Why Democratic Senate control seems to be slipping away

By Nate Cohn

The math for Senate control is pretty simple. For Democrats, it isn't adding up.

The Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are expected to flip West Virginia -- where Joe Manchin is retiring. Any additional Republican victory in November in seven red or purple states currently held by Democrats would ensure GOP control of the chamber, provided the Republicans hold their own states.

Thursday's New York Times/Siena College poll finds Republicans poised to flip that additional seat: Montana.

Tim Sheehy, a Republican, leads longtime Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by 7 percentage points, 52 per cent to 44 per cent (figures rounded).

Before Thursday, Democrats led nearly every Times/Siena poll of the contested Senate races for months, including in Ohio -- where Sherrod Brown led by 4 points in a state Donald Trump won by 8 four years ago. A positive Montana result for Democrats would have kept that string going, giving them a path to Senate control. They didn't get it.

Even so, the Montana result isn't a surprise. Tester hasn't led in a public poll since mid-August, and most of the data hasn't shown an especially close race. His path to victory -- and therefore the Democratic path to Senate control -- looked daunting even before he fell behind in the polls, as Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020. The poll finds Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by a similar 17 points.

Without Montana, the Democratic path to the Senate would require flipping a red state. The Times/Siena polls suggest it won't be easy. On paper, the two easiest options ought to be Texas and Florida, but the polls find the two Republican incumbents ahead -- Ted Cruz by 4 points in Texas, and Rick Scott by 9 in Florida.

If these were the final results, it would almost be the end of the line for Democratic Senate hopes. But there's one last race to be considered -- in Nebraska, where an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, has been competitive in the early polling against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osborn said he wouldn't caucus with either party if he won, which would leave Senate control uncertain.

An unexpected result in a race with an independent candidate can't be ruled out. As long as the polls show a close race in Nebraska, Democrats can hold out hope (of course, they would also have to win all the races they're favored in). But it's worth noting that similar independent efforts in Kansas in 2014 and Utah in 2022 ended with Republican victories. The Times/Siena poll of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District two weeks ago found Osborn well ahead in the state's only Democratic district, but not by enough to suggest he was ahead statewide.

Texas over Montana?

With Tester falling behind in Montana, there's a case that Texas might just be the Democrats' better -- if hardly good -- path to holding the Senate.

While the idea of a blue Texas might seem unimaginable, it's not necessarily that far-fetched anymore. Cruz won by less than 3 points in 2018, and Trump won by less than 6 in 2020. If it weren't for Republican gains among Hispanic voters in recent years, Texas would probably be a tossup in the presidential race this year. And interestingly, Cruz does fare worse than Trump among Hispanic voters in the poll.

Still, Cruz's 4-point lead over Colin Allred -- which is in line with other polling -- seems close to robust given that the state will probably vote for Trump in November. And from a financial standpoint, a serious effort to contest the state would cost Democrats hundreds of millions. Perhaps that's what Democrats should have committed to in a plausibly winnable state, but instead Republicans have outspent the Democrats in Texas.