Biden and Xi set to navigate complex relations in upcoming meeting

The eagerly awaited meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, is set to take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leadership Summit in San Francisco in the third week of November. The White House has officially confirmed this meeting, and it has generated significant interest given the ongoing complexities in US-China relations.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre noted during a recent press briefing, "The president is looking forward to it. And that should answer your question." This meeting comes at a time when India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been invited to the APEC Leadership Summit by President Biden, and it is expected that India will be represented by a Cabinet-level minister.

While the details of the meeting are yet to be disclosed, Jean-Pierre emphasized the constructive nature of the gathering. She highlighted that the policy of the Biden Administration regarding how to proceed with China remains focused on managing intense competition through intense diplomacy.

In recent months, there have been indications of the US-China relationship stabilizing on the surface. Several factors contribute to this apparent flattening of the trajectory of relations. First, there is alignment in expectations, with neither Washington nor Beijing expecting immediate breakthroughs or dramatic improvements in relations. Second, leaders on both sides see the value in maintaining current tension levels. And third, intensive consultations between advisors to Biden and Xi have paved the way for this crucial meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit.

While the resumption of high-level engagement between the US and China has restored certain diplomatic habits that once supported stability, including a commitment to "no surprises," there are still underlying tensions that remain unaddressed. Increased communication has yet to yield convergence on key issues, and the relationship is currently characterized by communication without significant concessions from either side.

This meeting provides both leaders with an opportunity to demonstrate statesmanship at a time of heightened volatility in the international system. While it is unclear whether they will be able to achieve substantial diplomatic breakthroughs, there is an opportunity for both sides to make progress by reviving the practice of exchanging form for substance.

Important for China

From China's perspective, the optics of the meeting are crucial. Chinese officials aim to project an image to their domestic audience that Xi is being treated with respect by Biden, emphasizing the amicable nature of their interactions. They may achieve this by showcasing the two leaders engaging on a personal level, moving beyond formalities like the customary handshake and involving activities like a walk, a shared meal, or one-on-one discussions.

While Xi holds a rather pessimistic view of US intentions toward China, he sees value in projecting his capacity to stabilize relations, particularly when facing domestic challenges like a softening economy and strained foreign relations. The image of Xi receiving more than a standard meeting with Biden holds added value, demonstrating his ability to recalibrate relations with the United States, which is essential for managing China's relationships with US allies in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere.

Given the upcoming election in Taiwan in January 2024, China may be seeking to influence the election's outcome in its favour. Xi may seek assurance from Biden that the US does not favour any candidate or political party in Taiwan and does not support Taiwan's independence. In response, Biden is likely to reiterate the US's longstanding policy of opposing Taiwan independence and any unilateral changes to the Taiwan Strait's status quo, as well as opposing outside interference in Taiwan's electoral process.

US expectations

The US aims to make concrete progress on various priorities during the meeting. Foremost among these is reducing the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China, which has resulted in fentanyl-related deaths becoming a significant issue for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. It is expected that Biden will engage with Xi on this issue, seeking to halt the chemical flows that are contributing to this crisis.

Both the US and China are prominent players in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). They will look to establish a channel for exchanging views on AI governance and safety, recognizing the mutual benefits of such collaboration. Additionally, they will explore ways to enhance people-to-people contact by simplifying travel procedures, expanding flight routes, and promoting exchanges in various fields.

Both nations possess unique capabilities to address humanitarian crises and global challenges. They will seek to coordinate their responses to ongoing conflicts and crises, including providing humanitarian assistance and facilitating the movement of essential goods in conflict zones.

In addition to addressing these specific issues, the meeting will provide an opportunity for both leaders to chart a course for their bilateral relationship in the year ahead, taking into consideration the US presidential election in 2024 and the importance of ensuring that their advisers understand their roles in managing relations.

While most Americans want a strong and smart approach to China, they want to avoid a military conflict. So, talking with China is the right thing to do for the Biden Administration. Making relations with China stable while standing up for US interests and values will have wide support in the US. It will also help Xi show that he's making progress with the US.

The meeting in San Francisco will show how the two leaders can handle important issues. The world will watch them to see if they can find ways to work together for the benefit of both countries and the world, especially given the rising political conflicts across the world.

(With inputs from agencies)