Explained | What's going on in Myanmar and why it matters to India

The influx of refugees from Myanmar into Mizoram, along with close ethnic ties between the Chin ethnic group and the Kukis in Manipur, raises concerns about tensions spilling over into India's northeast. Since the 2020 coup, more than 30,000 Myanmar nationals, including over 40 ousted federal and state lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD), have sought shelter in Mizoram. Over 2,000 Myanmar nationals have sought refuge in the Champhai district alone.

Myanmar's military government faces a significant challenge following a coordinated offensive by three ethnic minority forces known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. This offensive, named 'Operation 1027', began in late October, initially targeting junta-controlled areas on the China border in northern Shan State. The alliance consists of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta'ang National Liberation Army. The military has lost control of several towns and over 100 security outposts, leading to the declaration of martial law in eight townships near the Chinese border.

Simultaneously, the Arakan Army launched attacks in Rakhine state despite a yearlong ceasefire. Tanks have been reported on the streets of Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine, following the fighting in the western state. The junta has imposed a curfew, indicating a volatile security situation. Rakhine, formerly known as Arakan, witnessed a brutal military counterinsurgency operation in 2017, resulting in the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims.

Anti-junta fighters from the Chin state are also attempting to control part of Myanmar's border with India. The Chin National Front (CNF) successfully took over two military outposts along the border, leading to 42 Myanmar soldiers illegally crossing into India, where they were caught by security forces in Mizoram.

The Myanmar military is already grappling with a nationwide uprising by the People's Defense Force, a pro-democracy resistance organisation. Acting president Myint Swe expressed concerns about Myanmar being in critical condition, risking a split if the military fails to manage the ongoing fighting.

The influx of refugees from Myanmar into Mizoram, along with close ethnic ties between the Chin ethnic group and the Kukis in Manipur, raises concerns about tensions spilling over into India's northeast. Meitei militant groups from Manipur operating in Myanmar's Sagaing Region further complicate the situation and may have implications for Manipur.

Since the 2020 coup, more than 30,000 Myanmar nationals, including over 40 ousted federal and state lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD), have sought shelter in Mizoram. Over 2,000 Myanmar nationals have sought refuge in the Champhai district alone. The refugees, supported by churches and NGOs, have received assistance from the state government, with Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga expressing solidarity and defying the central government's directive to push back the refugees due to shared ethnic ties and the humanitarian crisis.

(With agency inputs from DHNS and Reuters)