US officials estimate that Iran could be within weeks of possessing enough homespun nuclear material for a nuclear bomb, although they believe constructing a usable device could take six months or more.
“I think it’s obvious that the decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal, which Iran was complying with, both removed the guardrails on Iran’s nuclear program and removed any incentive for Iran to move in any direction other than a more confrontational, harder line,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser in the Obama administration who played a major role in promoting the agreement.
Rhodes said it was obvious that Hamas bears primary responsibility for the current Middle East crisis because it launched the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. But he added that the trajectory of US-Iran relations after the failure of the nuclear agreement meant “that Iran has no opening for diplomacy with the United States. That leaves you with no alternative but conflict.”
He noted that the United States tried without success to revive the deal but criticized the Biden administration for not pushing earlier and harder.
A Western official who played a role in the negotiations said that had Iran been more successfully integrated into the global economy over the past decade, it might have tried to prevent Hamas, which it supports, from striking out at Israel. Failing that, Iranian leaders might have done more to de-escalate tensions with Israel in recent months, the official said.
But many conservatives make no apology for Trump’s exit from the agreement, which they argue was misguided from the start. They say it provided Iran with a cash infusion to fund regional terrorism and that its temporary restrictions allowed Iran to play for time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who made similar arguments, praised Trump’s decision to exit as “a historic move.”
This week, some conservatives also noted that the deal did not include meaningful limits on Iran’s development of the sort of missiles fired on Israel last week.
President Barack Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden designed the deal “knowing that Iran was ramping up ballistic-missile development,” but, in their focus on Iran’s nuclear activity, did not prevent it, conservative legal analyst Andrew McCarthy wrote for National Review last week. He said Iran had proceeded to give those missiles to its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and others in Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Obama officials have argued that they got the best deal available and that Iran would not have agreed to both nuclear and missile limits. Nor did Trump’s strategy of sanctions-based “maximum pressure” against Iran succeed in stopping its missile program.
Obama said his goal was to find an alternative to conflict. At the time, Israeli leaders — including Netanyahu, then serving an earlier term as prime minister — were warning that their country might launch airstrikes to take out Iranian nuclear facilities.
In 2013, Obama responded to Iran’s election of a moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, by initiating talks with Iran to impose limits on its nuclear program. In return, Iran would get relief from harsh American and European sanctions on its economy.
The deal was never meant to be a cure-all. Obama insisted its purpose was to restrict Iran’s nuclear research and development to delay its ability to build a nuclear bomb by at least a decade, and nothing more than that.
But for many supporters of the agreement, the nuclear deal offered something more exciting: a possibility that Iran and the West might begin moving past decades of hostility to peacefully coexist and perhaps even work together.
Some, including the nuclear deal’s chief American negotiator, Secretary of State John Kerry, hoped the deal would empower Iran’s political moderates and liberalize Iran by opening up its economy to greater Western investment and influence. The Islamic radicals who came to power in the 1979 revolution would be ousted not by military force, the thinking went, but by putting an iPhone into every Iranian hand.
But Republicans in Washington insisted that the deal should be tougher and that Iran could not be trusted to comply anyway.
In May 2018, Trump announced that the United States would no longer abide by the agreement, ignoring the advice of many of his top national security officials and the fact that international monitors had found that Iran was in compliance with its terms. He then imposed a slew of new economic sanctions on Iran.
Trump’s decision enraged Iranian leaders, including conservatives who said it proved their longtime warnings that the United States and its allies were the untrustworthy ones. Iran began to accelerate its nuclear program, increasing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and moving steadily closer to bomb-making potential. In its next presidential election, Iran installed Ebrahim Raisi, a far more combative successor to Rouhani.
Iran also continued to support proxy groups throughout the Middle East.
Although the Trump administration insisted that Iran used billions of dollars in assets unfrozen by the nuclear deal to invest in those groups, Trump’s policy had no discernible effect on Iran’s support for its proxies either.