For Ukraine, Trump victory signals a shift. To what, is unclear

Kyiv: With Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Ukrainians now face an all-but-certain American policy shift in the midst of a war that is turning against them. Russia has made some of the swiftest territorial advances in recent months, and diplomatic efforts are underway by multiple countries to find a negotiated settlement.

Trump has been critical of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, and promised that he could end the war in one day -- without saying how. It is unclear how any initiative by Trump would dovetail with those talks, diplomats said in interviews in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, before the election. The diplomats requested anonymity to discuss the efforts.

As Trump racked up the electoral votes needed to win, the war was still raging in Ukraine. Air alarms sounded in Kyiv, and Ukraine's general staff headquarters reported that Russia had launched 71 airstrikes by 10 p.m. Tuesday.

It is a conflict in which no U.S. soldiers are fighting but where U.S. policy holds an outsize influence. The United States is Ukraine's single most important benefactor for military and financial support, though taken together the countries of the European Union provide more.

Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet, wrote in a commentary on the U.S. election that the war in Ukraine was less central to U.S. politics than the wars in Vietnam or Korea had been. There, "American boys fought and died," the site noted.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine wasted no time in offering his congratulations, writing that he appreciated "President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs."

"This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer," he wrote. "I am hopeful that we will put it into action together."

After assuming the presidency, Trump will inherit the United States' role as armorer and financier in the war against Russia. He has spoken warmly and admiringly of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, while castigating Zelenskyy. And Trump's pledge to end the war in a day has raised concerns in Kyiv that he would press a peace settlement on unfavorable terms to Ukraine.

"We'll see, but I am very skeptical that the war will end quickly, in 24 hours, as Trump promised," a former economy minister, Tymofiy Mylovanov, wrote on Facebook. Mylovanov noted, however, that Ukrainian government bonds were expected to rise in anticipation of a negotiated settlement.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian soldiers viewed the election result as yet another challenge in an increasingly difficult situation. Oksana Vedmid, 32, a private, was in a bunker with a drone unit in eastern Ukraine early Wednesday outside the city of Chasiv Yar, watching for any movement of Russian forces while also checking in on the latest election news.

"It feels like a small loss of hope for better support in our difficult struggle, knowing his stance and sympathy toward our enemies," she said by telephone, referring to Trump. "At the same time, I understand that the situation has become so tough recently that even the aid we've received hasn't been enough to improve our position."

Trends on the battlefield have been bleak for months and have grown more worrying for Ukraine in recent days.

Russian advances in the eastern Donbas region, creeping at first, began to accelerate in August and have picked up since. Ukraine, short of soldiers, has resorted to shifting troops between hot spots on the front to hold the line. Early signs of an unraveling are emerging in an army that, despite the odds, had largely held off a much bigger and better-armed adversary.

The shuffle of soldiers has opened other sectors to attack. As positions fail or are at risk, soldiers are rushed from elsewhere to reinforce the lines, only for Russia to attack or menace the vacated sites.

Mobilization in Ukraine, which picked up over the summer with men being pulled from rock concerts or out of cars at roadblocks, has tapered amid deep reluctance to fight in the trenches, military analysts say. Desertion is a mounting problem. From January to September, Ukrainian prosecutors recorded about 51,000 cases of soldiers being away without leave.

Some of the army's best troops were committed in August to an attack into the Kursk region of Russia in the hopes of diverting Moscow's soldiers. But Ukraine has since lost about 40% of the territory it occupied there, and Moscow did not redeploy troops from the Donbas.

Russia has also honed its tactics for a grinding, methodical advance pushing through Ukrainian lines with infantry attacks. Battlefield maps in recent weeks have shown multiple, horseshoe-shape curves along the front as Russia sets up its troops to encircle Ukrainian positions.

Another risk looms as North Korean soldiers enter the war to aid Moscow's efforts. Those soldiers have now joined the fight, according to U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence agencies, raising the specter of a surge in soldiers on the Russian side, though the numbers now deployed are not considered decisive.

Zelenskyy said Monday that 11,000 North Koreans were already in the Kursk region of Russia.

The wobbly military picture for Ukraine clouds the prospects for a negotiated settlement. Trump has not said on what terms he would negotiate a halt in hostilities.

Delicate, multiparty talks are already underway and have gained some traction in recent months. It is unclear how a role for Trump in mediating would combine with those efforts, the diplomats involved in the talks say.

Short of an overall cease-fire, Zelenskyy has nodded in recent comments to the prospect of side deals to tackle specific issues, like a moratorium by both militaries on strikes on energy infrastructure and an agreement to safeguard commercial shipping in the Black Sea. Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian electrical infrastructure, and Ukraine has been striking at Russian oil refineries with a fleet of domestically produced, long-range drones.

Ukraine has in recent weeks also softened its stance toward a Brazilian and Chinese plan that Zelenskyy had initially dismissed as serving Russia's interests.

A so-far-quiet diplomatic effort is underway to align that plan with Ukraine's own 10-point proposal for negotiations, the officials familiar with the talks said. In the most recent movement on Ukraine's plan, Canada last week hosted a conference on prisoner exchanges and on returning Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, one of the points in Ukraine's plan.

In the months before the U.S. election, Zelenskyy had pushed for a renewed commitment from the United States to provide weaponry that might shift the momentum on the front and for an invitation to join NATO. He described the strategy, which he called a victory plan, as a peace-through-strength initiative. President Joe Biden did not endorse it, and it received a lukewarm response from Ukraine's allies.

Frustration with the United States has run deep among military units and in Kyiv over slow deliveries of arms and restrictions prohibiting their use on targets inside Russia, other than along a narrow belt on the border. The current policies have led only to a losing situation on the front, according to former Ukrainian officials, military analysts and diplomats.

Lt. Pavlo Velychko, reached by phone after he returned from an overnight patrol, said the election result could prompt Europe take a larger role in defending its eastern borders and Ukraine.

"We should not hope for a miracle from across the ocean," he said. "Europe is awakening. That will be a necessary prerequisite for successfully resisting the imperial encroachment of the Russians."