Trump’s win likely to prolong uncertainty around Gaza ceasefire talks

Jerusalem: Donald Trump’s election victory is plunging efforts to reach a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip into further uncertainty, after a year of failed attempts by the Biden administration floundered because of irreconcilable demands from Israel and Hamas.

For months, leaders across the region — in Israel, Lebanon, Gaza and Qatar — have taken a wait-and-see approach to the U.S. election. It is unclear what will come next, but any firm advancement on a cease-fire, if there is one at all, would most likely be delayed until after Trump’s inauguration in January, analysts said.

The sense was that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel “was waiting for the results of the US presidential election to make a move,” said Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based research group. “Why would he give Biden anything now?”

More than 43,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the war began, including thousands of women and children, according to health officials in the enclave, and Palestinians in Gaza had been skeptical about whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris would do much to improve their situation. The war was set off by the Hamas-led attack in October 2023 in which Israeli authorities said roughly 1,200 people in Israel were killed and about 250 were taken hostage.

The Biden administration had urged both sides to bridge their remaining differences and agree to a three-stage truce. As part of the proposed accord, the phases would see Israel end the war against Hamas, withdraw from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners; Hamas would free the 101 hostages still held there. (Proposals for a short-term truce were rejected by Hamas, which demanded an end to the war as a condition for agreeing to a deal.)

Netanyahu has welcomed the election of Trump, who was a staunch defender of Israel during his first term. He was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his victory, and spoke to him Wednesday evening. The two agreed “to work together for the sake of Israel’s security,” according to a statement from the Israeli prime minister’s office.

But how Trump might rearrange the chessboard is still unclear. He has expressed broad support for Israel’s right to defend itself after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.

At the same time, he has called on Israel to “finish up” the campaign — a position that would clash with many in the hard-line Israeli government who support indefinite Israeli control in Gaza.

“I’m not going to start a war,” Trump told supporters in his victory speech. “I’m going to stop wars.”

Even Hamas, the Palestinian armed group, seemed to keep its options open about how Trump might act once in power. “Our stance on the new American administration will depend on its positions and practical policy toward the Palestinian people and its legitimate rights,” Hamas said in a statement Wednesday.

People interviewed in Gaza on Thursday were divided over whether they thought Trump would be willing or able to help Israel and Hamas reach a cease-fire deal.

“I believe Trump will focus on economic growth and strategic deals with Arab countries,” said Muhanned al-Farra, 38, who owned an auto repair shop in Rafah, in southern Gaza, before he fled to Khan Younis with his family. “I hope his election will bring positive change.”

Others were more doubtful. Mohammed al-Amassi, 28, who fled to Deir al-Balah from his home in Gaza City earlier in the war, said he thought the election result meant “grim times ahead for us, no doubt.”

He pointed to Trump’s record of support for Israel and said he feared a new term would see him “going even more in Israel’s direction, with no thought for the hopes or dreams of Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.”

The election of Trump appeared to immediately relieve the pressure on Netanyahu — at least for now — to reach a truce in Gaza under the terms backed by President Joe Biden and regional mediators.

Netanyahu has resisted months of efforts by Biden administration officials to agree to the proposed cease-fire, refusing to clearly commit to permanently ending the war and stipulating continued Israeli control of Gaza’s border with Egypt. Hamas has rejected both those positions.

With Biden now officially a lame duck leader, those attempts are likely to lose their teeth, according to Stephens.

“I don’t see how the Biden administration would have the leverage to make this work, and I’m not sure the Israelis — or at least Netanyahu — are that interested in moving it forward," he said.