Jerusalem: The day after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged some of the biggest salvos since the start of their 10-month cross-border battle, both appeared to have stepped back from the brink of a bigger confrontation. Israel's defense minister spoke Sunday of "the importance of avoiding regional escalation," while the leader of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, said "people can take a breath and relax."
But even if a wider Middle East war has been averted for now, analysts said, Israel's conflict with Hezbollah, along with the fighting with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, show every sign of continuing, their fundamental dynamics unchanged.
Israel and Hezbollah returned Monday to a low-level conflict with smaller strikes, albeit one that could escalate at any point into a bigger war that could draw in Iran, Hezbollah's benefactor. Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel and Lebanon remain displaced by the fighting. And Iran has yet to respond militarily to Israel's assassination of a Hamas leader last month in Tehran, Iran.
"Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were," said Shira Efron, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.
A truce in Lebanon is dependent on a truce in Gaza, which remains a distant prospect. Four days of meetings between Israeli officials and U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo concluded Sunday without a breakthrough, although negotiators said talks would continue.
Hezbollah has said it will continue its battle until Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. And its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech Sunday that the militia reserved the right to attack again to avenge Israel's killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.
"This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight," Efron said. "In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge."
The focus, for now, will return to the Gaza cease-fire talks, which appeared stuck despite a renewed push by the United States and optimistic commentary from Biden administration officials.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still opposed to clauses in the proposed truce agreement that would make it harder for Israel to resume battle after a weekslong pause, arguing that such a deal would allow Hamas to survive the war intact. Netanyahu's far-right coalition relies on lawmakers who have pledged to bring down his government if he agrees to such a deal, even as many Israelis publicly demand an agreement, saying it is the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.
Hamas, for its part, is determined to remain a force in postwar Gaza and has said it rejects any cease-fire that is temporary and does not ensure Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza. The group, along with Egypt, has pushed back strongly against Netanyahu's insistence that Israel retain a military presence in a narrow strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt, which Israel has said is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming through smuggling.
"Hamas is being asked to accept Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, entirely or partly," said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian research group in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
"Asking them to even consider such a condition is basically asking them to commit suicide, politically speaking," Dalalsha added. "This is something Hamas would never, ever agree to."