Taiwan sees a higher price for US support as Trump returns to power

Taipei, Taiwan: In 2016, Taiwan's president called Donald Trump to congratulate him after he won the presidential election. Trump took the call, becoming the first American president or president-elect to speak to a Taiwanese leader in decades.

This time, after Trump won a second term in the White House, Taiwan was quick to deny reports that its current leader, Lai Ching-te, was seeking a similar phone call with the president-elect.

The contrast was telling.

Taiwan appears to be preparing for a more delicate, possibly testy, relationship with Trump upon his return to the White House. On the campaign trail, Trump had suggested that Taiwan should pay the United States for helping defend the island from China, and complained that Taiwan had stolen America's business in semiconductors.

"There is more anxiety this time" in Taiwan about Trump taking office, Chen Ming-chi, a former senior adviser on Taiwan's National Security Council, said in an interview.

By "declaring that we are not going to seek a congratulatory phone call, that means we are more realistic," said Chen, who teaches at Taiwan's National Tsing Hua University. Lai issued a congratulatory statement about Trump's victory.

Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are high, with frequent Chinese military drills stoking fears of an accidental conflict. A call with Trump could prompt a forceful reaction from China, which claims the island as its territory and resents whenever Taiwan acts like, or is treated as, a sovereign nation.

For instance, that 2016 call between Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, who was then Taiwan's president, drew condemnation from China. The United States had avoided leader-level contacts with Taiwan after it severed ties in 1979 to switch to recognition of China.

The call was only the first of several notable steps by Trump that bolstered US support for Taiwan.

His administration later increased weapons sales to Taiwan and sent senior officials to visit, in defiance of Beijing's complaints. Such moves gained Trump wide popularity in Taiwan even as much of the world soured on American leadership under him.

Now, Taiwan is also on the receiving end of Trump's bluntly transactional diplomacy. And the lack of formal relations means Lai won't get to make his case in a face-to-face meeting with the new US leader.

Trump's complaints about Taiwan's military spending and semiconductor industry are adding to the pressure on Taiwan to buy more American weapons and increase investment in building chip plants in the United States.

"You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business, OK?" he said on a recent episode of "The Joe Rogan Experience," a popular podcast. "They don't pay us money for the protection, you know? The mob makes you pay money, right?"

Chen said Taiwan would have to adjust its approach to securing the support of the United States and its allies.

"In the past few years, we built our value on two things: democracy and chips," he said. "But democracy is not a focus of the coming Trump administration, and the chips have turned from our advantage to a bit of a problem, because Trump says we are stealing jobs."

Taiwan's trade may also suffer if Trump acts on vows to steeply increase tariffs on goods imported into the United States. And some in Taiwan worry that Trump may lose sight of the island's concerns as he focuses on his relationship -- part pugilistic, part admiring -- with China's strongman leader, Xi Jinping.

Despite Taiwan's lack of formal diplomatic relationship with Washington, it relies on US support to counter China's growing power and military pressure. The partnership deepened under Trump in his first term and then under President Joe Biden, while US rivalry with China intensified.

Taiwanese officials have long sought to work closely with both Republicans and Democrats, and are sure to try to build bridges with Trump's nominees for his next administration.

Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. This year's proposed budget would increase Taiwan's outlays on defense to about 2.6 per cent of the island's total economic output. But Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 per cent of its gross domestic product.

Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Lai. His party does not have a majority in the legislature, and Lai also wants to spend more on domestic priorities, such as green energy.

Trump has signaled doubt as to how quickly and effectively the United States could help defend against a Chinese invasion. "Taiwan's a tough situation," Trump told The Washington Post. "Don't forget, it's 9,000 miles away" from the United States, he said.

Such comments are "a certain way to say, listen, you have to increase your defense budget. That means you buy more American weapons," said Miles Yu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who was a China policy adviser to Mike Pompeo, a secretary of state in the Trump administration.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, and the island's other leading chipmakers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United States. (Industry experts have said that Trump's accusation against Taiwan's semiconductor makers is groundless, noting that the Taiwan companies merely provide manufacturing services to American chip giants.)

Last week, some Taiwanese officials played down the potential harm of the tariff plans, noting that Trump has threatened even higher tariffs on goods from China, which could open up opportunities for Taiwanese businesses.

"For Taiwan, there are actually more pros than cons," Liu Chin-ching, the minister in charge of Taiwan's National Development Council, told lawmakers Tuesday. Trump's tariff proposals could drive more orders from China to Taiwan, and encourage Taiwanese manufacturers to leave China, he said.

"The United States will impose technology restrictions to defend its own interests," Liu said, "but Taiwan will basically go along with these restrictions, and we believe that we will have opportunities to benefit from them."

Taiwan will also closely watch Trump's response to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Taiwan's government has supported American aid to Ukraine, presenting it as proof of united resistance to authoritarian threats, whether from Moscow or possibly Beijing.

But Trump has said that he wants to quickly end that war. An abrupt reduction in help for Ukraine may shake Taiwanese confidence, several experts said.

"Taiwan's leaders will view Trump's handling of Ukraine as an early warning for whether and how Trump would stand up to Chinese pressure on Taiwan in the event of crisis," said Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.

Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei, pressing its message that Taiwanese people cannot rely on the United States -- and should accept unification with China.

"Whether the United States wants to 'protect Taiwan' or 'harm Taiwan,' I believe that most Taiwanese compatriots have made their own rational judgments," said Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson in Beijing for the Chinese government office that deals with Taiwan.

Taiwanese people, Zhu added, "clearly know that the United States always pursues 'America First' and Taiwan may change from a 'pawn' to a 'sacrificed piece' at any time."