Israel-Hamas conflict adds to dangers for Ukraine’s war effort

By Natalia Drozdiak and Courtney McBride

Russia is set to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Israel’s requests for US military aid risk diverting weapons and focus from Ukraine while the rising price of oil bolsters Moscow’s economy.

US and NATO allies have rebuffed concerns about their ability to continue supporting Ukraine militarily in the aftermath of Gaza-based militant group Hamas’s attack on Israel, which already receives billions in aid from Washington every year

Yet there’s a clear understanding in the Kremlin that the war between Israel and Hamas will work to Russia’s favor, according to two people with knowledge of the situation, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. The conflict may, at the very least, work to distract US and European attention from the war in Ukraine, the people said, even while Russia has concerns about its escalation. 

President Vladimir Putin’s objectives “will be achieved faster” if a US focus on the Israel conflict results in the slowdown of arms deliveries to Kyiv, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday at a news conference, after talks with Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit. “But they will be achieved in any case.”

For the most part, there is no major overlap between Israel and Ukraine’s military asks, and Tel Aviv’s existing supplies are relatively robust in light of years of stockpiling, officials and experts say. Israel is seeking Iron Dome missiles, precision-guided munitions and artillery rounds from the US, according to a person familiar with the matter, as it readies its next response to Hamas’s attack. 

But the pressure on supplies could increase if Israel launches a ground war into the Gaza strip, as is expected.

“That’s when they’ll start using munitions in a big way — precision munitions — and they’ll probably use a lot of them,” said Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel who’s now an adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. While they already have big stocks, he said, “they may not have enough for a long campaign.”

Mass and rapid mobilization also means the Israeli military is stretched for equipment, leaving some troops with older items, Richard Hecht, a spokesman and lieutenant-colonel, told journalists on Tuesday.