Republicans grapple with next moves if Democrats replace Biden

Milwaukee: As Sam Brown, a Republican and Army veteran, has campaigned for Nevada’s US Senate seat against Sen Jacky Rosen, he has deployed a potent weapon against his Democratic foe: the unpopularity of President Joe Biden among the state’s voters.

Brown and his campaign have linked Rosen to Biden and his policies at every turn, slamming her support for him on the campaign trail and online and even occasionally referring to her as “Jacky Biden.”

Now, with Biden’s future at the top of the Democratic ticket in doubt, Republicans including Brown, campaigning in competitive downballot races that could decide control of Congress, are considering whether they will need to alter their messaging to account for a different Democratic presidential nominee — whether that is Vice President Kamala Harris or another challenger.

“It certainly changes things; changing a potential presidential candidate for November, that’s going to do something,” Brown said in an interview. “But at the end of the day, Jacky Rosen has her own record that she has to answer to.”

Republicans viewed Biden as an easy target even before the renewed questions over his age and mental acuity stemming from his disastrous June debate performance. Many voters already viewed him as too old for a second term, and Republicans bashed him for his handling of the border and tried tying him to soaring inflation and gas prices.

The slate of Republicans challenging Democratic senators delighted in repeating a particular statistic: the percentage of the time, often close to 100, that their opponent voted for Biden’s legislative priorities.

Still, asked directly whom they would prefer to be at the top of the Democratic ticket as they run in downballot races, GOP candidates at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee demurred. They said it did not matter to them because they could simply saddle Harris or another candidate with Biden’s baggage, and focus more narrowly on the pertinent issues in their particular race or on the Democratic platform as a whole.

But they offered a host of reasons for why Biden felt like a prime target, and some acknowledged they would need to readjust their strategy if a different candidate took the reins.

Rep. Carlos Giménez, R-Fla, said it did not matter to him “who’s on the top of the ticket” but added that Republicans would lose some particularly fertile lines of argument against Biden.

“With Biden, it’s the argument that not only his policies are bad, but he’s also incapable of being the president of the United States,” Giménez said. “Harris, she still has full capacity. Her policies still are bad for the United States, but you can’t make that other argument. So that changes somewhat.”

The Biden campaign said Biden had provided downballot Democrats with “an incredible agenda to run on.”

“This election, whether it’s top of ticket or a state election, will be decided on the issues that matter most to voters, which is why Democrats will win this November,” said Sarafina Chitika, a Biden campaign spokesperson.

Biden has given no public indication that he plans to bow to the rising pressure from within his party to step aside, and on Friday, he said in a statement that he planned to get “back on the campaign trail next week.” But if he does, his withdrawal could reverberate in key races for the US. Senate and House of Representatives, where some Democrats fear he has become a drag on their candidates.

The campaign of former President Donald Trump and its allies are among those who have relished facing Biden. This week, they ramped up efforts to criticize Democrats who hope for a different nominee, a tacit acknowledgment that Biden could be an easier opponent than alternatives.

Chris LaCivita, a top adviser to Trump’s campaign, said Democratic turmoil over selecting a new nominee was betraying the democratic process and the Biden campaign’s framing of the 2024 election as a battle over democracy.

“They all want to talk about this notion of the war against democracy,” but it was Democrats who were fomenting “a coup,” LaCivita said at an event in Milwaukee on Thursday. He added that if they force the president to drop out, Democrats would be “disenfranchising” the 14 million people who voted in their primaries.

On the convention floor Thursday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told the conservative network One America News that he thought the Democratic nominee would be either Harris or Michelle Obama, the wife of former President Barack Obama, who has said repeatedly that she is not interested in running for office.

“Both of them, I think it’s going to be a real challenge and a real fight,” said Cruz, who is running against Rep Colin Allred, a Dallas-area Democrat. “I think we will win in November. But I want every Republican to understand we’ve got a serious fight.”

In Harris, who performs better than Biden in some polls but not all, Republicans see an avatar of Biden and his policies. They view her as particularly vulnerable to attacks on immigration, because Biden tapped her to assist with the diplomatic mission of solving the “root causes” of migration from Central American countries.

Republicans took control of the House in 2022 in part by mobilising voters in the New York suburbs and taking control of districts that Biden had won by more than 10 percentage points two years earlier. Vulnerable Republicans in those districts would face considerable reelection challenges if Biden or Harris drove turnout in those areas, but some projected confidence that the vice president would not pose a significant threat.

“It’s the same race either way you look at it, whether you’re talking about Joe Biden or you’re talking about Kamala Harris. It’s the same bad policies. It’s the same bad decisions. It’s the same liabilities,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., who is locked in a tight reelection battle on Long Island. “Kamala Harris is Joe Biden, and Joe Biden is Kamala Harris.”

First-term Rep Mike Lawler, R-NY, who won his seat by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2022, said it made no difference if Biden dropped out or stayed in the race, arguing that Republicans were running against the Democratic platform rather than the top of their ticket — even if attacks against his Democratic opponent, Mondaire Jones, have highlighted Jones’ relationship with Biden.

Still, some admitted that they did not want to see Biden and his troubles walk out the door.

“I’d like to see him stay in the race,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-ND. “People will punish the Democratic Party if he is the nominee.”