The attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally Saturday will probably fundamentally change the messaging and direction of the presidential campaign and enhance Trump's standing, at least in the near term.
As we prepare for the Republican National Convention, which opens in Milwaukee on Monday, here are several possible effects of the shooting:
The image: Trump's instinct to raise his clenched fist, with blood streaking across his face, and to repeatedly shout the word "fight" from the stage, just seconds after he was injured, was gold for his campaign. It created an indelible image and captured the essence of Trump's MAGA movement: under attack but defiant, bloody but unbowed.
As a person who spent the first part of my career as a graphic designer and art director, I immediately saw the visual power and nearly infinite graphic possibilities of this image. The raised, clinched fist has a long history in propagandistic imagery as a symbol of resistance and revolution in Western popular culture, dating back at least to the French Revolution of 1848 as depicted in Honoré Daumier's circa 1860 painting, 'The Uprising'.
Victimisation: Trump has spent much of his time in presidential politics concocting a narrative of victimisation, insisting that he and his movement were under attack and needed to fight back to save "our country." He, and his supporters who were killed and injured, can now portray themselves as legitimate victims.
Neutralising criticism: Becoming victims makes it easier for members of the right to neutralize discussion about the violence of Jan 6 for the remainder of the campaign. Even the issue of gun control will likely not resonate. Rather than seeing this as evidence that we should restrict gun access, Republicans will try to justify owning more guns to defend themselves from political violence.
The legend: Years ago, Trump had already become a folk hero among his supporters for fighting the establishment. Another common feature among many folk heroes is that they evade or survive capture, punishment or death. By surviving this attempt on his life, Trump's legend only grows among his faithful.
Outreach to Black voters: It will be interesting to see how this incident fits into the campaign's attempts to reach out to Black voters. Trump has already suggested that his indictments created a sort of kinship with Black people who have been unfairly treated by the criminal justice system. Black people have also been subjected to unimaginable violence in this country and many Black leaders have been assassinated.
The rapper 50 Cent, who said last month that Black men identify with Trump, rose to fame on the fact that he had been shot nine times and survived. Soon after the attempt on Trump's life, the rapper was trending on social media.
Empathy: Many voters have never found Trump a particularly sympathetic figure, but it is natural to empathize with a person who endures such an event, even if you disagree with the person's politics. That may allow some voters to set aside legitimate worries about the destructive potential of a second Trump term.
The last few weeks have completely changed the race. Liberals have weakened Biden by painting him as feeble and impaired, while this shooting has likely lifted Trump by making him seem resilient and defiant.