Potential Israeli strike on Iran oil could trigger price surge, Barclays says

Barclays said it expects a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure to result in a sustained 1 million barrels per day of disruption in supplies that could drive oil prices at least $15 per barrel higher.

Barclays on Thursday said it expects a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure to result in a sustained 1 million barrels per day of disruption in supplies that could drive oil prices at least $15 per barrel higher.

"A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil upstream or export infrastructure poses a binary outcome for oil markets, as it could reduce the elevated spare capacity overhang on prices while inducing a significant geopolitical risk premium," the bank said in a note.

Barclay's fair value estimate for Brent next year is $85 per barrel.