China’s demographic concerns heighten as population declined by 2.08 million in 2023

Beijing: China's population dipped for a second consecutive year as the overall numbers fell by 2.08 million last year to 1.4097 billion as India overtook China to become the most populous country in the world in 2023, according to the annual official data released on Wednesday.

China’s population reported its first decline in six decades in 2022 after the birth rate hit a new low resulting in decades of the one-child policy pursued vigorously by the ruling Communist Party of China to control the population growth with experts predicting a steeper decline in the coming years in the world's second-largest economy.

According to the United Nations Population Fund data, India surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation with 142.86 crore people last year.

Last year 9.02 million babies were born in China, down by 5.6 per cent from 9.56 million in 2022 amid the plummeting interest in couples having children, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The falling number of new babies resulted in the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people, compared with 6.77 in 2022.

China implemented a third-child policy in May of 2021 and rolled out a series of stimulus measures to boost population growth.

Several cities, provinces and regions across the country have rolled out incentive policies such as issuing subsidies to families with a second or third child.

China’s population growth has been slowing since 2016 as the high cost of raising children, a greater pursuit of individualism and a diversified lifestyle dampen enthusiasm to start a family.

The country’s zero-Covid policies, implemented between 2020 and late 2022, are also perceived to have contributed to the slide.

Last year, 11.1 million people also died, pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported.

Researchers warned that the Chinese economy which in the past significantly benefited from a demographic dividend, will have to tackle challenges including fewer working-age people, weaker spending power and a strained social security system as its population ages further.

China’s overall population is set to see a steeper decline in the coming years, said Professor Peng Xizhe from the Centre for Population and Development Policy Studies at Fudan University.

It’s almost certain that the population will go on with negative growth, Peng told the Post.

As the cloud of the coronavirus pandemic wanes, and pronatalist policies “more or less make some difference”, the number of newborns per year might rebound a little but is unlikely to exceed 10 million, he said.

“A rise in deaths related to COVID-19 may have occurred in early 2023 … Looking ahead, as the population ages, annual deaths will continue growing in the future, surpassing 10 million people each year,” Peng said.

“Therefore, with deaths outnumbering births, it’s almost certain that the population will go on with negative growth,” according to Peng.

He Dan, the Director of China Population and Development Research Centre said most factors that result in the decline in women choosing to have children or get married can be adjusted through the implementation of supportive policies.

"Though cities have released a slew of supportive policies to support childbearing women to give birth, the public's expectation is still not being met," He Dan told state-run Global Times tabloid.

He proposed a birth guarantee system to provide subsidies to individuals who care for newborns, aiming to encourage intergenerational support and help between family members and strengthen training and guidance on scientific parenting.

He also said the establishment of an 'entire lifecycle of family services support system' will be able to alleviate anxiety and stress related to childbirth and provide comprehensive support for reproductive health services, marriage and relationship services, and childcare services, among others.