Starmer all but set to become UK PM as Tories on course for historic defeat, mega poll shows

By Tom Rees

The UK’s Labour Party are on course for a landslide victory that could see the ruling Conservatives lose more than three-quarters of their seats, according to a detailed poll with a high sample size released Friday.

The poll by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now found that Labour are on track to win 476 seats at the July 4 election, a huge majority that would give leader Keir Starmer scope to make far-reaching reforms. Some 326 seats are needed for a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons.

It would leave the Tories on 66 seats, only seven ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll of over 10,000 voters — a higher-than-normal sample size — suggests the Conservatives are heading for a historic defeat despite their efforts to shore up support in the first weeks of the campaign. Sunak has announced a number of policies to help boost his party’s dire polling numbers, including the introduction of national services and tax cuts for pensioners.

The survey puts Labour winning 46% of the vote compared to just 19% for the Tories.

The poll — which accounted for tactical voting in certain areas — suggests a number of prominent Tories are set to lose their seats, including Home Secretary James Cleverly and potential future leadership contenders Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch.

While all opinion polls show Labour heading for a comfortable victory, they have ranged in the predicted size of the win for the opposition party.

It came as Starmer said in an interview with the Times newspaper that his “number one mission is wealth creation.” He said his party wants to “win from the centre ground” after on Friday bowing to pressure in backing leftwinger Diane Abbott to stand for Labour.