<p>New York: Thousands who gambled on the US election are looking forward to a potential payout of about $450 million from online gambling sites after Donald Trump was elected president in a stunning comeback - but some may have to wait to collect their haul.</p>.<p>Online election betting sites exploded into view in the final weeks of the election due to the way former President Trump's odds on so-called "prediction markets" sharply diverged from opinion polls, which had the race locked in a dead heat.</p>.<p>Prediction markets can "measure crowd wisdom where no hard data is available," said Samuel S.-H. Wang, a Princeton University neuroscience professor who is also the director of the Electoral Innovation Lab, which studies elections and electoral reform.</p>.<p>In a triumph over traditional polling, the prediction markets proved more prescient after Trump won the polarized race. Proponents of prediction markets argue they are a far more accurate gauge of the true state of the race, sweeping up a broader view of outcomes and catching, in real time, momentum, media influence and breaking news that can have seismic impacts on campaigns.</p>.From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as Trump claims victory.<p>"The real test will be: do these markets provide a better forecast than polls," said Koleman Strumpf, a political economy professor at Wake Forest University who studies prediction markets.</p>.<p>Two of the largest of these exchanges, crypto-fueled, offshore Polymarket which sells contracts to overseas bettors and US-based Kalshi which serves US residents, together ended up with a purse of about $450 million as of Tuesday evening, according to data from the companies. A third site, PredictIt, is an academic research group and does not disclose its payouts.</p>.<p>In total, Kalshi said 28,000 people had made bets on a Harris win, while 40,000 bet on Trump. Polymarket did not respond to a request for information about how many people had placed bets on its site.</p>.<p>Polymarket, which counts Peter Thiel's Founders Fund as an investor, allows bettors to keep making wagers until the bet closes out, which occurred once the <em>Associated Press, Fox</em> and <em>NBC</em> had all called the electoral college for Trump early Wednesday morning. The payout was estimated at $287 million Tuesday evening.</p>.<p>On Kalshi, bettors can keep making wagers until inauguration day on January 20, 2025. Kalshi's payout pot stood at $159 million Tuesday evening.</p>.<p>Betting on prediction markets is not the same as doing so against a traditional betting house. Rather, shares are created when opposing sides of a bet come to an agreement such that the sum of what each side is willing to pay equals $1.</p>.<p>The Polymarket bettor set for the biggest payout is a Paris-based investor known as the "Polymarket whale" who made $40 million worth of Trump-related bets on the site. If Trump goes on to win the popular vote, he will walk away with $80 million, according to his accounts on the site.</p>.<p>The trader's huge Polymarket bets came in tandem with a dramatic rise in Trump's chances on the exchanges.</p>
<p>New York: Thousands who gambled on the US election are looking forward to a potential payout of about $450 million from online gambling sites after Donald Trump was elected president in a stunning comeback - but some may have to wait to collect their haul.</p>.<p>Online election betting sites exploded into view in the final weeks of the election due to the way former President Trump's odds on so-called "prediction markets" sharply diverged from opinion polls, which had the race locked in a dead heat.</p>.<p>Prediction markets can "measure crowd wisdom where no hard data is available," said Samuel S.-H. Wang, a Princeton University neuroscience professor who is also the director of the Electoral Innovation Lab, which studies elections and electoral reform.</p>.<p>In a triumph over traditional polling, the prediction markets proved more prescient after Trump won the polarized race. Proponents of prediction markets argue they are a far more accurate gauge of the true state of the race, sweeping up a broader view of outcomes and catching, in real time, momentum, media influence and breaking news that can have seismic impacts on campaigns.</p>.From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as Trump claims victory.<p>"The real test will be: do these markets provide a better forecast than polls," said Koleman Strumpf, a political economy professor at Wake Forest University who studies prediction markets.</p>.<p>Two of the largest of these exchanges, crypto-fueled, offshore Polymarket which sells contracts to overseas bettors and US-based Kalshi which serves US residents, together ended up with a purse of about $450 million as of Tuesday evening, according to data from the companies. A third site, PredictIt, is an academic research group and does not disclose its payouts.</p>.<p>In total, Kalshi said 28,000 people had made bets on a Harris win, while 40,000 bet on Trump. Polymarket did not respond to a request for information about how many people had placed bets on its site.</p>.<p>Polymarket, which counts Peter Thiel's Founders Fund as an investor, allows bettors to keep making wagers until the bet closes out, which occurred once the <em>Associated Press, Fox</em> and <em>NBC</em> had all called the electoral college for Trump early Wednesday morning. The payout was estimated at $287 million Tuesday evening.</p>.<p>On Kalshi, bettors can keep making wagers until inauguration day on January 20, 2025. Kalshi's payout pot stood at $159 million Tuesday evening.</p>.<p>Betting on prediction markets is not the same as doing so against a traditional betting house. Rather, shares are created when opposing sides of a bet come to an agreement such that the sum of what each side is willing to pay equals $1.</p>.<p>The Polymarket bettor set for the biggest payout is a Paris-based investor known as the "Polymarket whale" who made $40 million worth of Trump-related bets on the site. If Trump goes on to win the popular vote, he will walk away with $80 million, according to his accounts on the site.</p>.<p>The trader's huge Polymarket bets came in tandem with a dramatic rise in Trump's chances on the exchanges.</p>