China's progress on renewables to meet climate goals undermined by coal expansion

Singapore: Fast growth in China's renewable energy sector to meet climate goals is being undermined by continued coal capacity expansion and a rapid rise in energy consumption, a report said on Monday.

China's energy bureau said last week that total installed solar power capacity hit 536 gigawatts (GW) in October, up 47 per cent from a year earlier, with wind capacity also rising 15.6 per cent to 404GW.

If this year's rate of renewables expansion is maintained, China is on track to bring emissions to a peak and start reducing them in coming years, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBF) said in their annual progress report on China's climate actions.

However, the country must redouble efforts on energy efficiency and transform its growth model to tackle rising energy consumption, which is still running ahead of "1.5 degree scenarios", the report said.

China's efforts are "possibly the single most important factor in the global fight against climate change," according to CREA-HBF.

China's carbon dioxide emissions, by far the highest in the world, rebounded in 2023 as a result of low hydropower output and the post-Covid revival of the country's economy, the report said.

Demand for energy and materials from the rapid expansion of clean energy and electric vehicle manufacturing also offset the decline in emissions brought about by a slump in real estate, which has restrained cement and steel production, it added.

China is "badly off track" when it comes to controlling coal-fired capacity and also meeting energy intensity targets for 2025, the report said.

It has granted permits for 152GW of new coal power since the start of 2022, starting construction on 92GW, with total capacity on track to rise 23 per cent by 2030.

"It is entirely possible for emissions to fall while capacity increases, but the buildup of new coal power plants makes emissions peaking economically and politically more challenging to implement," the report said.