No 'major hurdle' left in holding polls after ex-PM Imran's arrest: Pak analyst

Imran Khan's conviction and his three-year jail term in a corruption case have cleared a 'major hurdle' for the ruling PML-N and the military establishment, who appear to be on the same page, to hold the elections, a leading political analyst said on Saturday.

Former Pakistan prime minister Khan, 70, was arrested from his Zaman Park home in Lahore on Saturday shortly after an Islamabad trial court found him guilty of “corrupt practices” in the Toshakhana corruption case and sentenced him to three-year imprisonment.

The case alleges that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief “deliberately concealed” details of the gifts he retained from the Toshakhana, a repository where presents handed to government officials from foreign officials are kept, during his time as the prime minister and proceeds from their reported sales.

From political analysts to politicians of the mainstream parties, there has been a discussion in Pakistan in recent weeks that the general elections which are due in October/November will only be held once Khan is sent to jail, making it easier for the military establishment to get desired results (in the polls) and install a set up of its choice.

Political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi told PTI that after the arrest of Khan, there seems to be no reason left to delay the polls.

'Both the ruling PMLN and the military establishment appear to be on the same page,' he said.

The elections may be delayed for a couple of months because of the census issue, he said, adding that otherwise no other 'major hurdle' is left.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently said that elections will be held under the digital census of 2023.

Senior PTI leader Mussarat Cheema said Khan was arrested to meet the demand of the PML-N, especially its chief organiser Maryam Nawaz who had set this condition for going into polls.

'Today, justice was slaughtered by disqualifying and convicting a national hero (Imran Khan) in a phoney case. This is what Maryam Nawaz has long been demanding - a level playing field to go into elections,' she said in a tweet.

A senior PML-N leader in Punjab told PTI that Khan's arrest has paved the way for general elections.

'There was an apprehension both in the establishment and PML-N that as long as Khan is a free man, it will not be easy to contain him in polls. Therefore, his arrest was a prerequisite to the polls...otherwise delay was imminent,' he said on the condition of anonymity.

PTI spokesman Zulfi Bokhari said the court verdict was a 'very dark and sad day' as Khan's legal team was not even allowed to present its arguments.

'Today. It wasn't a day of any decisions to be taken or verdict to be given by a court. Yet it did. Funny enough. It was the last day of this judge's pick of this judge before he went on his holiday leave,' he said.

He said Additional Judge Humayun Dilawar of the Islamabad-based district and sessions court found Khan guilty was specially bought into this case to basically convict former prime minister.

'This arrest obviously is going to be contested and again and appealed in the High Court and in the Supreme Court.,' he said.

'Why is Mr Khan's legal team not allowed to present his arguments? Why are they not allowed to defend the case? Why is Mr Khan being arrested without having a fair trial? Why is this being done just before elections? Caretaker government's about to come into a few days.

'That's in some way or the other trying to eliminate him from the political landscape of Pakistan. So that has now finally happened. They've convicted him. He's not allowed to contest, to be a part of politics for five years,' he said.

Bokhari said in 27 years of his political career Khan has only asked for supremacy of law and today, the only struggle that he is fighting for is free and fair elections.

'In Pakistan. He wants nothing else. But he wants Pakistan to remain a stable democratic state, which unfortunately right now, it's not looking so,' he added.

Addressing the media after the court ruling, Minister for Information Marriyum Aurangzeb said the detailed verdict has proved that Khan committed the offence of corruption by making and publishing false statements.

“He has been jailed for being dishonest and corrupt,” she said.

The minister said legal formalities and due procedure were followed and the decision of the court has nothing to do with politics or the upcoming election.

The trial court announced the verdict after at least 40 hearings, she said, adding that the whole investigation took almost 13 to 14 months.

Columnist Nadeem Farooq Paracha linked the dramatic rise and fall of Khan with his style of politics attached to the powerful military establishment.

'The so-called ‘Imran Khan Project’ has been system­atically dismantled by the same army institution that had first launched it with great fanfare in 2011,' he said.

He added the cricketer-turned-politician has been networking with former military personnel since the days when he formed a lobby with the former ISI chief Hamid Gul in 1994.

Khan then formed his own party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in 1996 but, till 2011, it remained a tiny outfit with a very small vote bank.

In 2011, the military establishment aided Khan in holding a massive public rally in Lahore that launched him as a potential third political force in Pakistan after the PML-N and the PPP. Currently, the PTI is the most popular party in the country.

Paracha said it was during Khan's 2014 sit-in against the PML-N regime that helped him fully mould his image as an 'incorruptible leader' with a vision and will to turn Pakistan into an Islamic welfare state.

In 2018, with the help of his friends in the military establishment, Khan managed to win a slight majority and stitch together a coalition government.

'It was an instant disaster. He wasn’t a politician. He was a handsome spiritual leader of a constituency that identified with him entirely on an emotional level. His numerous blunders finally saw the military distancing itself from him, especially when reports of mass-scale corruption by his government began to leak out.

'After his ouster in 2022, he did not retreat to lick his wounds and reassess his strategy. Instead, the slow-motion trainwreck that was his regime gained pace after his ouster, until crashing his party and his political career,' Paracha said.

The May 9 attacks on the military and state buildings by the PTI workers in reaction to their leader Khan's arrest is cited as a big blunder.

Widespread protests erupted across Pakistan after Khan was arrested outside a court in Islamabad by paramilitary Rangers in a corruption case on May 9. His party workers vandalised over 20 military installations and government buildings, including the Lahore Corps Commander House, Mianwali airbase and the ISI building in Faisalabad.

The Army headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi was also attacked by the mob for the first time.

Following the protests, police arrested over 10,000 PTI supporters inducing women under terrorism charges. Some of them are being tried under the tough Army Act.

Khan is facing more than 140 cases across the country and faces charges like terrorism, violence, blasphemy, corruption and murder.