompt a tariff war that adds inflationary pressure on the US economy. Trump’s support on the Philippines issue and ambiguity on Taiwan could be tested by China in future. Trump is likely to strengthen Indo Pacific security cooperation under Quad and collaboration with other regional players, especially ASEAN.

Strategic ambiguity on geopolitical issues and possibility of hard landing with economic cost could be the drivers for a deal for both Trump and Xi. Alternatively, the two sides could head towards a prolonged period of competition and a spiral of uncertainty.

New love in Europe

European leaders are probably in a huddle about possible disruptions following the return of Trump. Their extreme concerns pertain to US commitment to the trans-Atlantic partnership, survival of NATO and support for the Ukraine war. Trump values the European partnership but wants the partners to share the burden of security. He wants the EU to be part of the package of universal tariffs to revive the US economy, which fragile European economies facing slowdown are worried about.

Trump has publicly called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to conclude a deal with Russia and stop the war. This would bring stability to the region but might mean compromise on territory to the Russians. The promise of an end to the war in Europe and economic deals could be used to seek German and French support. NATO may suffer a setback as a consequence. Russia’s position as the second most prominent threat, after China, could open possibilities for new business and strategic engagement.

New Abraham Accord in Middle East

Unlike other conflict theatres, Trump’s support for Israel is expected to be unwavering, though not open-ended. Trump’s understanding with Gulf states had fashioned the Abraham Accord to promote peace and stability, creating opportunity for business and prosperity. Even Saudi Arabia was on the cusp of joining the initiative.

The ongoing Israel-Palestine war impacted Trump’s plans and efforts.  The war has continued for long with humanitarian consequences and expansion to new theatres, including Iran. While Trump may have no affection for Iran, he realises Gulf Arabs have no appetite for an escalation and inflammatory possibilities of such a conflict upset prospects for stability. This might be the opportunity for Trump to play a role in helping Netanyahu declare victory such that peace, security and stability can have a chance.

Namaste Trump

 The return of Trump will help further consolidate our strategic partnership with the US.  Built on shared objectives and bi-partisan support, our relations have a strong institutional architecture and growing exchanges in diverse fields. 

Economic engagement is a driving force with growing two-way trade and investment. Concerns about the impact of rising tariffs are justified, but if there is a differential with the China tariff, it could even be to our advantage.  A deal on cross investments with Indian participation in the US economy and likewise from the US side in India will strengthen both volume and quality of our economic engagement.  On immigration, there is likelihood of some impact but the appreciation that Trump has for professional Indians and their work culture and contribution to the US economy could be the basis for an India-preference for entry to the US.

Perhaps the most exciting cooperation is in defence and critical technology, which elevates our relations to a strategic dimension.  Acquisitions of military hardware, production of defence platforms, provision of logistics facilities and exercises for interoperability of forces add to our capabilities and operations in the Indo Pacific region.  We anticipate growing engagement in the Indo Pacific and Quad.

India's immediate neighbourhood had a mixed experience of US influence. In line with Trump’s approach towards a larger role for regional powers, consultations for harmonising of overall interests should be explored. 

There is a perception that US interest in India stems largely from the countervailing force it provides in containing China. India's growing stature as a major economy that contributes to global development and peace and security and also in line with a deeper understanding of partnerships rather than insistence on alliances needs further elaboration in US policy circles.

The idea of America First will provide justification for many of the changes Trump wishes to bring to take the US to unchallenged global leadership. For India, this may be the moment to strike a deal to consolidate our most consequential strategic partnership with a due role in the emerging global order.

Sanjay Bhattacharyya: The writer is a former diplomat and currently Professor of Diplomatic Practice at Jindal Global University